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I think that many trade management techniques can work for this style of trading. One detail I've found to be true in my research is that gain per day steadily declines post breakout. This means that if there were theoretically unlimited trade setups the highest returns would be realized by taking profits quickly and reinvesting into the next breakout. Another fact is that the major gains from a trend-following strategy are realized on the infrequent occasion that a major trend is caught and ridden until termination. To reconcile these two facts I've decided to do an unscientific blend of both approaches.
I use Median Daily Range instead of Average Daily Range because median, being less sensitive to outliers, strikes me as a more true measure of 'normal' volatility for a security. My initial stop is almost always less than 2 MDR and usually less than 1 MDR. In my testing I've found a sell target between 2-3 MDR to yield optimal stats all things considered.
How much of my position I sell into strength vs. trail depends on a multitude of factors that I've found to influence trade outcome. These include company age, strength of initial breakout, and broad market trend phase. In the case of ZIM:
-It is a young company (check in the box for trailing more)
-It had a strong breakout (check in the box for trailing more)
-The broad market is likely in the early stages of a bull market (check in the box for trailing more)
For these reasons I sold only 1/3 of my position.
Glad you find this thread helpful! I, like you, am nothing more than a humble student of the markets.
I just nailed down a 4-6 week gig playing upright bass for a local theatre companies summer production of Gershwin Cabaret! Kudos to you if you were able to make a living as a musician - that is a damn hard way to pay the bills! I hope the music scene comes back where you are!
I tend to be a more all in all out type of trader. I set a stop based on price action. Could be swing low or low of the breakout day.
I then adjust my trailing stop as the trade progresses. I might us a trend line or a moving average. The longer I'm in a trade the more room I tend to give the position. I tend to leave quite a bit on the table so I'm looking for ideas how to be a little more efficient.
I was using Weinstein's 30 week but have recently changed to a 50 day for my longer term holds. I traded BHC on the Canadian market and the 50 ma cross took me out this week.
"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Great to hear about your gig. Cabaret is a fun show to play. I’ve done quite a bit of theatre stuff in the last 10-15 years.
You must not be form Ontario, Canada because we just got hit with another lockdown. Oh well. I’ve resigned myself to thinking that this summer will be a write off and if gigs materialize then that’s just a plus. In the meantime I’m putting my time into learning more about trading, building my studio, spending time with my kids and trying to stay positive.
This makes a lot of sense and will result in better stats at the individual trade level I believe. Another great example of ways to reduce time spent in front of the computer. Longer trade durations, simpler trade management practices.
Oh man I'm sorry to hear that. It sounds like you have a good attitude though!
Here in New York (state not city) the summer is looking very promising! It's been a long time since I've played a gig - been trying to get my chops back on upright in preparation for this show and my body can feel it!
All good. I can only control things I can control. So good to hear about NY state. And good luck to your fingers. Start building up those calluses again. Lol.
Anyway, sorry to gum up your trading journal with this covid/music stuff. Back to trading
How much weight to do place on previous resistance. I think in Weinstein’s book he mentions that as long as there’s no previous resistance 2 years back then that’s better. Just wondering what your take on that is.