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>>As of this post, price is pushing up to test the resistance of this week's Pivot at 1.15970. In a strong downtrend, Weekly High's will typicaly be made on a Monday or Tuesday and the Weekly Pivot is as good a place as any to find that High. If price breaks the Pivot and pushes up to a Thursday - Friday Weekly High then this is likely a push up out of a Multi-Week Rotation Low and if the 1.161 - 1.162 area can be broken then 1.165 - 1.17 becomes a possibility.<<
As can be seen in the above chart price did push higher in the Overnight trading to test the Weekly Pivot. Because I recognize that precision is not possible in analysis, I use several factors to define areas of S/R to identify a range to expect S/R to arise. For the Multi-Day Rotation, an average duration of 5 Days. I look at a 5 Day SMA, the Weekly Pivot, and the Middle of the 5 Day Donchian Channel. The combination of these three in addition to the POC of the prior 5 days will bracket an area that is a high probability zone to expect S/R to materialize. So what you can see on this chart is a test of MD Resistance. The Middle of the 5 Day Donchian, which is plotted on the next chart, is at the High of Friday and (so far) today. In looking at Today's bar, which currently only displays the Overnight trading, price got a fairly strong rejection from the area of MD Resistance. Is this a strongly negative indication? Not yet. You will notice that price is holding ( finding support ) on the 24 Hr Pivot at 1.15810. If the rejection from MD resistance marks the turn lower of the MD Rotation then the 24 Hr Pivot will be unable to support price for very long as the MD Down selling overwhelms the 24 Hr Up buying. A critically important concept. So, as long as the Pivot holds, the turn lower of the MD Rotation is not a given.
This 360 Min chart helps to answer the riddle. White arrows mark the 24 H - L rotations of @ 4 bars... ( 4 * 6 Hrs = 24 Hrs ). Notice the High of Friday was 4 bars from the prior 24 Hr High and gave us a strong rejection for the Blue Middle of the 5 Day Donchian Channel. This gave the "look" of a Left Translated MD Cycle... what you see in an on going downtrend. But instead of continuing to break lower, on this chart price gave higher lows on the next two bars which, if the 24 Hr Rotation and the MD Rotation were pushing lower, should not have occurred. Overnight price pushed up again to test and was again rejected in the area of MD resistance and in falling into the Overnight Low, changed the story. The Overnight Low is now a good candidate for the LOD, 4 bars from the Prior 24 Hr Low. This suggests that today's Overnight High is a better candidate for the 24 Hr Rotation High than Friday's High and as such, we now have a Right Translated 24 Hr Cycle... not what you see on the Downside of the MD Rotation. One of the few Truisms in price behavior is that the more times an area of S/R is tested, the more likely it is to break. Price has now tested MD Resistance twice and as the saying goes, and as price is once again pushing higher, the third time is the charm.
So, Today's outcome hinges on if the 24 Hr Pivot holds or breaks, and if MD Resistance ( the Overnight Highs ) continues to reject Price or gives it up. The make it conceptually a bit more complex, I speculated on the status of the MW Rotation. If that is in its Up phase, then MD Resistance will break and the upside targets mentioned in last night's post are now in play.
Good Luck, Be careful.
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Sunday Evening: "In a strong downtrend, Weekly High's will typically be made on a Monday or Tuesday and the Weekly Pivot is as good a place as any to find that High"
This AM: "Today's outcome hinges on if the 24 Hr Pivot holds or breaks, and if MD Resistance ( the Overnight Highs ) continues to reject Price or gives it up."
Curiouser and curiouser. Notice the final 360 min bar of today got a bounce off the Uptrend Line.,, there are still some optimistic Buyers. If you draw a horizontal from the low of this bar which is Today's Low, it defines the support level for the prior two days... that and the Uptrend Line may have been the rationale for this minor bounce at the Close but to seal the fate of the MD Rotation, that it has rolled over and is pushing down, this last level of support needs to break.
Notice the Market Profile to the right. The Blue 5 day POC is roughly in the middle of this 4 day range which suggest an area of Balance rather than Top Distribution. It is not much given the other evidence, but as far as this indicator is concerned, it is not screaming Sell.
I suspect this will all be resolved in the Overnight. Right now price has every excuse it needs to head lower and if the Sellers are unable to take advantage of this opportunity and price fails to break this very tentative level of support it found near the Close, that will be because the Buyers are standing here and absorbing whatever is on sale.
I keep being surprised that no one but @glennts seems to be willing to post any ideas about the Euro, a major trading vehicle.
I assume people still trade it and have their views on it.
@glennts's charts are a little unusual, and it may be that so one wants to comment on them, but his do not need to be the only ones that are seen here.
If anyone has an interest is the instrument and wants to add their thoughts, please feel free. It would be good to see this thread revive.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
I do trade a bit of EUR but must admit that I am not versed in market profile and struggle interpreting glennt's charts. I definitely appreciate the contributions but we're speaking a different language here.
So what am I looking at? First, the macro picture. Germany's recent elections and CDU/CSU losses leave the fiscal hawks in a severely weakened state. Coalition talks will go on for a while and the FDP will provide a much-needed counter-balance to the Greens, but in the final analysis it looks highly unlikely that we'll see much bullish EUR news come out of this process. Europe's energy issues now also weigh on the EUR as Europe struggles to secure necessary supplies before winter and Russia once again holds the upper hand. The German export picture with China also looks vulnerable amid this Evergrande situation. And most importantly, impending Fed tapering in the US put the dollar on a much stronger footing from a monetary policy standpoint. So the macro headwinds continue to blow strongly against the EUR right now.
COT and other positioning data indicate speculators leaning long USD and short EUR, so from a positioning standpoint we may be getting closer to finding some support, but it doesn't appear dangerously one-sided here and absent a catalyst I think a lot of these longer-term players are content to let these positions ride into the actual taper-announcement and year-end.
Now to the charts. The weekly and daily timeframes show a pretty clear downtrend. Lower highs, lower lows, moving averages pointing downwards, etc. We're also approaching the 50% retracement of the entire 2020 move off the post COVID lows. This mid-point coincides with the 1.15 area, which marked the top of the March 2020 spike high and subsequent breakout / launch point for the recovery rally. And as many long-term observers have surely noticed, the EUR loves to pivot off these round figures.
So 1.15 might be near-term magnet on this downside move and how the EUR reacts there could be telling. Given current positioning I feel like it could find some initial support there but with the likely Fed taper announcement on Nov. 3 I also expect to see further appetite for USD longer term. Remember, the ECB is still maintaining negative interest rates and Bund yields remain in negative territory as well, making them unattractive to international investors. So I have a hard time imagining that the downtrend in EUR is close to being over.
I don't have any meaningful positions on at the moment, but if anything I'd remain a better seller at least until we reach that 1.15 level.
Yesterday: "if the Sellers are unable to take advantage of this opportunity and price fails to break this very tentative level of support it found near the Close, that will be because the Buyers are standing here and absorbing whatever is on sale."
An attempt is being made to put in a higher time frame low... what that means it that the behavior on this chart suggests that those players who trade a Multi-Week or perhaps a Multi-Month swing are absorbing the selling with the expectation of higher prices. Whether or not they can pull it off remains to be seen.
It is not uncommon before a reversal occurs to see what I call a Stop Cleaner, in this case a rapid sell off to hit the Stops that are lingering below what is now an obvious support level... take out the Longs, get traders Short and then make 'em cry. If you trade the NQ you have experienced this several times a day. Given this potential scenario, I will look at any drops as a potential Long Entry opportunity. Look at the Low on Friday, there is an 8 bar count below it, clearly someone is place bets on the Long Side.
Bob West: "@glennts's charts are a little unusual"
Schnook: "must admit that I am not versed in market profile and struggle interpreting glennt's charts"
Thank you both for contributing... it's getting lonely out here.
As to my charts, there actually is a method behind the madness.
Way back when, after several stumbles trying to make this work, I stepped back and tried to understand the problems that needed to be solved.
The first realization I had was that if the majority of people attempting to trade absolutely fail, and if all of those folks are using basically the same conceptual approach to charting and analysis, if I am doing the same then aren't I just following in their footsteps and won't this bring me to the same final place. From that I decided that the route to success was down a different path. If anything, I did not want to do what everyone else was doing.... harshly...Lemmings jumping over the cliff.
To this end I spent a decade to figure out what I need to see to make a profitable trade and then develop the charts and original indicators that would show me what I needed to see.
For example, how many people use the canned indicators that come with their platform and keep the same default settings for those indicators.... like most people do. How many people use the same time settings. Does your 60 Min bar roll over at the top of the hour? Mine doesn't... and the reason is I do not want to be looking at what you and most other traders are looking at. I want to see what you don't see.
" It is not uncommon before a reversal occurs to see what I call a Stop Cleaner, in this case a rapid sell off to hit the Stops that are lingering below what is now an obvious support level...... I will look at any drops as a potential Long Entry opportunity. "
I appreciate this sentiment. But when engaging with others in a discussion forum, most of whom have found their own way, it helps to convey your ideas in a manner that they might actually understand. Your charts have so many various lines, dots, dashes, circles, arrows, colors and shapes it's literally impossible for anyone other than you to know what they're looking at. Moreover, the last few participants who have tried to contribute some substantive discussion here have been summarily ignored. So if you're wondering why it sometimes seems like you're just talking to yourself here, well, maybe it's because you're pretty much just talking to yourself here
Schnook: " Your charts have so many various lines, dots, dashes, circles, arrows, colors and shapes it's literally impossible for anyone other than you to know what they're looking at."
Point taken... however, I have endeavored in the commentary and in the chart notation to provide an explanation for all those dots, circles, arrows and shapes and if one takes the time and put in the effort to study them perhaps it will make sense.... to some.
"Moreover, the last few participants who have tried to contribute some substantive discussion here have been summarily ignored."
Not by me.
I think you are the only one who has posted a chart since I began this series. I see your chart as self explanatory and not in need of any comment.... or questions. Questions I have assumed anyone would ask if they need further explanation.
If you have any questions that might help you understand my charts then please post them.
