NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





MY OILS GONE CRAZY


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Skyfly1715 with 5 posts (4 thanks)
    2. looks_two tr8er with 2 posts (3 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Trailer Guy with 1 posts (3 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Dolfin with 1 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Devil Man with 4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 tr8er with 1.5 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Skyfly1715 with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 5,503 views
    2. thumb_up 17 thanks given
    3. group 4 followers
    1. forum 12 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




 
Search this Thread

MY OILS GONE CRAZY

  #1 (permalink)
 Skyfly1715 
Dallas, Texas
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader 8
Broker: Ninja Trader Brokerage/NT8
Trading: CL, CG
Posts: 23 since Mar 2019
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 19

Have yall seen the crude oil? It's drop over 600 ticks. I've NEVER seen that! Ever! It banged a support from 2003 and best I can tell (cause NT8 can't get me back that far ) its at 28.27.

Started this thread Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
VFC turning around or continuing to fall?
Stocks and ETFs
Any futures traders in Texas looking to give back to tho …
Traders Hideout
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Diary of a simple price action trader
20 thanks
My NQ Trading Journal
17 thanks
Coding money management strategies.
14 thanks
Just another trading journal: PA, Wyckoff & Trends
12 thanks
Daytrading ES & NQ
9 thanks
  #3 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeNavigator, BookMap
Trading: ES, CL, 6E, 6B
Posts: 704 since Jan 2017
Thanks Given: 220
Thanks Received: 709


yep, from Friday's close it dropped over 1400 ticks (at the LOD). Last week (OPEC+ meeting) Russians were not willing to cut the production, so as revenge Saudis cut their OSP (oil selling price) by $ 8.-- over the weekend and now we see the result of this oil-war .

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #4 (permalink)
 Skyfly1715 
Dallas, Texas
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader 8
Broker: Ninja Trader Brokerage/NT8
Trading: CL, CG
Posts: 23 since Mar 2019
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 19


tr8er View Post
yep, from Friday's close it dropped over 1400 ticks (at the LOD). Last week (OPEC+ meeting) Russians were not willing to cut the production, so as revenge Saudis cut their OSP (oil selling price) by $ 8.-- over the weekend and now we see the result of this oil-war .

Where do you think it's going to end up? Because that 28.27 or there about is support and that goes back to 2003. I mean..it could go a lot lower.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #5 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeNavigator, BookMap
Trading: ES, CL, 6E, 6B
Posts: 704 since Jan 2017
Thanks Given: 220
Thanks Received: 709

No idea how far it will go

I see a low on 2-11-2016 of $ 26.05

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #6 (permalink)
 Skyfly1715 
Dallas, Texas
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader 8
Broker: Ninja Trader Brokerage/NT8
Trading: CL, CG
Posts: 23 since Mar 2019
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 19


tr8er View Post
No idea how far it will go

I see a low on 2-11-2016 of $ 26.05

But see here is the thing. There are now two "tick gaps". A tick chart shouldn't ever have a gap in it, yet it does happen. Has been happening regularly on Oil every Monday morning. But there is now one from Fed 24 and one from today. These gaps are going to have to be filled, it's not like a time gap. These things are like freaking magnets. Soon as it trends in that direction, well shit, you know right where it's going. But Heck.....up till last week I'd never seen a tick gap take longer than three days to fill, so who knows.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #7 (permalink)
Dolfin
Perth WA Australia
 
Posts: 6 since Nov 2019
Thanks Given: 15
Thanks Received: 2


Skyfly1715 View Post
But see here is the thing. There are now two "tick gaps". A tick chart shouldn't ever have a gap in it, yet it does happen. Has been happening regularly on Oil every Monday morning. But there is now one from Fed 24 and one from today. These gaps are going to have to be filled, it's not like a time gap. These things are like freaking magnets. Soon as it trends in that direction, well shit, you know right where it's going. But Heck.....up till last week I'd never seen a tick gap take longer than three days to fill, so who knows.

Where are those tick gaps at price wise thanks... cant see them on my charts....

Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)
 Skyfly1715 
Dallas, Texas
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader 8
Broker: Ninja Trader Brokerage/NT8
Trading: CL, CG
Posts: 23 since Mar 2019
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 19


Dolfin View Post
Where are those tick gaps at price wise thanks... cant see them on my charts....

The first one is on Feb 23 the gap to fill is 53.61

The second one is on March 8 the gap to fill is to 41.68

You should be able to see this on a tick chart. Even if you have a template set to RTH. A tick Chart shouldn't ever have a gap! But when it does it's like a beacon saying, " HERE I AM,,, HERE I AM " lol

I've been watching oil for sixteen years. Up till Feb 23 I'd never seen a "tick gap" take longer than three days to fill. So, you know, it's going to get filled. And I'm sure you saw what happen today on oil? But it might drift first down to 17.12 before correcting. I say that because that's the next line of support. And the psychology is with that just like the tick gap price seeks those levels.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #9 (permalink)
 Trailer Guy 
Aguanga, CA USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader 8
Broker: IB, NinjaTrader Brokerage, Schwab
Trading: ES
Posts: 215 since Sep 2014
Thanks Given: 68
Thanks Received: 387

Followed oil for over 20 years, I don't trade the futures. But I do get John Kemp (Reuters) charts.

This whole thing makes perfect sense from a playing to win point of view. The Shale drillers have been providing every marginal barrel for the world for several years. So OPEC keeps cutting production to maintain prices and the shale guys benefit. Putin saw an opening with the corona demand destruction and clearly the Saudis agree that now, when they are all going to get hurt anyway, is the time to eliminate shale drillers from the planet.

So three have filed so far and the bankruptcy attorneys in Texas and the Dakotas are going to be working overtime. The interesting thing to me is they are going to liquidate an entire industry, so the assets are worthless for now. If you think otherwise it could be a good time to pick up some acreage but my understanding is the leases require action, so you can't just sit on them for 5 years.

I expect that all those 28 year olds with Ivy Leage history degrees running hedge fund money will figure it out and short the snot out of the futures. I also expect the big boys will take those hedge funds to the cleaners on epic short squeezes.

I have seen that the big trading houses are leasing every drop of land storage and chartering most of the tanker fleet to cash in on this once in a generation con tango opportunity.

It is going to be exciting for the next couple of years.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #10 (permalink)
 
Devil Man's Avatar
 Devil Man 
Fort Lauderdale
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader, Python API
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES,NQ,CL
Posts: 850 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 3,411
Thanks Received: 1,534



Trailer Guy View Post
Followed oil for over 20 years, I don't trade the futures. But I do get John Kemp (Reuters) charts.

This whole thing makes perfect sense from a playing to win point of view. The Shale drillers have been providing every marginal barrel for the world for several years. So OPEC keeps cutting production to maintain prices and the shale guys benefit. Putin saw an opening with the corona demand destruction and clearly the Saudis agree that now, when they are all going to get hurt anyway, is the time to eliminate shale drillers from the planet.

So three have filed so far and the bankruptcy attorneys in Texas and the Dakotas are going to be working overtime. The interesting thing to me is they are going to liquidate an entire industry, so the assets are worthless for now. If you think otherwise it could be a good time to pick up some acreage but my understanding is the leases require action, so you can't just sit on them for 5 years.

I expect that all those 28 year olds with Ivy Leage history degrees running hedge fund money will figure it out and short the snot out of the futures. I also expect the big boys will take those hedge funds to the cleaners on epic short squeezes.

I have seen that the big trading houses are leasing every drop of land storage and chartering most of the tanker fleet to cash in on this once in a generation con tango opportunity.

It is going to be exciting for the next couple of years.

@Trailer Guy yup every concession I've ever known about had performance requirements mostly based on per acre/hectare to include minimum of 2D Seismic and Exploratory Drilling....some with much higher pre-req's than that. Many of them were well known to have 'producible' oil within the various rock formations in the basin so often the lease prices reflected that in an attempt to weed out the little guy and only go with the big drillers. Shale has always been difficult professionally and economically until recent times....the future sounds pretty bad for those guys, I feel for them. But like many things in life, oil is cyclical in nature and I don't doubt it will come back....stronger than ever with newer and cleaner technology that is more profitable than before..

Hope you and yours are well in this coronavirus fight we are in!

cheers

Johnny

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on April 22, 2020


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts