Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Excellent one from @tigertrader It applies to whatever time frame you are trading.
If a trader takes a random approach to the market, he will make random trades, have random luck, and random results. he is simply making binary bets and doesn't have a thesis to support his decision, nor the feedback necessary to either confirm or refute his bias. The trade starts going against him and he panics and gets out, or the trade starts going his way and he panics and gets out. There's nothing to tell him if he should stay or if he should go. If a trader understands what is happening in the market and why the trade is working or not working, then he has a much better chance of exploiting the trade. If he continues to receive the same feedback he had before he initiated the trade, while he's in the trade, he has a much better chance of optimizing the trade. There has to be a reason based approach, otherwise you're just gambling. If you're gambling then you are a willing loser who occasionally wins, because you are playing a game with a negative*expectancy. A trader on the other hand, is a willing winner who occasionally loses, because he is playing a game with a positive expectancy. Traders trade to make money, but sometimes pay the price for the risk they incur. A gambler may think he is out to make money, but his reward is usually non-monetary.
Monthly & Weekly- Bullish Overbought but price reversed at trend line as expected
Weekly - {Two weeks back prediction}, Overbought Bullish with Inverted Head and Shoulder but declining buying interest. If Inverted H&S materializes we can see 60 as first price target else it can come back to 50.
This week price bounced at the tag of Weekly 10 EMA we need to see follow through if we want to call this as new bearish trend.
{Two weeks back analysis} Daily - Bullish Trend - Tried to break the bullish trend couple of times but buyers got it back up to the range. Resistance at 54.20 and support at 53.60 and 53.20 it's hard to predict the price.
{This week} Daily - Bearish Trend - Touched weekly S1 and reversed hard as expected for re-touch of MA's so buyers don't want to give up on this yet so trying to make it as RANGE.
{Two weeks back analysis} 15 min - Slightly Bearish Trend - If this bearish trend continues we can see 53.20 quickly.
{This week} - After boucing back to range price failed to reach upper end of the range i.e 54.20 and 55.20 and now it seems price wants to resume bearish direction but found support at Weekly VWAP multiple times.
My plan
Short Trades
I have to assume price will resume it's BEARISH trend once it breaks weekly VWAP but first break or touch will always be proctected so be caustioius and don't jump yet. Place short positions in anticipation of trend contiuation at key levels.
Long Trades
Since buyers defended weekly VWAP multiple times if we trend change then jump into long trades at levels. I am bearish because Monthly/Weekly/Daily chars looks bearish.
I know I sound confusing but that's the way it is for me.
This is worst case scenario of counter trend trading and I am trying to avoid this situation in my swing trading but it is within my loss tolerance levels. I had to leave the trade open because of tornado siren and didn't enter properly. If I can avoid this kind of counter trend trading then I would do wonders...Even-though I am 100% profitable and about 4K profit in three days but draw down is huge and in real time it will take toll on your mind and makes you to exit at worst possible scenario.
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 7,341
Thanks Received: 4,518
To me, on the contrary, it sounds like good old fashioned hard work.
I have learned a few things from Peter Brandt about swings and you seems from your analysis to be using head and shoulders etc the very type of analysis Peter does. Peter is an icon in this industry and wrote the foreword for The Little Book of Market Wizard....
1. I wanted to take short at Last week hight but price didn't reach there and missed 53.52 area also
2. Shorted at 52.90 based on monthly vwap band (Random line but decent one)
3. Price moved in my favor initially and held below 53
4. Price dropped after Europe open and didn't want to loose 110 ticks on CL (Of course, I traded QM for mental peace), some 60 ticks aheard of target because I thought at PIT open price will bounce and can reshort but that never happned so coverd 60 ticks earlier to see price hit my target to the tick and reversed.
I missed intraday trades long and short because of meetings.
Key thing is to know when to press and when not to press...anyway one good trade this year so wanted to share.
Expanding my trading to three other instruments i.e Natural Gas via QG, Gold via MicroGC or mini Gold (YG) and Mini Russel (TF).
I know what people say about it..WTF! he CAN'T even trade one instrument properly now he wants to trade FOUR
My biggest issue has been time and position sizing. For time issue swing trading and for position size issue mini instruments because of overnight holding margins are I can with stand (QM - $2700, QG-$1000, MGC- $600 and TF - $4500 (I recently learned ICE reduced tick size to half so now it's ok for me). Except for Natural gas I traded all other markets before.
Reason is if I miss a setup for whatever reason I am waiting, waiting, waiting more and getting frustrated and doing a dumb mistake.
Gold trade
Shorted GC at 1213 and exited at 1204 after three days because that damn thing doesn't want to sell off and now shorts have to give up and that's what happening right now.
Natural gas
Long at 3.30 since yesterday and it move initial against and came back and moving again...I have to be patient with this one and must be ready to add if it goes down.