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Bulls, Bears, & Beyond


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Bulls, Bears, & Beyond

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  #1 (permalink)
Lordvladislav
Bern, Switzerland
 
Posts: 13 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 22



Tools & Trading

Platform to trade: TWS
Broker: IBKR
Financial Instrument: MES (for now)

Journal: Tradezella + Paper Notebook
Charting: TradingView



About me

Hello everyone!
I was inspired to do this by @GFIs1 and @HumbleTrader
My name is Vladislav and this is my trading journey & journal.
I am 28 years old, and I started to day trade in September 2022. I have a full-time job (that is not related to trading), and I can trade only after work. This is usually between 11AM (Chicago Timezone) to 2PM.
Since I started to trade I tracked from day one all my expenses (using Google Sheets) plus time (using Forest app).
To this day 16.10.2023, I spent 7648$ in trading softwares, courses, journals, challenges etc. and 748 hours learning/studying charts, practicing, and perfecting my craft. (I know itís not a lot of time but Iíve done this while having a full time job)

In the first 3 months I started with crypto (thatís how I discovered the market in the first place)
After that, I went to futures and thank god I only traded in a simulator environment. After another 3 months, I decided to buy my first challenge. For me, it was the best decision because I could have the real emotions + practice in a relatively safe environment.
I Failed multiple times and learned a lot.
In August 2023 I passed my first challenge and became a Funded Trader. 

While I was testing/trading with the trading firm I also started to slowly fund/build my own account since March 2023. (building a track record of consistency and good risk management) 

At the moment I am a break-even trader. (3% YTD profit).
My main goal is obviously to turn the corner and become a profitable trader.
My second goal, I would like to personally meet (offline) and get to know other traders like me. (atm I dont know anyone)

I risk a max 3% of my total capital per day. Usually its max 2%. (planning to lower the percentage to 1.5% )

The only indicator that I use is VWAP & 9EMA . I rely mostly on price action.

My timeframe is daily for bias, hourly for signals, 1 and 5 min for entry.

See you soon with the first post.

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  #2 (permalink)
Lordvladislav
Bern, Switzerland
 
Posts: 13 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 22




What a move.

Decided to trade MNQ instead of MES because of the violent movements.
Took 2 contracts short, after FOMC minutes were finished.
I saw the weakness at 15.100, price tried 4 times during the day to conquer this level.
Level of confidence was pretty high.

Still in the position, might leave it till tomorrow before open...

Will post a screenshot from the broker with the execution later.

EDIT: Entry is short -2, 15.088

EDIT 2: Closed the trade. expecting a bounce tomorrow
proof



see u next time

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  #3 (permalink)
Lordvladislav
Bern, Switzerland
 
Posts: 13 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 22


Again MNQ.

Bias is neutral, slightly towards weak bullish. I find it hard to sustain this move to the downside 4 days in a row. But it can happen That's why I am very careful with my position.

Took only one contract MNQ (might add another one if the action looks good). I am willing to give a maximum of 100 points for one contract, and 50 for 2. (of course It doesn't have to hit my stop loss)

The entry is really bad. Need to be careful. Don't want to give the gains back from tomorrow.





Will edit this post with execution once I close it.


EDIT: Ok, I was wrong, at least with timing, will see how the day closes, but trading for today has ended for me. It's almost scary how long the bears are able to sustain this move and how fast.
Lost 93 points on one contract today.




Edit 2: A higher probability long trade is to wait till 4260 / 4230 on ES for a bounce / reversal. (if the trend resists, if not short the break). Unfortunately, I jumped in the market too fast. Will check the market again at the end of the day, just to see if I was right or wrong.

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  #4 (permalink)
Lordvladislav
Bern, Switzerland
 
Posts: 13 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 22

It's Saturday night here. I was reading a book called "Option Volatility and Pricing" by Sheldom Natenber. I never traded options, but learning about it and developing your education by studying different financial instruments is interesting.
Anyway, I liked a passage so much that I would like to share it here, maybe it's valuable for someone here.
Here it goes:


"Future volatility is an unknown, so a trader will look at historical and if available forecast volatility to help in making an intelligent guess about the future. In the final analysis, though it is the future realized volatility that determines an options value.

A commonly used analogy to help new traders better understand the role of volatility is to think of volatility as being similar to the weather. Suppose that a trader living in Chicago gets up on a July morning and must decide what clothes to wear that day. Will he consider putting on a heavy winter coat? This is probably not a logical choice because he knows that historically it is not sufficiently cold in Chicago in July to warrant wearing a winter coat.

Next he might turn on the radio or television to listen to the weather forecast. The forecaster is predicting clear skies with very warm temperatures close to 90 Fahrenheit (32 Celsius). Based on this information the trader has decided that he will wear a short sleeve shirt and does not need a sweater or a jacket. And he certainly won't need an umbrella. However just to be sure he decides do look out the window to see what the people passing in the street are wearing. To his surprise, everyone is wearing a coat and carrying a umbrella. Through their choice of clothing, the people outside are implying different weather than the forecast.

Given the conflicting information what clothes should the trader wear?
He must make some decisions. But whom he should believe, the weather forecaster? or the people in the street ? There can be no certain answer because the trader would not know the future weather until the end of the day. Much will depend on the traders knowledge of local conditions. Perhaps the trader lives in an area far removed from where the weather forecaster is located. Then he must give added weight to local conditions. The decision on what clothes to wear, like every trading decision depends on a great many factors. Not only must the decision must be made on the basis of the best available information but the decision must also be made with consideration for the possibility of error.

What are the benefits of being right? What are the consequences of being wrong? If a trader fails to take an umbrella and it rains this might be of little consequence, if the bus picks him up right outside his residence and drops him off right outside of his place of work.
On the other hand, if he must walk several blocks in the rain he might become sick and have to miss several days of work. The choices are never easy and one can only hope to make the decision that will turn out best in the long run. "

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  #5 (permalink)
Lordvladislav
Bern, Switzerland
 
Posts: 13 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 22

Expected a bounce since Friday- didn't happened.
Monday, weird action, broke the low 4th October, then it bounced.
Today level of confidence was high for a bounce, but not high enough to trade with big volume.
Took just one contract MNQ, I was expecting a bigger bounce, sadly it didn't happen, closed the trade breakeven
Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Entry: 14750
Exit: 14753

Market very weak/bearish.
3 months in a row, yikes

Execution:
Screenshot 2023-10-24 at 18.39.02

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  #6 (permalink)
Lordvladislav
Bern, Switzerland
 
Posts: 13 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 22

November is here
Hope you guys are ready after the 4% rally in the last 5 days

Check this interesting statistic I found


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Last Updated on November 6, 2023


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