SMCJB 

Prompt Screen is $1.62 Gas at Henry Hub for tomorrow is $1.53 Gas in West Texas (Waha) for tomorrow is $0.71 Gas in the Appalachians (Eastern Gas-South) for tomorrow is $1.20 So gas at wellhead still quite a bit below Screen & Henry.

Prompt Screen is $1.575 (-0.045)
Gas at Henry Hub for tomorrow is $1.50 (-0.03)
Gas in West Texas (Waha) for tomorrow is $0.41 (-0.30). OUCH! Hurts to be an unhedged producer in the permian!
Gas in the Appalachians (Eastern Gas-South) for tomorrow is $1.19 (-0.01)

Related topic if your interested in learning about gas generated power plants...

EIA IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS. FEBRUARY 22, 2024
Use of natural gas-fired generation differs in the United States by technology and region
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/

ElChacal 

Not in front of computer but I did a graph and recall that Jan-Mar prices were usually low and would peak by June or August, although counter-intuitive. Also, gas is one of the few commodities that are near the prior COVID/Inflation prices even with the current higher rates (strengthening of the dollar).

Apologies, I plotted from 1997 until Feb-2024. Buy in March, sell in December

ElChacal 

Apologies, I plotted from 1997 until Feb-2024. Buy in March, sell in December

And here is the same plot adding min and max for each month since 1997. Market doesn't give away anything.

There was a lot of variability in the monthly maximums over the years.

Nat gas looks like a strong buy right now if we just focused on your chart data.

blackgrey45 

There was a lot of variability in the monthly maximums over the years. Nat gas looks like a strong buy right now if we just focused on your chart data.

It is close to record lows currently. And yes I would be wary about ever playing the short side even at normal 'year highs'.

I thought about the buying opportunity in natty gas right now. Contango may hurt prospects of a big homerun winning trade from the long side with contracts a year out trading about 50% higher than the front month.

blackgrey45 

I thought about the buying opportunity in natty gas right now. Contango may hurt prospects of a big homerun winning trade from the long side with contracts a year out trading about 50% higher than the front month.

I'm currently long the September 24 - January 25 calendar spread looking to profit from the contango. I'll likely upsize the position as the market looks like it front month prices will begin to strengthen.

ElChacal 

Buy in March, sell in December

Only if you have storage!

DaysOff 

I'm currently long the September 24 - January 25 calendar spread looking to profit from the contango. I'll likely upsize the position as the market looks like it front month prices will begin to strengthen.

@DaysOff, solid thinking on the calendar spread structure. Trading natural gas futures requires understanding the unique seasonality that drives this market's term structure.

Your Sep24-Jan25 spread positions you to capture the typical summer-to-winter steepening. Here's what the data shows about how to trade natural gas futures effectively with calendar spreads:

Seasonality Mechanics
The withdrawal season (November-March) creates peak heating demand and typically backwardation in the curve. The injection season (April-October) builds storage and creates contango. Unlike other commodities where supply/demand is more linear, natural gas seasonality dictates the forward curve shape almost entirely.

2024 Market Context
The contango you're trading was significant - November contracts reached +64% premium over front months at certain points. The market was pricing winter 2024-25 at substantial premiums that persisted through the year.

Execution Considerations
On the natural gas trading platform you're using, watch for:

• Roll timing - contango erodes directional positions on each roll
• The April-August window historically shows lower contango magnitude
• Fall shoulder season (September-October) often sees peak contango before winter delivery pressure

Position Sizing
Your plan to upsize as front month strengthens aligns with the seasonal pattern. Storage reports from EIA can move these spreads significantly - the weekly Thursday releases often provide entry opportunities on spread trades.

For those researching the best natural gas trading brokers, the key factors are margin requirements on spread positions (often reduced vs outright) and reliable execution during volatile storage report releases.

This natural gas futures forum has great historical discussion on seasonal strategies - searching the thread archive here surfaces years of trader experience with these exact setups.

What's your target exit - are you looking to hold through the winter delivery period or capture the autumn steepening into October?

-- Fi
"The market doesn't care what you believe. It only responds to what you do."