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Yeah I have put on trades and gone to appointments before without much stress, trusting the market would at least hold my level. I definitely feel a lot more comfortable with oil since I started trading it last year. I think about probabilities. If the oil market is down $2 on the day I would say there is a 60-70% probability that the market will a least hold the low price and find support. Also if its late in the day like noon and the market is pushing highs and price is staying within 15 ticks of that high then the market will likely continue grinding higher and a short is probably not good there. I also look at velocity. If the oil market is pushing lows and the price breaks through the low with a gap down of 20 ticks then price will likely continue lower and a long is probably not good there. So there are ways to avoid bad trades as well.
Oil market down 4% right now, looking for longs
I think the micro oil contract is gaining popularity with over 100K contracts traded today in the July contract.
Long @9:23am EDT
Entry 70.37
Exit 70.40
Result +$3.00 stopped out with trailing stop
Long @10:45am EDT
Entry 69.61
Exit 69.63
Result +$2.00 stopped out with trailing stop
Long @10:48am EDT
Entry 69.55
Exit 69.58
Result +$3.00 stopped out with trailing stop
Long @12:51pm EDT
Entry 69.37
Exit 69.40
Result +$3.00 stopped out with trailing stop
I missed the long off the bottom in the oil market this morning I had a doctor appointment. That long would have been good with an entry at 8am to 9am when the price rallied 200 ticks off of the low of about $67. Now nearing the highs of the day and shorts may be in play.
Also, its not even noon and the MCLN3 contract has traded more than 100K contracts, I am impressed with that.
1:38pm no trades, price has been in the middle of the day range which I usually don't trade
May 1: -$49.72 on 3 MCL trades
May 2: +$91.28 on 3 MCL trades
May 3: +$71.28 on 3 MCL trades
May 4: No trades
May 5: -$95.48 on 2 MCL trades
May 8: +$9.76 on 1 MCL trade
May 9: +$67.76 on 1 MCL trade
May 10: +$22.52 on 2 MCL trades
May 11: +$50.28 on 3 MCL trades
May 12: No trades
May 15: No trades
May 16: No trades
May 17: -63.96 on 4 MCL trades
May 18: -29.96 on 4 MCL trades
May 19: +$0.52 on 2 MCL trades
May 22: +$27.76 on 1 MCL trade
May 23: No trades
May 24: -$22.96 on 4 MCL trades
May 25: +$49.28 on 3 MCL trades
May 26: +$0.76 on 1 MCL trade
May 29: No trades
May 30: +$2.04 on 4 MCL trades
May 31: No trades
Total Profit with fees included: +$129.12
Commissions fees: $49.20
Exchange fees: 41.00 NFA: $1.64
I am transitioning over to trade the ES. Trading micro oil has been great learning experience but I am no longer interested. The whole time I was in oil I had the ES in the back of my mind. I think I have had FOMO about the ES. There is something that excites me about the ES. I think it's the high volume. Everyone talks about the ES and I want to be part of the action which goes back to the FOMO.
My problem will be trading the ES with a micro sized account. For now I will take one trade a day and risk one tick per trade. I know this sounds absurd and destined for failure but this is what I want to do. People will probably say trade the MES or paper trade until I can save up to trade the ES properly. I refuse the trade the MES for reasons that are not completely clear at this time. Maybe I think I am to good to trade the micro I don't know. Paper trading has never done anything for me and I feel I have learned nothing from paper trading. I believe trading real money no matter how small is key to getting better. I have learned more risking one tick on the ES of real money than paper trading the ES.
Anyways let me know what you think about my plan if you want to even if you only have negative criticism. Thanks.
Excited to trade today. I am happy to trade the ES again. I will be focused on taking losses quick. I will be taking one trade in the ES per day. For my one trade I will place a stop loss of one tick so ideally I will lose 5 ticks per week. Obviously this is an ideal situation with zero slippage. Realistically I will likely realize larger losses occasionally even with a one tick stop. I have no plan for winning trades because there will most likely not be any winners. I am trying to learn to take and accept losses. I get into a mind set that I will not take a loss and end up taking huge losses as a result so I am trying to end that practice.
I realize using a 1 tick hard stop order will result in a loss 99% of the time but this is what I want to do no matter what logic tells me. I guess that is what my heart wants.
I plan on taking my one ES trade at 11:10 am EDT. I want to take the trade in the morning so before noon at a time when the price action is quiet and there is a limited chance that news will affect the price.
Short @9:37am EDT
Entry 4299.25
Exit 4299.50
Result -$12.50
I couldn't wait until 11:10am like I said I would lol
At this point I am 99% concerned with my losses and put very little energy into what to do with a winner. I have looked over my past performances and it has been the losses that have killed me and it was not the profits that broke me. You would think I would already know this after 13 years of trading. I'm a slow learner lol. The hard part going forward will be to not get disillusioned by easy profits and forget about taking losses. In the pursuit of easy profits I will fade into the mind set of holding losses as long as possible resulting in terrible and horrendous results. I will say to myself "well I will just take a quick 4 tick profit right here" completely forgetting/ignoring the need to set a stop loss.
