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I ended up going to the loo once my alarms went off, and things were certainly different when I got back, haha. Yeah, retrospective trading doesn't provide a whole lot of value since anyone can say price did "x" after the fact. Maybe I'll experiment here and there with some live stuff. Not sure!
Oh, the 20-minute part I wrote about was just how long it took me to identify that price was in a range this morning. In general though, in the first bit after the market opens, I'm watching to see what price is doing at different swing highs and lows. Which ones are being respected, and which ones are being ignored.
I'm trading solely from a chart, although I've casually looked at T&S before when there's been weird price movement. There was a time a while back when every now and then there would be this drop or surge in prices in a matter of seconds. Price moved insanely fast compared to how it had been behaving prior. When I checked the T&S there would be this wall of orders, all at the same price or within a tick, all at basically the same time, BUT, in 1-3 lot orders. My best guess is that it was a large order that got chopped up into nuggets, but that's just speculation.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Again I'm looking at what has already happened so take this with a grain of salt.
What kind of range would you trade?
What are you looking for to enter a trade?
This morning the chart showed a range that started wide then narrowed. The top of the range was consistant but the bottom was getting narrower. (on the chart rising bottoms) It is the kind of set-up I look for on a larger time frame when trading stocks. A breakout from that range is an entry signal. (This always works except when it doesn't )
"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Hmm, I would trade a range that had wide enough swings to make it feasible to trade it like I would trade a trend. So, either a higher timeframe range, or a really volatile range. Otherwise, I'd wait for a breakout, but I don't usually trade breakouts. I will when I have more experience with them though.
In general terms, I'm looking for either buyers or sellers to step into the market at what I think are key areas. Those areas are somewhat dependent on the current trend, but also the prior trend. It just depends! I'm more comfortable with trading an upward breakout if it's preceded by a downtrend, or at least a good move lower. I'm less interested in buying a breakout from a consolidation that forms near prior highs. In my limited and novice experience, the contrarian breakouts seem to work out more often than with-trend breakouts. I don't have any statistics to back that up (or disprove it), but it's on the to-do list to study them.
Lol, I get that. Pretty much all of the patterns I look at are the same way. Sometimes when they fail it's helpful information, and again, sometimes not!
FOMC Minutes today at 2:00 PM, so no trading after 1:55 PM. Alarms are set.
MES Pre-Market:
Some volatility earlier from what I assume was the PPI release.
As of right now, price appears to be in a range between the high (4,415.00) and the low (4,394.00) of the (assumed) reaction to the release. No plans to enter if price breaks out, but waiting to see what happens, if anything!
Plotting an anchored VWAP at the beginning of the volatility (8:30 AM) looks interesting. I don't trade with VWAP, but I can't trade right now and was looking for something to do.
Seems like the range I mentioned earlier may actually be within a larger range, with a high at 4,419.00 and a low at 4,388.00. I don't know though, it's just what it looks like to me right now. I could be totally off, or missing something.
Initial breakdown, then rally back up into the range. I consider that to be a range expansion, but I could be wrong. Looks like price is trying to breakout on the other end at the moment (not shown).
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