HumbleTrader 

Pretty loss I didn't have to wait for too long to create a pretty loss. I executed my bearish bias really well. i.e Quite aggressive but as per my plan. Reached my max size as I saw more weakness without adding to a loser. I was targeting 20 DMA below 650 and anticipating more. Price seemed to agree with me (though volume was hesitant) but then buyers stepped in and a V reversal happened. Usually I freeze up, like a deer caught in headlights. Not this time. I exited gracefully and accepted a small loss. Yes, I gave up paper profit but the pain was minimal as my plan was to grab at least 3 times of that amount. Though I can grab small profits to boost my ego & cushion my P&L (I might do soon), I want to get comfortable with losing paper profits first. Pain of loss and the pain of losing paper profits are the 2 major obstacles for retail traders and my goal is to overcome those first. I'm getting there but it's painfully slow

I like that .. pretty loss haha smart

My trophy trade

I achieved a great milestone today and it has been a tough nut to crack, for a while. It's not monetary but rather execution related.

Buying a market which 'gap'd up significantly has been a huge challenge for me. Despite my statistics giving bullish signals, I often hesitate or wouldn't buy at all @ the open. To add insult to injury, I would buy deep pullbacks, only to see the pullbacks getting deeper and deeper and eventually reversing the bull trend completely.

Today, I decided to go long @ DAX @ RTH open, after a big gap up, against all my 'rational' instincts. I also resolved to NOT buy any pullbacks. Infact, I had plans to get out if PB becomes >20 points. Though there is a small retrace after I entered, this beauty never looked back and marched upto my initial target 550. When price stalled @ 540, it was sooo tempting to take my profit and run but I decided to live by my 'exit rule'. That is to get out, ONLY after seeing a pullback and then use the next bounce to go flat. i.e Market telling me exit location and it was a flawless execution. My only gripe is not scaling up but a man can only learn one thing at a time


1

Dabbling with Dow

Since one of my accountability partner is trading DOW, I decided to give it a try today. I have traded MYM and DIA in the past and I did like them. The mental math was lot easier with full points rather than ES 0.25 ticks.

Another good day and I am definitely trading more and more like how I always wanted to trade. By focusing on 1 change at a time, I feel like I'm internalizing them well and it's easier to integrate them. i.e Not adding to losers, aggressively adding to winner, using hard stops, developing patience for targets to be hit, conviction in signals etc.

One area where I perennially struggled was 'switching my bias'. I always wanted to switch my bias at the drop of a hat if there is new evidence. I believe it's one of the essential quality of a successful trader and I read an interesting story about Paul Tudor Jones demonstrating this on the trading floor. Today, I managed to take some baby steps towards that.

My short bias was executed well @ RTH gap down move with shorting and then I added as well. However, as soon as I saw footprint evidence of big size buyers, I covered it and took a small loss. Though price drifted down again, I observed big size buyers and hence quickly reversed to long. Though price didn't move up quickly, the indicators became more bullish and hence I scaled in aggressively.

I had clear targets i.e IB high and Y-C. More importantly 'HARD STOPS' with good risk reward ratio. I scaled in at logical location and scale out twice. I'm still long 1 contract and hoping to add more but price is stubborn without any pullback so far. Let's see.

YM

Now it's gap down in Nikkei.

It's just the opposite of gap up DAX yesterday. I no longer care what the news is. Yen is weaker, apparently. I only care about other players' response to the news. I try to think in terms of minimax concept from game theory.

Shorting a big gap down market is not easy. However, it's definitely lot easier for me than buying gap up. Hence, I was able to scale up pretty quickly and consistently. The main challenge is deciding on targets. Since meat of the move already happened during ETH, it's hard to assess. Volume often gives good clues and it was low today in Nikkei. Hence, my targets became conservative and I targeted Y-L. Covered 3/4 and still keeping the last lot. Though I could go flat, I want to reinforce the behavior of closing my final position ONLY after seeing confirmation of end of trend. It means giving up paper profit and that's the point.




NK

Even petite winners can be pretty

My bullish bias with DAX was executed as per my plan. I added soon after RTH as Dax zoomed up with strength. I scale in again @ a location unimaginable even few weeks ago. Instead of letting it run till the end of the day, I booked partial profits with some overextended move. I bought back again during the pullback. Everything looks good far for my long.

Then price became rangebound. My hopes of a new HOD became slim as price started making lower high and lower lows. I quickly adapted to the NEW reality. I got out of my 2nd position for a small profit and my final position AFTER the confirmation of trend change. I could have gotten a bigger profit by getting out during double top but my focus is currently on improving discipline. That means giving up paper profit for potential bigger profit. I think I like the looks of this winner, albeit it's petite size.

I even have the audacity to short Dax now despite its lower probability based on historical data. That's because I'm currently forcing myself to take ALL the EMA crossover signal my system is generating to gather data.


Dax

YM lucky streak continues

My long bias worked very well but it was NOT an easy ride. In fact, after reaching my max size of 4 and felt a bit cocky, YM taught me a lesson. I was 'shaken but not stirred' with the deep pullback to vwap. I got rid of 3/4 contracts, in order to reduce the risk. I kept 1 long as my bullish bias persisted. Once we began to resume the bullish trend, I had ZERO hesitation in buying again and patiently held well above Y-high. That's the logical next step after weak long were shaken off.

Scaling out was a bit messy though. My 1st scale out was perfect. My 2nd and 3rd orders, based on ATR, were not filled. Hence I scaled down my expectations and became flat during next lower high (after buying 1 more for deep discount).

Since last week, my trading has been interesting. Things seem to fall into place and it's a bit scary actually. This is a VERY different method of trading from my usual 'one shot one kill' strategy. It feels like 'professional' way of doing business and I'm loving it. However, I'm mindful of appearing over exicited or arrogant. There is also a risk of overloading my journal with my recent multi instrument trading with Dax, YM, Nikkei etc. Hence, I may dial it down unless it's useful for others.


y

HumbleTrader 

YM lucky streak continues My long bias worked very well but it was NOT an easy ride. In fact, after reaching my max size of 4 and felt a bit cocky, YM taught me a lesson. I was 'shaken but not stirred' with the deep pullback to vwap. I got rid of 3/4 contracts, in order to reduce the risk. I kept 1 long as my bullish bias persisted. Once we began to resume the bullish trend, I had ZERO hesitation in buying again and patiently held well above Y-high. That's the logical next step after weak long were shaken off. Scaling out was a bit messy though. My 1st scale out was perfect. My 2nd and 3rd orders, based on ATR, were not filled. Hence I scaled down my expectations and became flat during next lower high (after buying 1 more for deep discount). Since last week, my trading has been interesting. Things seem to fall into place and it's a bit scary actually. This is a VERY different method of trading from my usual 'one shot one kill' strategy. It feels like 'professional' way of doing business and I'm loving it. However, I'm mindful of appearing over exicited or arrogant. There is also a risk of overloading my journal with my recent multi instrument trading with Dax, YM, Nikkei etc. Hence, I may dial it down unless it's useful for others.

Pretty sure I speak for the herd when I say it's great to see anyone doing well and seeing how the do it and what they are learning. I've gotten my ass handed to me for a variety of reasons this week and it makes me feel better seeing you have been doing well.
Having said that...one of the lessons that many have written about is getting cocky/arrogant with success...the market always humbles us...might as well stay that way to start (and keep the money).
Well done,
Craig

HumbleTrader 

I'm mindful of appearing over exicited or arrogant. There is also a risk of overloading my journal with my recent multi instrument trading with Dax, YM, Nikkei etc. Hence, I may dial it down unless it's useful for others.

Nah, nobody thinks you're being arrogant bro. As BE said, good traders wants to see others doing well because that's what they're aspiring to do themselves. I thoroughly enjoyed your last few posts and personally I love the variety of instruments. You have been in tune with the market and it is great to see!

Thanks for your encouraging words @Blue Eagle and @josh.

I'm just beginning to see consistent results and definitely don't consider myself successful at all. I'm just stunned that success in trading can be so easy if we get few ingredients correct. I guess David Paul is right in saying 'a good trader is just 8 to 13 trades away from a successful trader'.

The beauty of the market is it has zillions of ways to make us fell humble. I started off as 'Narcissus' in this forum and then changed to HumbleTrader but needed 7 years of teaching for that. Currently I feel like a new avatar of 'insiginificant Trader' but yet unique and special.

I decided to skip Nikkei today to sleep in. I have been waking before 5 AM to trade it and I'm not a morning person

DAX seemed to have a clean setup for long. I bought the pullback during a bullish trend and felt 'safe'. However, its failure to make a new high was the 1st warning sign. Hence, I did NOT scale. PB became deeper and I decided to bail out for 30 pts loss. I was actually proud of 2 things. First for not adding to a losing trade and interestingly I was not even tempted. Secondly, I had a clear exit criteria and respected the trend change. Since it's 1/4 of my usual size, I don't have to use hard stops and can use counter bounce to bail out at better price and that's what I did.

I did NOT want to short this market as stats were very bullish. Hence I waited for reversal of trend, which happened much sooner than I anticipated. My second attempt at long was at a scary place. I wouldn't have even dreamt of doing this, just a few short weeks ago. Buying a strong momentum has a big advantage of keeping your stop loss really tight. In fact, I had a hard stop 4 points below my entry and grabbed 50 pts. One good thing I noticed was I didn't want to stop at +30 pts to 'get breakeven'. I wanted to take what the market was willing to give me.

I did consider my usual strategy of adding to my winners and letting this ride longer but the swings were too wild. Then I realized that today is month end. Shabby prep! Hence decided to call it a day and wait for US markets to open.


D