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Trading Oil - "Velocity" system


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Trading Oil - "Velocity" system

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  #11 (permalink)
 
Okina's Avatar
 Okina 
montreal quebec/canada
 
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Nice first trade this morning: +43 ticks

Maybe I wont take any other since I have a lot of admin task that are late.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #12 (permalink)
 
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 xplorer 
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Okina View Post
Nice first trade this morning: +43 ticks

Maybe I wont take any other since I have a lot of admin task that are late.

Are these live trades?

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  #13 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
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I don't like the market now. It is battling with a 30+ ticks range. I have nice signals on the RB but they are completely out of phase with the CVB. It means that when I have price action I don't see the corresponding order flow and when I have a nice order flow I don't see the corresponding price action = warning

Will be out until we are out of this "mean reverting" phase. Usually with this this kind of market conditions what I do is: 1) wait until the range become smaller and smaller (down to 10 ticks max) 2) wait until we are significantly higher or lower in a previously explored price territory.

It means that I will let go and I will miss certainly 1 or 2 nice potential trades.

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  #14 (permalink)
 
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 LukeGeniol 
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Hi @Okina,
from the first post it's not clear what you calculate in your indicators, velocity? accelleration? momentum (as in trading, or in mechanics (here there's no m (mass)))?

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
Luke.
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 Okina 
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LukeGeniol View Post
Hi @Okina,
from the first post it's not clear what you calculate in your indicators, velocity? accelleration? momentum (as in trading, or in mechanics (here there's no m (mass)))?

It is an analogy that I have used and as any analogy it could be misleading...

The correct one could be:

if you see price going up let say 10 ticks in 5s how do you compare this event if previously you have seen price going up 10 ticks but in 20s ?
if you see 100 new order entering the market in 5s how do compare this event if previously you have seen 100 new orders but in 50s ?

This is the very basic idea behind my system. In the real word it is more complex than that but the idea is that simple. This is why I choose the analogy with velocity, I measure a direction and a speed and see how they evolved in real time and I do that on both price and order flow.

Hope it helps.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #16 (permalink)
 
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 stifland 
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No one asked, but would you be willing to share your indicators and templates? looks interesting, thanks.

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  #17 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
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stifland View Post
No one asked, but would you be willing to share your indicators and templates? looks interesting, thanks.

It is not one 'magical' indicator, it is a set of specific conditions and I'm not even sure that I have all of them. It just works for me and it maybe won't work for anyone else.

My advice is the following:

Step 1:
take RB charts (lot of them) and study them. Find a price pattern that occurs with a good confidence level when the market go lower or higher. If you find one in which your are comfortable you will have your first indicator. The one I call the 'permission to go long' or 'permission to go short'

Step 2:
take RB charts (lot of them) and study them with your new 'permission' indicator. Find and analyse under which conditions your 'permission' indicator seems to give you good and bad signals. Now you will have a second indicator if you find some in which you are comfortable.

Step 3:
repeat step 1 and 2 with CVB. Now you will have the same thing for order flow.

Step 4:
take RB and CBV charts (lot of them) and study them and repeat step 1,2 and 3. And now you may find a system to trade this instrument that will fit your trading style. Or maybe you won't find something because this system is not for you.

Step 5:
repeat step 1 to 5 in order to find what are the conditions that give you early warning that you are wrong. And now you will have you're exit strategy.

Step 6:
now take time to watch that in real time - take some paper trade (not to much it is not worth it) - take some real one if you feel it.

Good trading.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #18 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
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No other trade today. I did not like the market conditions just after my first trade and more importantly I had to catch up with a dangerous pile of papers on my desk. I really missed some good opportunities.

I will spend a couple hours analyzing my system as I do every day even if I do not trade.

For several time I have noticed that we have interesting moves (trends) at the open of market in Europe. I've never played those for real (for the good reason that I sleep at that time). But the more I study them the more I like them.

I've just finished my day analysis:
1-My system did not catch any of the up moves of the day.
2-Most of the down move could had been profitable (but lot of them marginally - between 8 to 15 ticks).

It is often the case. The move below is a perfect example, we have a 40+ up move with not a single valid long signal.


R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #19 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
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small scalp +5 ticks

late entry, signal was weak but it was worth a try. At the break of 29.94 we add some stop and we reach .97 but the move was finish after a re test of .97 level.


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  #20 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
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Nice traps - almost fall into them...


R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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Last Updated on April 1, 2016


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