NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Seasonal Trades


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 102 posts (132 thanks)
    2. looks_two ron99 with 26 posts (75 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 21 posts (40 thanks)
    4. looks_4 mosalem2003 with 19 posts (9 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one ron99 with 2.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 1.9 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 myrrdin with 1.3 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 mosalem2003 with 0.5 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 59,101 views
    2. thumb_up 334 thanks given
    3. group 71 followers
    1. forum 280 posts
    2. attach_file 37 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Seasonal Trades

  #131 (permalink)
heraclitus
Tokyo, Japan
 
Posts: 11 since Jan 2018
Thanks Given: 7
Thanks Received: 0


myrrdin View Post
MRCI uses full sized contracts. To have enough margin in the account even after a drawdown, I would assume that you need an account of approx. $200,000.

From 2009 until end of 2016 - this is the time frame you are looking at - they made a profit of approx. $160,000, not including slippage and fees. This is a profit of 10 % per year.

I am sure you can do better than this, by selecting the trades more carefully. You find my way to do this in the thread.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Will do! Many thanks.

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
How to apply profiles
Traders Hideout
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
Trade idea based off three indicators.
Traders Hideout
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
29 thanks
Just another trading journal: PA, Wyckoff & Trends
25 thanks
Tao te Trade: way of the WLD
24 thanks
Bigger Wins or Fewer Losses?
23 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
18 thanks
  #132 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206

Interesting @heraclitus thanks for the explanation. Regarding...

Quoting 
So basically if I want to trade this, I'm betting on seasonal trends not suddenly reversing across the board. That's not a hugely risky thing to do, or is it? I mean, OK, it happened with copper, but surely it's not going to happen with eight different commodities, all in the same year. That would be impressively bad luck. Agree?

it would all depend upon correlation. Crude, Heating Oil and Gasoline are all highly correlated, so if one broke a trend then yes all 3 could. I assume there's similar correlations within the Ags and Metals (I think Gold & Silver correlate) but maybe to a lesser degree. And then everything correlates to the USD at times - but not all of the time.

Good luck in your ventures.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #133 (permalink)
heraclitus
Tokyo, Japan
 
Posts: 11 since Jan 2018
Thanks Given: 7
Thanks Received: 0



SMCJB View Post
Interesting @heraclitus thanks for the explanation. Regarding...

it would all depend upon correlation. Crude, Heating Oil and Gasoline are all highly correlated, so if one broke a trend then yes all 3 could. I assume there's similar correlations within the Ags and Metals (I think Gold & Silver correlate) but maybe to a lesser degree. And then everything correlates to the USD at times - but not all of the time.

Good luck in your ventures.

Ah yes. See this is the sort of comment I was hoping for. I was first set on soybeans for April but then changed it to oil for the higher returns. But you have a good point there about correlation. I'm going back to soybeans for that month. Metals are also correlated, as you say. Silver - platinum at almost 70%. Hummm... Platinum - palladium is lower at about 50%. That's alright, I guess.

Thank you!!

Reply With Quote
  #134 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206

Better System Trader 137 – Profiting from persistent market anomalies with Dimitri Speck

137 - Profiting from persistent market anomalies with Dimitri Speck - Better System Trader
Saisonalität :: SeasonalCharts.de
https://www.seasonax.com/

Reply With Quote
  #135 (permalink)
 lolli7889 
Ancona
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Trading: es, cl, nq, 6e
Posts: 39 since Jul 2017
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 41

hello everyone,
I am new here and I'd like to partecipate since I am also trading seasonals through both futures spreads and futures options.
I'll try to post my trades and thoughts, every feedback is very welcome.
I am entering today a CL bear spread, short CLZ8 long CLM9 at around the open ( actual price should be about 2.20, with a stop loss on close above 3.50 (1300$ x contract). according to seasonalgo, this spread should move lower until end of august, and has already started its downward move.
fondamentals in crude (COT commercials short at record high levels and increase in supply) should favor this spread.
initial target at 0.0
Lorenzo

Reply With Quote
  #136 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


lolli7889 View Post
hello everyone,
I am new here and I'd like to partecipate since I am also trading seasonals through both futures spreads and futures options.
I'll try to post my trades and thoughts, every feedback is very welcome.
I am entering today a CL bear spread, short CLZ8 long CLM9 at around the open ( actual price should be about 2.20, with a stop loss on close above 3.50 (1300$ x contract). according to seasonalgo, this spread should move lower until end of august, and has already started its downward move.
fondamentals in crude (COT commercials short at record high levels and increase in supply) should favor this spread.
initial target at 0.0
Lorenzo

Hi Lorenzo,

as mentioned in the short option thread, I am also short the CL using a Long CLZ P70 option.

I do not have any information about your portfolio, but make sure to avoid clump risk. 2 of your 3 positions are short CL positions. To me it is very important to have a well balanced portfolio.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #137 (permalink)
zxcv64
London, UK
 
Posts: 74 since Jan 2018
Thanks Given: 162
Thanks Received: 68

Lorenzo,


Quoting 
"I am entering today a CL bear spread, short CLZ8 long CLM9 at around the open ( actual price should be about 2.20, with a stop loss on close above 3.50 (1300$ x contract). according to seasonalgo, this spread should move lower until end of august, and has already started its downward move."

,

Maybe I am missing something, but this spread is a negative number. Currently CML9-CLZ8 is around -1.6, and when you entered on 01-Jun it would have been roughly -2.0. I assume you mean a stop loss around -3.50. And according to seasonalgo, the spread is moving upwards over time.

Have I completely mis-understood your trade?

Edit: If you actually meant CLZ8-CML9, then it all makes more sense.

Reply With Quote
  #138 (permalink)
 lolli7889 
Ancona
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Trading: es, cl, nq, 6e
Posts: 39 since Jul 2017
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 41


zxcv64 View Post
Lorenzo,

,

Maybe I am missing something, but this spread is a negative number. Currently CML9-CLZ8 is around -1.6, and when you entered on 01-Jun it would have been roughly -2.0. I assume you mean a stop loss around -3.50. And according to seasonalgo, the spread is moving upwards over time.

Have I completely mis-understood your trade?

Edit: If you actually meant CLZ8-CML9, then it all makes more sense.

you got it correct, i was meaning CLZ 8- CLM9, selling december and buying june. it is exactly the same as you said but with positive number

Reply With Quote
  #139 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206

Different markets quote spreads in different ways. Energy markets are all chronological, so it's always first month - second month.

Reply With Quote
  #140 (permalink)
 
CobblersAwls's Avatar
 CobblersAwls 
London, United Kingdom
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Broker: Bloomberg
Trading: Energies
Posts: 310 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 1,089
Thanks Received: 386


@zxcv64 the logic can be quite confusing, because as you thought, if you were selling the spread, you would think that the math would be -Z8 +M9 which as you pointed out would give you a negative number. But it works a little differently, because as @SMCJB pointed out, the construct is always Closest Month - Furthest Month.

If CL Z8/M9 was @ 2.20 and you predicted the spread would flatten (as Lorenzo did) and go towards 0.00, then you would sell Z8 and buy M9 so that the prices converge.

If Z8 is 65.20 and M9 is 63.00, spread = 2.20
If Z8 falls to 64.50 and M9 rises to 63.50, spread = 1.00

Hope this helps, I made the same mistake when learning about spreads.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on May 4, 2021


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts