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It turns out I'm very uneducated when it comes to volume profile. I'm just learning about how to categorize these days now, and I have a lot of lingo to learn.
I have no idea about volume profile to be honest! I know the theory of market profile but after studying it for a while I decided it wasn’t for me. Everything I say is related to price action and the teachings of Al Brooks. Different types of traders will often use different jargon to effectively describe the same thing, it’s a minefield!
Today was most certainly a range day, and a pretty awful one at that. I don't necessarily agree with the idea that "most day traders" only chart the RTH, but that doesn't have much to do with whether it's a trend or range day. The main idea, Zach, is that you can't draw too many conclusions from the overnight session. It's impacted by many factors that may or may not carry into the RTH. That said, as a short-term trader, I look at levels from the overnight session and compare them to previous areas where we've stopped and started. Also, the overnight high and low can be support/resistance during the RTH, and having some sense of where we went overnight certainly won't do you any harm. Just don't think that what happened overnight sets up a trend for the next day.
Every day is a new day, but each new day is born of market history. That fact is that we are going to have reactions at some of the places where we've had previous reactions. But we're also subject to the market manipulations of the president, which means you have to be prepared for erratic market behavior. I try to come to the market without too many preconceptions about what is going to happen, primarily because I have no idea. But as the day starts to unfold, things get clearer. There is no harm in waiting to see what happens rather than acting on a "belief" about what might happen.
You're doing solid work here with your daily dissection of your approach. Keep at it.
I actually waited for confirmation to enter this trade through OrderFlow after realizing yesterday that I've been trading what I think should happen and what I want to happen, rather than trading what actually is happening. Thank you @michaelleemoore, because your reply contributed to this realization on top of watching this video about the differences between amateur traders and professionals- the vital difference being is that professionals analyze the interaction of price at a given level of interest, rather than just enter blindly when price reaches that level. I've consistently been doing the latter for most of my trading career. So instead of clinging to my pre-open thoughts on where I think price is going to go and setting conclusive entry targets, I need to better integrate live price action into what should be hypotheses of future market sentiment that I should be relatively unattached to. I'll keep this in mind tomorrow morning.
Anyways, todays price was rolling in a very narrow range. I was sitting patiently and watching the OrderFlow for a break-out in either direction, but my bias was long. After more than an hour of watching price make small waves, I got in long after some fast-climbing level changes in the OrderFlow. It was consistent in its movement with not much hesitation or drops, so I was willing to risk 3 points on this breakout trade. I got in a tick early, watched price go in my favor 5 points, and watched it reverse and stop me out an hour later. I did acknowledge that I should get out given the context of the market (it was a very rangey day, buying ceased less than half-way to my profit target) but I don't plan on breaking any of my personal rules anytime soon. To me, this week is more about discipline and consistency than being right on a trade.
Overall, it was a fantastic trading day.
2/5 days done. I'm confident that I can go another 3 days without violating any rules.
In my opinion, today was a tough day to trade. I feel like if I can stay committed to my approach on a day like this, then hell yeah it was a good day!! Nice Zachary!
I sat on my hands and watched OrderFlow intently for a couple of hours, but there were no solid break-out opportunities. There were two moments where price came close to different areas that I was interested in, but the behavior of price overall after the open rendered my hypotheses questionable, and unrealistic / not tailored for current conditions. The market definitely isn't trading the way it was last week, so I have to be careful.
Today was a test of my patience. Had I been more excited to enter a trade, this would've been a repeat of Monday.
3/5 days down and we're still looking good. Hopefully we get some real action tomorrow.
Good job on exercising patience. It’s not easy to sit down to trade and not take any entries. Remember you can also use market replay to gain experience too and at this point you may want to concentrate your efforts on education rather than live trading.
I forgot to make this clear! I am not trading live. I stopped trading live last Friday, because honestly I know I have no business trading real money with next to no evidence of being consistent in SIM. I'm trading in SIM in the MES again, and once I can prove to myself that I can trade consistently, then I'll go back to live trading. The 2 days that I traded live last week were a test of my psychology, and I surprised myself. It's not so bad losing money, as long as I'm being responsible with my risk, and if I accept the risk in the first place. I do desire to trade real money again, but I know I'm not ready skill-wise. I still have a lot to learn and a trading identity to form. I feel no need to rush this and I'm proud of my consistency this week. However long it takes, I'll do the right things.
As for educating myself, I've been doing a lot of that too. OrderFlow is a beautiful thing. I really like Merritt Blacks webinars, he has some excellent videos on YouTube that are changing my mind:
If you have anything that you think I might find useful, feel free to send whatever it is to me. I'll naturally pick and choose methods or approaches to incorporate by how much I like them.
For my first trade, I entered short 10 minutes after the open on a bearish breakout. My hypothesis for the bearish breakout scenario was that price had the potential to reach ~2805. I set my profit target there, and entered at 2823.25. I was only risking 2.75 points, and had relatively great trade location:
The sellers dried up and the buyers came in and I got stopped out an hour after entry. In terms of trade location and risk, this might be one of the best trades I've taken. For my second trade, I was looking to go short again. I almost called it a day after the first trade but I remembered that I need to act consistently. Last week, almost every second trade I took was a winner because I decided to re-try entering a breakout that I failed the first time. This kind of thing happened like three days in a row. So that's what I did here, without success:
In terms of a good signal, this trade had a better one compared to the first. Price went down fast and smooth as I was watching the OrderFlow. Price got nervous quickly though.
4/5 days down without breaking a single rule and staying consistent. It was especially a good trading day because I realized how little you need to risk if you get in at the right time. I was more attentive to where I placed my stop this morning, and I'll have to remember this kind of stop placement tomorrow.