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How is this useful? If you know there is a high likely hood that the next L-L swing interval will be close to or equal to the prior H-H interval ( or vise versa ), you then have a reasonable expectation of how price might behave.
Does this always work? Of course not... but it's is better than stumbling around without any insight into what might occur next.
I've been discussing this swing as a Multi-Day Rotation and mentioned yesterday that this first (only?) leg up had likely found it's High in the overnight trading... and marked with a white dashed horizontal the price action that led me to that conclusion. The white arrows mark the Highs of the @ 24Hr rotations which in this series show 3 and 5 bar intervals. The current 360 Min bar is a Lower Bar High and has broken it's Bar Pivot... the behavior expected on the backside of the 24 Hr Rotation. Look closely and you can see the Body High of this bar is at the level of the prior bar's POC.
"The bulls will try to hold the line in this 1.17560 area to defend the up swing but I suspect they will fail."
This comment was made @ this time yesterday and although 1.17560 was defended through out the day this level did break at the end of the Session and in the Overnight the Bulls reclaimed the lost ground. Yesterday's Close.... 1.17560.
Had mentioned that the white 24Hr ma was the Backbone of the MD rotation and that when it trends sideways while it rolls over price will rotate around this indicator. On the chart you can see that this Ma has aligned with the 24 Hr Globex Pivot and both are dead center in the Range of these two days.
Coming into today's session price is on the backside of both the 24 Hr and MD Rotations and this suggests there will be pressure to test lower. A triangle has the potential of forming as the black trendlines suggest and I expect this to break and price to drop to the 1.7360 area.
Started this series last Thursday with the intent of doing a walk thru of the first MD Rotation of the expected bounce off support indicated on the charts posted because I considered it a critical event in the evolving Multi-Year Rotation of the Euro. I made an effort to point out what the price action was telling me about the way in which the MD rotation was playing out and how I expected price to behave and where I though it would go. In looking over the posts a reasonably good job was done in most instances. The most appropriate comment that characterized this week was: " Sometimes price will do what you expect but not in the way you expect it to."
This following comment shows the importance of being aware of larger time frame rotations and how that can influence price behavior: "As this is taking on the look of a MW Upswing instead of a MD retracement in an ongoing decline, it is reasonable to expect the attempt to put in a more significant low will continue for a few more days. There will likely be a test of support which could bring price back down to the MD area ( blue circle ) before the next attempt to push higher. Usually out of a Low of this magnitude, the first up swing will Right Translate as opposed to the Left-Translation that we've be given during this decline. For this reason I expect this initial push to have more juice left before we see a test of support."
At the beginning a Monthly Chart pointed out the approximate 3+ yr rotation of the Euro's economic cycle. The below chart shows on a Weekly basis the latest of those swings. You can see on the right that the Weekly bars have carved out a descending wedge pattern which traditionally is viewed as leading to a reversal. Price is also testing the support on the bottom inside edge of my custom S/R band, the breaking of which would be significant. So, two potential but opposed outcomes are possible. The Bulls dig in here and absorb enough of the Bears selling inventory that the Bears pause in their efforts and allow price to lift to a higher and better place to resume the selling. On this chart that would be the center of the band which is also the location of a Big Fat Number... 1.2000. The other scenario is the Bulls fold and this collapses. You will notice on this chart that on the longer term context, this Multi-Year swing high, assuming it has been found, failed to reach the top of the channel, white trend lines. That is a particularly ominous sign.
Going to end this here. Although I enjoy talking about analysis, the process of putting these charts with commentary together is a major distraction in my trading day and several times I'm come perilously close to missing a trade opportunity.
So, the next time I see something significant about to occur I'll post to this thread again.
Your insights into market cycles have always been helpful to my own trading. Your top down approach, beginning with the monthly chart, gives a really good framework to put context into current price action. Your 5 minute charts always make the entries and exits looks clear as day.
Thank you for taking the time to write up your analyses and post your charts on this thread.
