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Seasonal Trades


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Seasonal Trades

  #81 (permalink)
 
Kruger's Avatar
 Kruger 
Cape Town South Africa
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Rithmic
Broker: Optimus
Trading: Commodities:Grains, Meats, Energy
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I decided to enter the CLJ-CLF spread. A little risky but it seems to be close to support level.

Average profit for last 15 years is $1722 and margin is a low $300.

This spread has had 1 loss in the last 15 years (in 2011) of $530, but drawdown was $1150

Let's see how this goes!

Regards

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  #82 (permalink)
maxinger
singapore
 
Posts: 15 since Sep 2017
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Kruger View Post
I decided to enter the CLJ-CLF spread. A little risky but it seems to be close to support level.

Average profit for last 15 years is $1722 and margin is a low $300.

This spread has had 1 loss in the last 15 years (in 2011) of $530, but drawdown was $1150

Let's see how this goes!

Regards

I guess you traded (CL J18 - CLF18).
Did you long or short it?

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  #83 (permalink)
 
Kruger's Avatar
 Kruger 
Cape Town South Africa
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Rithmic
Broker: Optimus
Trading: Commodities:Grains, Meats, Energy
Posts: 52 since Jun 2015
Thanks Given: 307
Thanks Received: 27



maxinger View Post
I guess you traded (CL J18 - CLF18).
Did you long or short it?

I bought CLJ18 and sold CLF18

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  #84 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
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Kruger View Post
I bought CLJ18 and sold CLF18

In my opinion the main risk for this trade is La Nina. The probability is currently estimated at 60 %. In this case the seasonals for CL show upwards towards the end of the year.

For this reason I currently do not trade CL from the short side.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #85 (permalink)
StopHunter
New York, New York
 
Posts: 14 since Nov 2015
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You guys are rockstars. I hope to learn more about spreads and seasonality from you.

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  #86 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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StopHunter View Post
You guys are rockstars. I hope to learn more about spreads and seasonality from you.

You are welome. Please feel free to ask your questions here. Good questions are important contributions to this forum and keep it alive.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #87 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
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Anyone trading seasonals can comment on season algo for trade recommendations and accuracy (I know it's a good for analysis but just starting and would like to get a feel for accuracy) thanks


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  #88 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: ES, CL, GC, ZB, YM, NQ
Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
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Awesome thread here. @myrrdin it seems that your criteria to take a seasonal trade are:

1. It has followed the seasonal trend throughout the year
2. It has a max drawdown in the last 15 years that rarely or never hits the average profit of the same period
3. Fundamentals are consistent with years past

Correct me if i'm wrong here.

Thanks,

Brett

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  #89 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Dabears2322 View Post
Awesome thread here. @myrrdin it seems that your criteria to take a seasonal trade are:

1. It has followed the seasonal trend throughout the year
2. It has a max drawdown in the last 15 years that rarely or never hits the average profit of the same period
3. Fundamentals are consistent with years past

Correct me if i'm wrong here.

Thanks,

Brett

Correct. In my opinion, the first one is the most important one. Usually, if the first criteria is fulfilled, the third one is fulfilled, too.

If the second one is not fulfilled, you should look for the reason. Eg. during the economic crisis 2008/2009 some commodities showed severe drawdowns. But this was not a typical year. Another example: Meat markets show untypical behaviour in years that were influenced by major deseases.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #90 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: ES, CL, GC, ZB, YM, NQ
Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
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myrrdin View Post
Correct. In my opinion, the first one is the most important one. Usually, if the first criteria is fulfilled, the third one is fulfilled, too.

If the second one is not fulfilled, you should look for the reason. Eg. during the economic crisis 2008/2009 some commodities showed severe drawdowns. But this was not a typical year. Another example: Meat markets show untypical behaviour in years that were influenced by major deseases.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Makes sense. Thanks!

Brett

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