2024 Dragon

April 15th, 2024, 02:36 PM

bit of noise, carries still solid and energy positioning either way

yields are still dampened and vix running at highs

extra dipping action could provide opps

//

near the lows, would have to see energy confirm

the vol range widened and the open generated caution

bonds still take inflation as priority over risk-off status

//

gold and crypto are also pending

April 16th, 2024, 12:46 PM

things settling for the dip, dow was dogged prior but now leading

vol gold crude bonds carries all waiting but poised

pending but turnaround tues in fx

April 17th, 2024, 01:31 PM

vol and carry is early on the turn while energy drips

we see that indexes are bouncing after some initial hesitation

will be interesting what unfolds for the next few days - weeks through earnings

//

would say hidden strength behind pre-earnings jitters and risk-off sentiment

rounding patterns would be useful for accumulation and mid-term positioning

overall still supportive and there is also some relief in yields and metals

April 18th, 2024, 11:04 AM

so yday we had the initiation from carry aud/jpy and vix

this spilled over into the nikkei which pulled in us indexes

we also verify through dark index and gamma this is the case

//

for nflx we see strength through the dip, pending earnings tonight

overall though some reactions like asml and tsm were sold after

the mid-term is still okay and we take this vix high period to position

//

guidance is the key for a lot of these beats for the quarter

seems like the sentiment is now catching up

maybe prepping for a lower bar next Q

//

or the threat or possibility of holding back

due to withdrawl of looser conditions

earnings ok but guidance a begging tool

April 19th, 2024, 11:26 AM

still solid with the carry and flattened response from yields and vol

one interesting bit is that dow is leading for once vs mag7 / large cap tech

so an allocation there might balance out exposure in other crowded sectors

//

not to say that this is an opp for those with enough risk appetite to accumulate

the most dippy seems to be crypto taking time to really round out the bottom

there are pockets of strength but need to really pick them out (wfc, gs, ms)

//

yes, they are big bank brothers in the context of a high yield enviro..

another part is that the breadth is actually rising so there is a rotation

from tech like / semi / rate sensitive to rate insensitive instruments

April 22nd, 2024, 02:41 PM

though yields may have a another leg up pending may fomc

indexes and vol are progressing after the extended rout

stalling the bottom through earnings or frontrun

April 23rd, 2024, 12:55 PM

the narrative post-covid remains, the start of the decade showed up with a stick save at support

the after effect of preventative easing haunts us but also provides adequate tailwinds

although yields are higher, overshooting and a slow repair is better

//

that said recently during the transition from 2024 Q1-2 and expiries

there have been some sell signals preventing accumulation

this has been the case since mid-march holding only

//

mid term ramp start of late 2023 needs a breather

at least in the mag7 heavily influenced components

breadth is there and the diamond is in the rough

April 24th, 2024, 11:56 AM

sell in may and go away is likely in effect.. trendless

for the short term maybe small swings

not seeing follow through

//

earnings, fomc, etc.

April 25th, 2024, 10:20 AM

looking at indexes, there was an issue where mid-timeframe carried

vol also seemed to suggest this and yields were pressed as well

which suggests that '23 Q4 - '24 Q1 was less convincing

//

there are more solid developments getting dragged

something like bonds are just waiting for the OK

decliners are paving the way with breadth

April 26th, 2024, 03:41 PM

the bump should have been higher honestly

mag 7 is boiling with the lid on but can't break out

staying on with the diamonds and dollar is still pushing

(still collecting alpha from alphabet via dia)

2024 Dragon

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2024 Dragon