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Metals

  #121 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
Posts: 126 since Mar 2019
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32 days left for the ingoldwetrust 2021 report
At least we have the 2021 Silver report
https://www.silverinstitute.org:443/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/World-Silver-Survey-2021.pdf

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  #122 (permalink)
 Tirutrade   is a Vendor
 
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SMCJB View Post
I believe this is a headwind that Gold has been fighting this year. Flows out of Gold ETFs.

Here a detailed view:
Transparent Precious Metal Holdings - Gold/Silver - GCRU Gold News

Regarding demand in the PMs, we came to the conclusion there are different main areas of interest:
1. ETF flows
2. Physical demand, India, China, Central banks
3. Futures

Basically the aggregate of the above defines the market. Sometimes one area shows high demand, then the other.

Right now investment demand in western world = ETF seems to be low, however China and India imports are very high.

The situation overall looks very bullish now.
EUR shows very bullish behavior
Commercials in GC and EUR bullish like the haven't been in 1.5 years.

This suggest the bottom is in a we will see further strength in the precious metal market.

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  #123 (permalink)
 Tirutrade   is a Vendor
 
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Very useful free information can be found here:
GCRU Gold News

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  #124 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
Posts: 126 since Mar 2019
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In addition concerning the outflows from ETFs from Nov 20 to March 21 eventually as well in April (to be confirmed) except Jan:
'Kitco quotes Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research at the WGC, stating that, while momentum in the gold market has definitely slowed compared to last year, strategist investors continue to see long-term value in the yellow metal and are providing critical support. Artigas also noted that investors also need to view the outflows in a broader context as last year saw historic ETF demand. “It is natural for the gold market to see some outflows as investors continue to take profits from last year’s record rally,” he said. “This is a natural rebalancing of the gold market.”

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  #125 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
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So ETF gold outflow in April is confirmed
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/global-gold-backed-etf-holdings-and-flows
but...see below and in addition from a TA perspective gold is breaking out (yesterday data not even taking account today's move), bitcoin and other cryptoassets are behaving well, so I'm quite confident...same for Silver and Platinum and Copper....

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  #126 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
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Ingoldwetrust report 2021 extended and short version
https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en

For the rest Platinum is disappointing recently and gold and silver are on a rolling coast basis but still trending favorably. I know why I focus all my attention on these PM this year...

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  #127 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
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1- By the way did you all hear about Basel III (with Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) requirement that will make holding unallocated gold problematic and would be bullish for allocated gold) coming into force for European banks on 28 June 2021 and at the end of the year for the other banks (unless there is a last-minutes postponement)?
According to the Basel III framework, gold will become a zero-risk asset.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/end-paper-gold-silver-markets

2-
Quoting 
"May highlights
Global gold ETFs added 61.3t tonnes (t) (US$3.4bn, 1.7% AUM) in May, reversing three straight months of net outflows. We believe this to be largely a function of investment demand increasing with the price strength of gold, along with renewed inflation concerns in the market, a weaker dollar and lower real yields. Global assets under management (AUM) stand at 3,628t (US$222bn). 1 AUM is now only 9% shy of the August 2020 high of US$240bn and 7% shy of the October 2020 tonnage high of 3,908bn."


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  #128 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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I know the CME Aluminum contract doesn't trade (yes there is a CME Aluminum contract and it traded 39 lots yesterday and has an open interest of 177 lots!) but none the less I found this Reuters story regarding the shift in Aluminum fundamentals as China becomes an net importer rather than exporter to be interesting.

Reuters :- World's largest aluminium producer still short of metal: Andy Home
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/worlds-largest-aluminium-producer-still-short-metal-andy-home-2021-06-08/

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  #129 (permalink)
Sagal
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Concerning NSFR there is a good explanation p76 - 78 of the extended version of ingoldwetrust 2021 report.
I therefore made a mistake with the date of implementation:

Quoting 
"In many countries, the NSFR already has to be complied with; in the EU, it will be mandatory in full from June 28, 2021, and in the USA from July 1, 2021. The UK, whose jurisdiction includes the London gold market, has postponed implementation to January 1, 2022"

Concerning aluminium, difficult to follow the price evolution and to trade except indirectly I have in mind miners such as Rio Tinto with bauxite production exposal and others and they are included in ETF EU Stoxx 600 Basic Resources (in my portfolio).

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  #130 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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job9 View Post
Hey! could you help me with my thesis?
I am job, a bachelor student at Wageningen university.
I made a questionnaire for my bachelor thesis about behavioral biases among futures investors. Would you please be a kind human being and take 2 minutes time to fill in my questionnaire. It will be appreciated!! You will get some good karma while trading futures 😉 the link to the questionnaire ->
https://wur.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_0VrhdubSFbVlUdU

Hey @job9 spamming the forums will just get you banned. Assuming this is for academic and not commercial reasons my advice would be to either
  • Create a new dedicated single thread asking people to take the survey and/or
  • Contact @Big Mike and ask him whether he can help you. If your lucky he may highlight your thread to other members.

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