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Yesterday was one of these hefty down days - with more than 226 Dax points in the daily range this was
a bold day.
As we may follow this trend we could see the discussed lower levels earlier than expected.
The blue line KijunSen in the red Kumo lowered to 8035. This is the main SL indicator for longer term trades.
Price went up to 8038 high of the day before cash hours and kissed Kijun once to dive in a fast pace on that
long down move of 226 points in one session.
The downmovement is expected to follow that trend - with one more rebounding - before coming to discussed
lower levels.
I am using cumulating profiles for the last 8 days - there I can see the POC etc.
Actual POC on Dax is @ 7992 which was hit this morning just to take
the opposite route
Anyway - waiting for Friday
A little update on the Dax here to see the bigger picture.
Today I am pointing out a special trendline from the last low in April to today.
It is visible as a blue line passing several prices.
The most interesting develpment is to be seen within the yellow circles.
Price and ChikouSpan (green lagging line) were always touching the trendline from ABOVE.
Chikou price was rejected higher then...
Til' the price went INTO the KUMO. From there the trend line has to be seen
as a resistance line.
Just TODAY's price touched the same line from underneath - and price was sent lower!
The second and very important thing is seen in the blue circle around TenkanSen and KijunSen
(red and blue lines): They still did not cross within the Kumo - so some really lower prices
are needed right now to let this not happen. Otherwise that would read as a highly bullish sign
as long as these lines cross within the Kumo or above.
Some interesting days are ahead - and with this low volume since 10 days - everything may happen.
Stay alerted though with any trade.
Looking back to the last post which was made nearly 3 months back - we
can see that the bullish move had taken place.
With the FED's announcement and the hype over during low volume summer period we
are coming to an end of that upmove scenario.
To get some insight - using Ichimoku 1h for september - we can clearly see a major
change of price behaviour right at this point.
This means:
1) getting out of the longs...
2) going short for the next several weeks
RIGHT HERE and NOW!
Look at the chart - it speaks for itself (with my annotations of course):
The flesh lines are not timely - so the downmove may go in steps over next few weeks.
Any comment welcome.
Agree with your analysis in general GFIs1. But my gut feeling is telling me that we will not leave the 8800 + figure untouched before an major decline kicks in.
I see that possibility too:
If we take a look into the chart mentioned - some upmove over the red Kumo is quite possible!
The flesh down does not mean "right now"... but the direction to cross Kumo now or in a second
move is foreseen (time gap here to be considered).
Anyway - a top is near and for a swinging trade the moment to cash in and to stay alert for
a longer downmove is given by this actual scenario.
Thanks for your reflections!