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1. Dollar has been boxed in a tiny range since the break down last Friday. Without an decisive break to either direction, we could expect a lot of choppy price actions. Since this is the FOMC week, it is quite understandable that the dollar is waiting for the fed to drop the shoes first before taking any meaningful move.
2. The head and shoulder's pattern identified in our weekend prep has failed early Monday morning that Euro broke support briefing and quickly trap back above the neckline. Now the Euro is range bounding in a mirror reflection fashion mimicking what Dollar index is doing.
Crude is forming a consolidation range at the high of 72 dollars. Yesterday it has attempted to break out, but failed.
It has been rejected from the top side of the range this morning.
I am anticipating for a break of the corrective structure to the down side some time today.
This morning I was still suffer from inactive brain and brain fog the first hour of trading from 8:30 t0 9:30. This is a recurring problem that have to be resolved properly, otherwise, I am doing my bank account such a big dis-favour.
Because there is a couple of quick and usually easy (if you have done your home work and get the directional bias right) London opening trades in Euro and Pound nearly everyday between 8:00 to 9:30 that is going to give you a big boost both to your account and your confidence. Just imagine first half an hour of the trading day, you are already booking a nice winning trade.
In addition, I have seriously messed up in two occasions this morning. The first one is the euro consolidation range long trade that I have identified the strength around 10:52 in one of the shallow down bar and a position in opened. However, the market has moved into the consolidation phase that it finally broke out at 13:00. After seeing no upside development in one hour, I have closed the position. It is also a recurring problem that if I would keep the position in with a proper stop placement, it is a trade would work out. But due to the mindset of self-doubt and lack, i have chosen a safety of no position than an open position during the lunch time.
Secondly, I have identified a potential break down in Crude this morning. However, it is a potential break down until it actually breaks. I have positioned in anticipation of such a break without seeing it breaking down first. This has resulted in a full stop out. This trade has taught me a lesson of holding up my judgement and waiting for confirmation.
1. Yesterday ES had a bearish gap relative to Friday's close and the gap has never been closed.
But it has closed gap of last Thursday. ES has formed a balanced profile in the gap.
The overnight session has nearly 100% long inventory and we are likely to see a bullish gap above yesterday's balance out NY open.
If that gap is not closed quickly, then go with the gap. It is a very simple yet powerful rule advocated by Jim Dalton.
Hence I am going to hold a bullish bias to the US equity so long as yesterday's VAH @2926 is held.
2. NQ has been dominated by the locals that Friday has squeezed shorts and cleared a bunch of seller's stop orders, and yesterday, it has cleared a whole bunch of Buyer's stop orders. Now it is trading back into the range with a bullish tilt. NQ has closed the performance gap against ES due to yesterday's bullish price action, but we can't conclude that the money is actively shifting out of the safe sector into NQ yet. If it is able to outperform ES today, then the risk appetite of the market would be shifted to full risk on mode again.
I have made the same mistake again!
After seeing the break, I have shorted in the market at the exact low tick of the swing. How fucking smart I am!
Why can't I wait for for the pullback before shorting into this?
The decision to short in the market was completely out of FOMO.
A terrible amateur mistake. What a shame!
1. Dollar index is still range bounding in a small box between 94.40 and 93.82 in the wait-and-see mode waiting for a hawkish or dovish rate hike. Since it is in the middle of the trading range, there is very little edge to trade it. If you point a gun at my head to come up with a directional bias, I would say it has a higher probability to test lower than higher.
2. The euro is pretty much a mirror reflection of the dollar index.
Last week was such a combination of poorly timed events prevent me from trading properly like a pro. Instead I traded more like wanker that Tuesday to Wednesday there is no trade as the market sit passively awaiting the FED. When FOMC meeting starts, I was preparing diner for the kids. Thursday morning there were some interesting moves, but i had a meeting with my lawyer. Can't trade again. Friday was taking care of my kids for a whole day, again not able to trade. If I keep a pace of work like this going forward, i would be well on track to become a street sweeper, very soon!
1. The dollar had a great move after the Fed announcement that it falsely break down first to suck in shorts and then broke out the key pivotal level of 94.35 to the upside.The 95 mark was quickly taken out in a breeze. There was a bit of pullback late afternoon last Friday, but the 95 level is holding as support.
For the next week, I would watch 95 mark as the key level to watch to prescribe a directional bias -- so long as the 95 support being held firm as support throughout the week, I would hold a bullish bias to Dollar that it is very likely to reach above the double top weak structure beyond 95.80 to run for stops. The 95.80 coincides with the 61.8 fib with the whole decline from Aug 20th. If the 95.80 being taken out decisively, then the 78.6 fib level is another place the bears are like to strike their shorts, because it is the completion point of a bearish Cypher pattern.
2. The directional bias of the Euro is a mirror reflection of the bias on the dollar index.
