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I appreciate the .02. The volume charts can certainly be misleading at times- they speed up and slow down drastically everyday. As for VP, I use it mainly to determine S/R and entry. I think me trying to incorporate so many different strategies into mine has held me back. I do currently trade off a dom, though it may not be a good one.
As far as mentors, I am all for Al Brooks. I subscribe to his trading room and am 100% happy. I use the archived videos that he provides to practice some more. You seem to trade Al B's style, so you might benefit from it. Suggest watching his demo trading room video, also can subscribe free for a 2-day trial. FIO has quite a few seminars by him, that you could watch. I specially recommend the latest "Opening Range..." or similar name. I am incorporating the concepts from that seminar into my day trading.
Edit: You can get one-month of back archived videos of his trading room I think for $50. You could probably spend a week or two going over them (and going over them again and again and again). He crams 30 years of price action experience into his talk, so one pass over them is NOT enough.
I have no association with Al Brooks except for being his student. For me, he is the real deal.
Almost any method may be used to trade but it is vitally important to find something that makes sense to you and practice it. A 61% win is good, but it must also make money. Hopefully the winners are bigger than losers.
Keep practicing until suddenly you say, ‘Why am I not trading this?’ It should be immediate, obvious, and undeniable.
I believe you must practice, sim, back/forward test, whatever… by hand, using the exact tools you trade with, everything. In addition, you may also use any automatic analysis to add information, to improve your understanding. Become the expert in who you are, what you do and don’t stop there, always try to learn something new. The market can be your best teacher.
Now the important part. I find most wanting traders spend a disproportionate amount of time trying to find trades. There are more good trades than it is possible to trade. Seldom will you hear when or how to get out.
Predictions are unpredictable. They simply offer an opportunity to trade. Learn when your predictions go wrong! Learn how to stop trading, how/when to get out. Learn it better than when to trade. Know when your predictions are wrong. Was that mentioned twice?
Not trading prevents loss, trading offers gain. Both are essential.
You see something you believe will work, work until you prove it. Hope this helps.
Here is my 2 cents of advice...I have been there, done what you did and felt like how you feel many many times. I still do, although not quite as often. You are not alone in the journey.
1. If you are consistently losing, you are consistently buying high and selling low or trading within rotations (volatility) on any given day. Try to find out what is low, high on a relative basis and what the volatility for a given session.
2. You need to adapt to the market. I see you mention limit order and stop order entries. There is no one type that works every day. You have to adjust according to the day. Observe what the market is doing in a session and then pick one.
3. Make your observations about #1 and #2, then start just with 1 trade per day with a bracket order. One good trade per day. Wait until you think the trade is one of the best for the day. Doesn't matter whether you win or lose. Do this consistently and it should boost your confidence.
In my opinion and own experience - 1 year of studies is nothing in this business, so you should perhaps manage your expectations.
I also have the belief that the most worthwhile stuff on trading will not be found in books or shared freely on forums beyond hints or clues as to which direction to look or what to look at.
If it's actually only one year you've been doing this, I'd stop trading completely (probably a good idea anyway) and start building a methodology from scratch. Start with a clean slate. Expect to spend a few years on this.
What you have in front of you is moving prices. They go up. They go down. How much up? How much down? How often? Start measuring the market and understand how it moves. Concentrate on the swings of the market and their sizes. Look at the daily ranges.
Collect statistics and metrics of the market you trade. Know it inside out. Then, you'll trade the market with confidence and certainty because you know how it normally moves and you also know how it moves when it does not move normally.
The ES and any other market have two basic structures: up days and down days where an up day is one which have the day low before the day high and vice versa. Learn these two.
Nothing beats knowledge and experience. This is best learned and absorbed by yourself. If you're at any point surprised when the market does something it's a clear sign you don't know your market well enough. The market should become a familiar place where you roughly know what's going to happen or what's most likely to happen on any given day.
If you have a tested methodology which you can trade profitably with simulator trading using realistic parameters (no average down or similar), but find yourself having issues with real money, then - maybe then you have psychological issues.
This is NOT the case with most people.
Taking care of your methodology and market understanding usually takes care of psychological issues.
"as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on"
Say you get a strong bull bar and then a decent follow-thru bar. Assuming we are not an obvious resistance area and market is not climactic (and not 2nd leg trap) we are now always-in-long. There is a good chance you make money if you buy at the market for a measured move. Of course risk is high (to the bottom of the swing), so have to adjust size accordingly. Harder to do with smaller ES accounts, easier if trading large ES accounts or SPY.
Trading: nq, es, Hype cool runner Ipo's months out short into lockup expirations. UVXY, TSLA options
Posts: 24 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 60
"With all due respect. The 10,000 hour to master a craft does definitely NOT apply in learning to trade. You can maybe double or triple that amount and still no guarantees"
I totally agree. Going on 20 years of online trading and learning every day. Law of biology species survival.."observe, adapt, change ( evolve) or perish. Same is true w traders. It all takes time.