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Seasonal Trades


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Seasonal Trades

  #41 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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ron99 View Post
Sold the RBj7z7 today for 0.2324. Will reverse to being long on Friday Feb 3rd.

Placed an order to buy the RBN-RBZ just above the January low.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #42 (permalink)
 
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 dbarno 
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Stopped out in position trade in Pl with profit. This time......

Another way to trade is what I call double dipping. Have one account for positon trading and another for day trading. It's not unusual for me to be long and short at the same time in two accounts in same market. Will do this until markets gets slow or find another set up. Never leave a market that is making money for another one.

On radar coming up. Long CL and short ES.

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  #43 (permalink)
thehook1
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Hi Ron99, where did you get the information about stocks and demand levels?
ron99 View Post
I'm looking at doing the RBj-RBz spread starting Feb 4th to Feb 25th. It worked 10 of last 10 years. Has consistent best start and exit dates. Averages +$1,988 per year.



Seasonally gasoline stocks decline in Feb and March as refiners start switching from winter grade to summer grade.



Problem is fundamentals. Stocks are high



Demand is lower



Not sure if fundamentals are bearish enough to triumph seasonals and lower inventories. DCOT shows specs extremely long RB.




There is also a dip in this spread from 1/30 to 2/4. Worked 9 of last 10 years.



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  #44 (permalink)
 ron99 
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thehook1 View Post
Hi Ron99, where did you get the information about stocks and demand levels?

From my own online charts using EIA data. Go here https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870 then click on "Energies-Weekly Data & Weekly Change".

There are other sets of charts that might interest you like DCOT or Energies Monthly Data or the ones that are titled Seasonal Futures are charts of daily futures contract price settlements over the last 10 years.

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  #45 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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dbarno View Post
It's not unusual for me to be long and short at the same time in two accounts in same market.


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  #46 (permalink)
 
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 dbarno 
Madison, Wi
 
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Example. Went long in Platinum with position account. While long in position account will use day trade account in platinum if worth it. My bias is towards longs in day trading it. Will take a short as a scalp. Only did it 3 times. Two of them worked.

Platinum was a sweetheart of a market this month.....

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  #47 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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"long and short at the same time in two accounts in same market" = No Position
and unless they are sub-accounts...
"long and short at the same time in two accounts in same market" = Lots of Margin Requirements/Inefficient Capital Management

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  #48 (permalink)
 ron99 
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ron99 View Post
Sold the RBj7z7 today for 0.2324. Will reverse to being long on Friday Feb 3rd.

Bought this position back today at 0.2335. Loss of $46.20. I should have exited on Friday.

Bought one of these spreads at 0.2335 to hold until Feb 24th.

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  #49 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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myrrdin View Post
Placed an order to buy the RBN-RBZ just above the January low.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Bought half a lot of the RBN-RBZ today, and will leave the order to buy the second half just above the January low. According to MRCI this spread should work until 11th of March.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #50 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Bought the RBK-HOK, which is a seasonal trade according to MRCI after February 23rd.

The spread shows an upwards trend since August 2016, and recently showed a set-back. Looks to me to be a good entry.

Only two max. drawdowns above the average profit in 15 years (2008, 2011), only one loss in 15 years (2008). Average Profit of the winners above $2,600 per spread.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Last Updated on May 4, 2021


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