we all know from the last couple decades not to fight the fed

if anything there is always a way to prop up the market

especially at critical levels where support would break

//

from ewj or the nikkei a previous rout could be converted

after what looks to be a stick save of some sort

nikkei is a bit precarious but could be saved

//

while spy has room to dip and bounce

others like nvda and semis are closer to support tests

has defended pretty well post earnings garnering interest

//

semis espcially via smh and soxx are close to critical even

intc is getting some help domestically and focus is there

to promote assets in global competition is possible

//

until the ball really drops there is room to stimulate

once started, the stimulus would need to defend

not constantly but at adequate periods of time

//

if not there is a perception that there are not enough resources

and that is actually a pretty bad signal in itself

with no real protection in place to deal

and just like that with 50 we take the highs higher not to pump

but to defend crucial areas for lagging sectors and the global market

bonds did get ahead and is now correcting but kicking the can further

//

uncertain is whether carries would fill back in as usd/jpy is still waning

the bank of japan did mention adjusting as the market recovered properly

the continuation breakout push indexes toward resistance and sell signals tbd

//

again all dependent on the trajectory and defensive offering from rates

fortunately the scenario offered support vs not enough action / panic

the highs from this quarter and the dot plot next quarter will detail

quick note that qqq stalled at the previous level

spy did breach but may need to pull back to gain

since we did start on a positive day and extended

//

support should be there since dip buyers now waiting

as dollar is still fading and those looking to vest further

would not be in a hurry since bonds, carry, need more time

bleh adjusting my stuff for quad witching

fdx did not develop support and was at high range

yday we had an extension that over reached so we pull back

//

prev breakout resistance is support and will need to hold

especially in light of both easing and elections

otherwise the mid-term support level breaks

//

then the holiday season will suck

looking on the short term and daily into next

there is some room to test support areas below

even a return pre-fomc to continue for accumulation

//

that would be ideal for dip buyers though unnecessary

so onto next is a slight pickup with a dip trend ongoing

qqq has less reason to revisit pre-fomc is truly bullish

//

so some smallish dipping in general with indexes and bonds

though this week showed with fomc that support is respected

and waiting for qqq to break through resistance as well

//

next week there is gdp data and the next month another nfp

the rba releases and previously uk held so strength vs usd

crypto seems to be ok and holding, though energy fizzled

china stimulus plans to jump in and coordinate

seems to have pumped into short term highs

bonds are acting in the opposite matter

bit of a psych out going on with some fomo

indeed necessary because without propping

semis would be in a worse place so stick saved

//

bonds less so vs indexes and might need to re-eval

china did pull back after less than expected stimmys

amd and nvda seem okay with semis in general

energy does echo some of the dipping mental

//

some lower risk would take off some

while higher risk is waiting for that extension

just on the daily there has been some resistance

//

best case might be to have a larger dip for more entries

both indexes and vol went higher though one outside

and energy keeps dipping while china tries to stim

spy and qqq follow but not dia without semis

//

a bit of the inevitable

slim pickings without piling into extensions

why iwm and fxi maybe dia are of interest

energy weakness alongside rates eom