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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,757 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,497
Thanks Received: 3,060
My discipline kept me out of trouble today. Obviously I was stopped out within 20 minutes of market open but resisted my temptation to revenge trade.
Strange how these things work! I was very nervous yesterday to short the market and reached my targets 3 times! I was pretty confident of this market rolling over today but it kept creeping higher and higher to a Monster rally.
Anyways, back to the 11 AM lesson.
If Markets don't begin to reverse by 11 AM chicago time (coincides with European close, I believe), then it's highly unlikely to do so. Put it in a different way, if we make new highs after 11 AM, then market is unlikely to reverse.
My above belief system and improved discipline kept me out of trouble today.
However, I lost my discipline in my swing/position trading. My first short was 1950 about 5 weeks ago, then added another one at 1905 post NFP. Though I resolved NOT to add to my losing position, it was mouth watering today to average and hence added my final/3rd position at 2047. Worst case scenario - If we make all time high, I will loose 25% of my account. I may hold it until ATH/rollover and target is August low and Below. Quite a wide net
I am being stubborn with my swing trading and glad that I am improving my discipline with day-trading.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,757 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,497
Thanks Received: 3,060
I don't do well on Gap up days. Yesterday was an exception. Today is the norm
I was excited to see a good shorting opportunity at 2024 but failed to wait for confirmation of weakness. I didn't even look at internals, Tick, Breadth and volume all supported further uptrend. I will learn soon to go with the trend. Atleast I didn't fight too hard today and accepted defeat after my first stop loss
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,757 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,497
Thanks Received: 3,060
No trade today as I woke up too early, went back to bed and missed US open. Perhaps, my mind wants rest for a day after the jubilation/ carnage yesterday.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,757 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,497
Thanks Received: 3,060
I am aware that I am a PermaBear and mentioned here that all my day-trading in the last 3 weeks are SHORTS. I am trying to unload that bias but it's not easy.
However, I don't necessarily see that as a problem since my style is fading and the context of the market was that we were at value high for the last 2 weeks. Then we had the breakout yesterday.
Now I will consider long if there is confirmation that this break out is real and forms a new balance. Then I will fade the lows Infact, I considered long today at the support level of 1952 but market didn't quite go down that far.
My execution is pretty simple now. What are the chances of my stops being hit at 8 points away Vs my targets being hit at 12 points away? Using that logic, I didn't have a good location and hence staying out today.
Wednesday - 3 trades and all of them hit the target = +72 points (best day so far)
Thursday - Stopped out very early on due to big trend UP day.
All the days, only shorting tried.
So far the market condition has good for my trading style i.e Fading value high area. Now that we broke out of the range, I will try and master the harder approach i.e Longs and going with the trend. Monday's action will confirm whether it's a genunie breakout or a false one to trap longs above 200 days MA.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,757 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,497
Thanks Received: 3,060
Still no clear winner in this day-time battle but Bulls in control over the next bigger time frame.
I ended up taking a short at 2064. Possibly lost my patience or over-zealous to get trading data.
I saw buyers struggling to push the price higher and sellers showing up with higher volume and average size. Couple that with weak internals, I felt the odds of 2052 being reached is more than the price going upto 1972 today.
The only downside is that my stop at 1972 is right within noise of friday's high. That means even an inside day could take me out of the trade.