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Since you edited this post. I am going to respond.
You said "2. The debt ceiling was being raised every month back in 2011 because Congress would kick the can down the road." This is clearly false despite your poor effort to justify it.
You also said, "The market also rebounded in Aug and first part of September 2008". This is false because the market peaked 8/11/08.
I'll give you that what you said here, "But CL didn't start tanking below $100 until the fall of Lehman Brothers all the way down to $30ish at the end of 2008", is technically correct even though I think a $40 drop in two months is tanking.
You first made a mistake saying things that weren't true. Then you made it worse by poorly trying to justify your points. You lost all credibility.
I was asked what economic fundamentals I look at to determine whether to be selling ES puts or not. I keep a spreadsheet (I have over 250 spreadsheet pages of data and charts for my trading in various commodities) I nicknamed recession indicator. I did not have it in 2007-2008 and I wish I did because I would have made even more money. But we should all learn from our mistakes and I have it now.
As you can see housing dropped severely in 2007. Retail sales and corporate profits started down in early 2008.
Of course you also have to follow what congress and the rest of the world is up to.
BTW a debt ceiling increase is needed in Sep. The Fed mtg announcement in Sep will be important. It will be a crazy month that I may sit out or reduce my amount of trading for part of it. I'll know when we get closer. But remember IMO I am more risk adverse right now than the average trader.
I don't question the returns of Ron. He started selling ES puts in 2011 and now look at the chart of the S&P. It went up all the time. So ofcourse selling DOTM options were profitable. Ofcourse!
The point i made was:
1) Huge returns comes with higher risk. This is a law in finance. If the reverse was true, why would anybody buy indexfunds if can earn more with less risk?
2) You can't foresee all the following crashes. Nobody can.
3) There is no big deal in selling DOTM options in a rising stock market. The real test is how you survive in big corrections lasting one year (or longer) like 2008.
But no problem. I wont post anything in this thread anymore.
I'm leaving. I wish you all the best.
As indicator use Price and as parameters for the price the symbol. The chart has used this twice, the first with symbol $NYADV:$CPC and the second with $ONE:$CPC. Also you can do the reverse having the ratios as the primary symbol and $SPX above or below it as an indicator.
Btw. It's a very valuable thread so I hope the heat of the recent discussions won't have affect on the thread. For myself I do options on equities but wishing to change partly to options on commodities and ES maybe ... in the meanwhile reading this huuuuge thread
I should have mentioned that I had both call and puts on at the start of the month of July when it was around $59-61 range. At that point I was neutral since I thought it was range bound but that was quickly changed as we are down $14 (over 20%) from 1 month ago
As long as they keep adding rigs in the US it seem to keep going down
I know many in the media are watching drilling rigs, but it is far more important to watch oil production. The wells being started now are much more productive than in the past.