NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Seasonal Trades


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 102 posts (132 thanks)
    2. looks_two ron99 with 26 posts (75 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 21 posts (40 thanks)
    4. looks_4 mosalem2003 with 19 posts (9 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one ron99 with 2.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 1.9 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 myrrdin with 1.3 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Kruger with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 59,438 views
    2. thumb_up 334 thanks given
    3. group 71 followers
    1. forum 280 posts
    2. attach_file 37 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Seasonal Trades

  #151 (permalink)
zxcv64
London, UK
 
Posts: 74 since Jan 2018
Thanks Given: 162
Thanks Received: 68

Last week, I opened ZMN19-ZON19 for 175. Previous history shows 8/10 years have been profitable. Will aim to close on 01-May or earlier if profit targets are met.

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Trade idea based off three indicators.
Traders Hideout
Quant vue
Trading Reviews and Vendors
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
 
  #152 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


zxcv64 View Post
Last week, I opened ZMN19-ZON19 for 175. Previous history shows 8/10 years have been profitable. Will aim to close on 01-May or earlier if profit targets are met.

I never traded Soymeal vs. Oats.

Some remarks:
There are plenty of soybeans around this year. In case the China deal is moved further down the road, prices of soymeal might move south.
Some planting area might move from corn to beans which also is bearish for the soy complex.
There is an important USDA report this Friday. The March report is known for the potential of big moves.
The size of the contracts is different. I suggest to check if 1:1 is appropriate.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #153 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


Another interesting Seasonal Trade that I found in the reports of MRCI:

Buy OJH - OJK, and hold the spread from early January until late February.

The trade was profitable in the most recent 14 years. The average profit was significantly larger than the maximum loss.

The spread has followed its seasonal chart quite nicely in reent months. It has come down to the lowest value for this time of the year since the early seventies (I do not have older data.)

COT data is bullish.

The profit potential is relatively small. Thus, check your fees per future traded.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #154 (permalink)
 
Thierryq's Avatar
 Thierryq 
Recife + Brazil
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Broker: Denali
Trading: ES, spreads
Posts: 36 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 133
Thanks Received: 49

Iím getting some nice traders following MRCI. The interesting part of it is thatís a way to get to understand the commodities market dynamics.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Reply With Quote
  #155 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


Thierryq View Post
Iím getting some nice traders following MRCI. The interesting part of it is thatís a way to get to understand the commodities market dynamics.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

The important thing about trading with MRCI is to check each trade for yourself. Just following every trade they suggest will give you many loosing trades.

In this thread you will find some criteria how to check their suggestions. In case of further questions, please do not hesitate to ask.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #156 (permalink)
 
Thierryq's Avatar
 Thierryq 
Recife + Brazil
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Broker: Denali
Trading: ES, spreads
Posts: 36 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 133
Thanks Received: 49

Indeed thatís what I do. Since I donít have ICE Iím trading CME only. Then among those futures, I study beforehand the probabilities of drawdown, risk and reward and how the spread has been trading.

The non-spread trades (only one contract) I chose a few and usually place a trade with futures options vertical spread.

Regards,

Thierry

Reply With Quote
  #157 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


Thierryq View Post
Indeed thatís what I do. Since I donít have ICE Iím trading CME only. Then among those futures, I study beforehand the probabilities of drawdown, risk and reward and how the spread has been trading.

The non-spread trades (only one contract) I chose a few and usually place a trade with futures options vertical spread.

Regards,

Thierry

Check the items I mentioned in the example.

Did the chart follow the seasonal chart in recent months ? If not, forget the seasonal trade.
Does the COT data cooperate ? If not, forget the seasonal trade.
Has the future already run very far ? is it near its all time highs ? Forget ...
Does the seasonal trade work in most of the years ? Perfect.
Are the maximum losses in recent years smaller than thte average profit ? Good trade ...

You will take only a small part of the suggestions of MRCI, but they will work at a high percentage.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #158 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
Posts: 126 since Mar 2019
Thanks Given: 42
Thanks Received: 96

How often does it happen approximately to you (10-20%? ) that one leg of a seasonal trade can be dropped to have a better profit from the other leg from a pure futures perspectives? Just curious.
Another question related to that. Sometimes some brokers are proposing directly a combined trade (one example at Saxo CL0-Q0 (in one go buy CL April contract and sell CL August contract): is it possible to close at one point of time one leg and keep running the second leg?
Obviously at the end of the contract for the first leg, the other leg will remain opened but my question is for a voluntary closure.
I know one wouldn't know the answer for my broker but what is the answer for your broker if it is possible?
Thanks

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #159 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


Sagal View Post
How often does it happen approximately to you (10-20%? ) that one leg of a seasonal trade can be dropped to have a better profit from the other leg from a pure futures perspectives? Just curious.
Another question related to that. Sometimes some brokers are proposing directly a combined trade (one example at Saxo CL0-Q0 (in one go buy CL April contract and sell CL August contract): is it possible to close at one point of time one leg and keep running the second leg?
Obviously at the end of the contract for the first leg, the other leg will remain opened but my question is for a voluntary closure.
I know one wouldn't know the answer for my broker but what is the answer for your broker if it is possible?
Thanks

I usually liquidate both legs of a future spread simultaniously. I do not remember any recent trade where I dropped only one leg.

My brokers allow for dropping only one leg. But the margin would rise significantly. More important, risk would rise significantly.

In case I find out that an outright position is better suited than the spread position I am holding, I would close the spread position, and consider the new outright position as a new trade (regarding size of the position, risk, target etc.)

I hope this answers your question.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #160 (permalink)
 
Thierryq's Avatar
 Thierryq 
Recife + Brazil
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Broker: Denali
Trading: ES, spreads
Posts: 36 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 133
Thanks Received: 49



Sagal View Post
How often does it happen approximately to you (10-20%? ) that one leg of a seasonal trade can be dropped to have a better profit from the other leg from a pure futures perspectives? Just curious.

Another question related to that. Sometimes some brokers are proposing directly a combined trade (one example at Saxo CL0-Q0 (in one go buy CL April contract and sell CL August contract): is it possible to close at one point of time one leg and keep running the second leg?

Obviously at the end of the contract for the first leg, the other leg will remain opened but my question is for a voluntary closure.

I know one wouldn't know the answer for my broker but what is the answer for your broker if it is possible?

Thanks



For me, the trade is a spread from beginning to end. I analyze it as a spread (the seasonal chart and behavior) so it doesnít matter if one of the contracts moves up or down because the difference between them is what I'm watching.

Entering the trade as a spread contract gives you the advantage of a much reduced margin. (if your broker offers it)

In my case, NGH0-NGF0 spread has around $500.00 margin compared to $2500.00 for each natural gas contract if entered individually.

Regards,

Thierry




Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on May 4, 2021


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts