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Decided not to trade today, and instead focus on research and what I want to do next week. The morning started off good, but then little annoyances built into an irritable mood, and past experience tells me that I was primed to lose money today. Not interested! Until I can get to a point where I can prevent myself from getting into an irritable mood, a hard cut-off is best, I think.
1. Avoid Trading During Ranges
Didn't do so hot with this this week. Took a long time to identify a range earlier in the week, was a bit confused later on, and then flat-out forgot that the market was ranging (*face-palm*). Not ideal to say the least.
Ranges seem to be tricky with intraday trading, because if you focus too much on timeframe 'x,' then you may not notice that you're within a range that's easy to see on a higher timeframe. If the range is wide enough it may not matter, but it would still be good to know because it could affect where your profit targets get set.
2. Don't Exit Early
This is clearly an area that I struggle with. It's the classic exiting-for-a-small-profit-out-of-fear-that-you'll-lose-it-all schtick. While I did do better as far as waiting until price had moved past my initial profit target, I still exited at least one trade early based on... nothing. Just fear.
I know fear. I'm basically scared of everything. In light of that, I expose myself to my fears when I have the opportunity to do so. It's an emotional workout, but I can't remember a time when I regretted doing it. So, I need to work on two main things in this department as far as trading goes. 1. Practice holding onto trades through fear. Work it out like a muscle. Get used to how it feels. Accept the uncertainty. 2. Work on identifying legitimate profit targets based off of the price action. Identify them and stick to them.
3. Focus on Support/Resistance Failures
I did better with this goal than the other two in my opinion. It was definitely a struggle at first because I'm not used to zeroing in on a single timeframe for trading decisions anymore. I wanted to test out an idea that I had, and I did that. Will I keep trading like this? No. My chart got too cluttered, and I got lost in the weeds on more than one occasion. I think I'll stick with the multiple timeframe approach.
Cattywampus Ramblings
I'm wondering if everything just boils down to Dow's/Wyckoff's/Whoever-Else's ideas of accumulation/distribution, and markups/markdowns. It makes sense that deep pockets will want deeper pockets and will angle their capital accordingly. I've also wondered if it's all just a massive grift.
Some strategies may only have a slight edge, and if a lot of people try to exploit them, it may make the strategy too competitive to profitably participate in if you have smaller pockets. Or not, I don't know!
Extra Cheese
I've had a lot of fun writing in this journal so far. The competition was a nice impetus to get me to participate in the community, which I've wanted to do for a while. Journaling also acts as an added layer of accountability, which I'm very much a fan of. It's also a way for me to confront fear, which is a bonus!
1. Stick To The Plan
The plan for this week is to use a tri-chart approach to time trades that go along with the Primary trend. It's my current belief, and time/experience will tell me if I'm wrong, that the concept of Primary, Intermediate, and Minor trends can apply to the market intraday. I view what I'm trying to do as crowd surfing essentially, and for my needs, I need to focus on larger crowds. That means a higher timeframe for determining the Primary trend, a lower timeframe for the Intermediate trend, and an even smaller timeframe for the Minor trend.
I'll be focusing on three four setups. Primary Trend Reversal (PTR), Primary Trend Continuation (PTC), Primary Trend Uncertainty (PTU), and Primary Counter-Trend (PCT). Each has its own specific profit targets, as well as acceptable early exit rules (which are pretty much the same for all three four).
If PTR, then I'll look for an entry signal on the Intermediate timeframe and fine-tune my entry with the Minor timeframe. If no entry forms on the Minor timeframe, then an entry based on the Intermediate timeframe (if a signal presents itself) is acceptable as long as the initial risk is acceptably small.
If PTC, then I'll look for an entry signal on the Intermediate timeframe and fine-tune my entry with the Minor timeframe. If no entry forms on the Minor timeframe, then an entry based on the Intermediate timeframe (if a signal presents itself) is acceptable as long as the initial risk is acceptably small.
If PTU, then I'll look for an entry signal on the Intermediate timeframe and fine-tune my entry with the Minor timeframe. If no entry forms on the Minor timeframe, then an entry based on the Intermediate timeframe (if a signal presents itself) is acceptable as long as the initial risk is acceptably small.
If PCT, then I'll look for an entry signal on the Intermediate timeframe and fine-tune my entry with the Minor timeframe. If no entry forms on the Minor timeframe, then an entry based on the Intermediate timeframe (if a signal presents itself) is acceptable as long as the initial risk is acceptably small.
There's a common theme here, lol.
2. Don't Skip The Intermediate Timeframe
I want to make sure that I don't go from the Primary timeframe to the Minor timeframe. I want to go Primary, THEN Intermediate, THEN minor.
1. Stick To The Plan
I didn't stick to the plan. I took a short counter-trend trade earlier today, and I hadn't planned for counter-trend trading. It's something I should have included originally, but didn't, so rule no. 1 was broken. I also exited early again, because I wasn't sure where the profit target should be, which is something I should have known prior to entering the trade.
2. Don't Skip The Intermediate Timeframe
While not perfect, I did what I would consider "okay" with this goal. Will do better with both no. 1 and no. 2 tomorrow.
I'll be retroactively adding Primary Counter-Trend to the setups list in post #42.
I'm @Oracle from the NexusFi community. I'm here to provide you with a summary of your trades and to help you identify areas for improvement. Here's what I've observed from your trading history:
Following Rules: You've recognized the importance of adhering to your trading plan but have admitted to exiting trades early occasionally. This is a good step towards improvement. Remember, discipline and consistency are key in trading.
Misreading the Market: Several instances show you've been on the wrong end of the market due to misinterpretation of charts and market conditions. This hints at the need for further study and practice in chart analysis and understanding market context.
Stop Loss Adjustments: There's no information on whether you've been removing or altering your stop loss orders. It's crucial to have a solid risk management strategy in place, and stop loss orders are a part of that.
Overall PnL Breakdown: Majority of your trades have resulted in losses, with a monthly loss reported. This suggests that your current trading strategies may need tweaking.
Win Rate, Average Win, Average Loss: These are critical statistics that weren't provided. Having these numbers can significantly help in reviewing your trading performance.
Rule Violations and Distractions: You've admitted to breaking your rules and being distracted while trading. Remember, trading requires focus and adherence to your rules.
Moving forward, I encourage you to maintain your trading journal meticulously. It's an essential tool for accountability and learning. If you can provide more information, especially on your win rate, average win, and average loss, I'd be able to provide more targeted feedback.
Remember to focus on high expectancy, risk management, and rule adherence. Only after a thorough analysis, consider refining your trading rules. Keep up the hard work and continue to learn from your mistakes.
1. Stick To The Plan
I stuck to the plan, but I misread the market (nothing new here), and was consistently trading against the current. Whoops. While I do have a counter-trend setup, I was trading the with-trend setup, so my profit targets were waaaaaay larger than they should have been. It was a good lesson though, and there are going to be things that I learn along the way that I just didn't think about beforehand. I'm comfortable with that since it's all in SIM.
Edit: Forgot to mention that after I finally realized what the deal was as far as the market's direction goes, I avoided taking additional misinformed trades.
2. Don't Skip The Intermediate Timeframe
Ironically, I paid too much attention to the Intermediate timeframe today. I need to remember Primary>Intermediate>Minor.
Didn't trade today. Decided to read and do research. Started Darvas' first book, and it's great so far. I can definitely relate to the following quote:
"I always sold too quickly because I am a coward. Whenever I bought a stock at 25 and it rose to 30, I became so worried it might go back that I sold it. I knew the right thing to do but I invariably did the opposite." - Nicolas Darvas
Aaaaaand something to work towards:
"I knew that I had to adopt a cold, unemotional attitude toward stocks; that I must not fall in love with them when they rose and I must not get angry when they fell; that there are no such animals as good or bad stocks. There are only rising and falling stocks--and I should hold the rising ones and sell those that fall." - Nicolas Darvas
Daily Review of Weekly Goals:
I know I have a problem with trying to reinvent the wheel as far as trading concepts go (see PTU, PTR, etc.). Primary, Intermediate, and Minor come from Charles Dow I think, and using multiple timeframes isn't a new concept either. I'm just finding ways to define things that make the most sense to me. I don't want to take credit for anything that I didn't do. I was listening to a podcast with David Ryan, and he made the point that there's nothing new under the sun as far as trading goes. Makes sense to me! Methods are rediscovered and forgotten over time. I think anyway. I'm not an expert though.
1. Stick To The Plan
It took a minute to identify which setup to use this morning, but I started the day focusing on the Primary timeframe, so that's an improvement. I wasn't sure if I should use the PTU or the PTR but luckily, I figured it out. I stuck to the plan for the setup I was using, and I didn't exit the trade early. The pressure was there, but I focused on trying to center myself and emulate Darvas' cold unemotional state. Didn't quite get there, but it helped to have something to focus on.
I guess I should say that I didn't exit early out of fear. I did exit before I reached my profit target, but I exited in harmony with my plan. I have specific criteria that must be met in order to warrant an early exit, and they were met this morning.
2. Don't Skip The Intermediate Timeframe
There was a moment(s) where I didn't realize that I needed to switch back to the Intermediate timeframe and was focusing too intently on the Minor timeframe. I corrected the error when I noticed it though. Will do better on Monday!
1. Stick To The Plan
A rough start but got better toward the end. Writing out a step-by-step instruction set for what to do when "x" happens, with legitimate early exit criteria was helpful. It took some of the in-the-moment thinking away, which was also helpful. I don't currently have instructions for adjusting my Stop-Loss after I'm in a trade, so that's something I need to flesh out. I want the rules to be based on the price action, and not the PnL.
2. Don't Skip The Intermediate Timeframe
I struggled with this goal in ways that I didn't anticipate. I need to be able to focus on the timeframe at hand, and also be able to shift that focus to another timeframe as soon as it's necessary.
Cattywampus Ramblings
I'm not sure if I'll continue to post trades and PnLs like I did on Friday. On the one hand, it doesn't seem super smart to broadcast your earnings to the public. Granted, I'm thinking down the road here because the majority of the trades I took this last week didn't work out, so at this point, it'll probably be a mix of gains and losses. This forum also allows for anonymity, which is nice, but I would think that if someone were enterprising enough, they could probably bypass any built-in security protocols for the website, and gain access to that sweet, sweet private user data. I tend to veer towards paranoia sometimes, so that neurotic trait may just be acting up with my current line of thinking.
On the other hand, there seems to be a dearth of verifiably profitable traders in general, and it could help the trading community to have more (again, down the road). Some people make the argument that traders who claim to be profitable, but don't prove that they're profitable, aren't obligated to offer any proof in the first place. The traders in question are also usually selling something, whether a course, indicator, service, etc, which, I mean, is kind of suspicious. "I won't prove that I'm profitable. You just have to take my word for it. By the way, I sell 'x', and if you act now, you can save 30% on your order!" It reeks of grift.
Edit: Don't get me wrong, I don't care if traders don't prove that they're profitable as long as they're not selling something.
I'm not going to call you paranoid, and I'm also not going to say you shouldn't be paranoid if you want to ( ). Do whatever you like, basically.
Also, I can understand. I think it's not unusual for someone to not know what they want to reveal in public, and to feel a little (or a lot) uncertain about it all.
But one of the things that helped me to get over that was to realize that no one really gives a shit, basically, what I post about my trading on a given day, month or year. It was a relief to know that "they" are not watching me, and that in fact "they" have much more to do than to read what I post on an online forum.
I don't mean to be dismissive or to ridicule you in any way. Self-exposure, no matter how you see it, can be something that raises all sorts of concerns and second thoughts, so by all means only do what you are comfortable with. You are not wrong in wanting to safeguard your personal privacy and any details you want to keep private.
But if you read other journals (which I hope you do), you will see what everyone else discusses about their trading. That doesn't mean you should too, but if you read their journals, when they are specific about their gains and losses, not only can you better understand them, but actually, they can too. When people are specific, and when they are willing to be publicly accountable for what they have done, they can find it easier to improve, which is the point. If all someone is willing to do is write some general summaries about how they traded or what they need to do, the journaling process is likely to be less valuable to them.
Again, your call, not mine. Do it as you want it. But revealing and discussing detail is one of the things that many people have found helpful. It is also true that it is helpful to others, which is also a part of all this.
One simple thing to know is that no one gets to do that here. If someone wants to sell anything, we just ban them. We can figure them out pretty easily, too.
It makes us really unpopular with the scammers, too. Which is how we like it.
I hope you trade well, and that your journal experience is rewarding to you. Do it any way you want. It will be valuable if you do, to you and everyone else.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
That seems like a good way to look at it, and certainly less stressful. Thank you! I'll try to keep that in mind moving forward.
I think I will read some journals. I probably should have done that in the beginning to get a feel for how it's usually done, instead of just diving in lol. I do like the idea of public accountability! I suppose being more specific would be a way to work through fear as well, so that could be a valuable exercise.
I really, really, REALLY appreciate that this site has a low tolerance for that kind of behavior. Thanks for taking the time to respond so thoroughly! I feel kind of bad that my responses aren't longer, but I mean no disrespect, and I'm not taking your response for granted. I very much appreciate it!
