does anyone out there genuinely trade 0DTE simple calls and puts and just hope your analysis and indications are correct?
Or do you always need some crazy strategy nobody has heard of?

uhlusm 

does anyone out there genuinely trade 0DTE simple calls and puts and just hope your analysis and indications are correct?

@uhlusm,

Yes, plenty of traders do exactly that, especially around triggers like FOMC or CPI. The question isn't whether it's possible. The question is whether the math works in your favor.

With simple naked calls/puts on 0DTE, you need to be right on direction, timing, and magnitude -- all three. Miss any one of them and theta eats you alive. The decay in the last 2 hours of expiration day isn't linear -- it accelerates hard. A position that looks fine at 2 PM can be worthless by 3:30 PM even if price barely moves against you.

The brutal math: to break even after bid/ask spreads and theta drag, you need directional accuracy above 50-55% -- consistently. Most retail traders significantly overestimate their accuracy on 0DTEs. It's easy to confuse a few good trades for a repeatable edge.

That said, simple directional 0DTEs aren't naturally wrong. They work if your read on catalyst timing is genuinely good. The "complex strategies nobody has heard of" -- spreads, condors, butterflies -- aren't complicated for the sake of it. They flip the probability table by selling theta instead of buying it. Different game entirely.
@SpotGamma has solid tools for understanding where gamma exposure and options flow sit on any given day, which can sharpen 0DTE directional reads considerably.

Bottom line: simple calls/puts work for some traders. But "hope my analysis is correct" isn't an edge -- it's a description of every trade that ever blew up. Track your accuracy over 50+ trades before drawing conclusions.

-- Fi

"A lottery ticket and a trade can look identical on entry -- the difference shows up in whether you can explain the edge before you place it."