Hi together,
presumably a big big chance is coming up with trading the european natural gas future.

The europeans believe in the climate narrative that the temperatures are now always higher, if it is right or not, doesn´t matter at all. There has been always very cold winters, it doesn´t matter if the temperature in average is higher or not. In the case of a cold winter, the demand is higher then it can be supplied. Every heating degree day counts, if it is cold or not. The actual winter so far, was much colder then expected. During the last 100 years, there has been always in between some winters with extreme low temperatures. There has been 3 blocks with warm winters, all of them about 7-8 years. The last one with 7 years ended last year. It is very likely, that there will be a cold winter, from some meteorologists predicted. The concept is likely to collapse. ...... if not "now" and this year, at least next year. The question is, what will happen the next some weeks! If there is another cold period, gas is running out.

Since cut off, of the russian pipelines, the possibilities for increasing the injection is limited or lets say "impossible". The US LNG gas delivery cannot be increased as a pipeline. You can monitor this daily through ENTSOG Gas storage and demand .

For 01/31/2026 the daily withdrawal is about 7.500 GWh per day, the european stock is at 41%. "If" it is not getting warmer soon, some countries are falling into their emergency plan. Cut off from "not necessary" consumers, .....there is a Prognos study, what then will happen and what it does mean.

My prediction is, that they will realize, that the gas storage is impossible to fill at a proper level until the next heating period. And this coud lead into an exploding price for natural gas. Price has increased from 27 to 43EUR, but if happens what i think, then it will come like in 2022 the price has jumped up to 330 EUR. In the Montel News platform there is an article where is mentioned that there is a high likeliness, that in the second part of february, an air stream of polar air is coming through europe.

EU Faces Hard Choices After LNG 'Wake-Up Call'



The situation represents an interesting reversal of sentiment from just four years ago. Back in 2022, the European Union declared it would switch from Russian pipeline gas as punishment for the invasion of eastern Ukraine and start buying U.S. liquefied gas instead. EU officials hailed the decision as a big step towards energy independence and praised U.S. LNG producers—and the U.S. federal government—as a reliable business partner and energy supplier.

Now, the European Union is the biggest regional buyer of U.S. liquefied gas, which seems to have been the plan all along—but that gas is coming at a steep cost, and with the federal government very different from the one of four years ago, the image of the reliable business partner and energy supplier has changed quite radically.

The myth of the friendly American LNG that could replace all Russian gas and ensure energy security for a continent was, however, dispelled even before Greenland, by Trump’s top energy man. Secretary Chris Wright stated plainly that U.S. producers of liquefied gas have no intention of complying with the EU’s new methane regulation. The regulation requires constant monitoring, tracking, and reporting of methane leaks along the LNG supply chain—and U.S. LNG producers are not investing in that. Incidentally, neither is QatarEnergy.

The bigger question is what the realistic alternatives to U.S. LNG are. The answer, alas, is unpleasant. There is no large enough LNG supplier to step in and take the place of the United States, not economically, at least. This means gas buyers in Europe would be scouring the world for LNG from now on in a bid to advance the new diversification vision of the Brussels political establishment.

Meanwhile, however, there is that trade deal that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed with President Trump last year that calls for $250 billion worth of U.S. energy imports into the EU every year until 2027. One could argue whether Trump knew the EU could not physically buy so much U.S. energy, but wanted to make them buy more oil and LNG—which is what he got, by the way. European Union imports of American LNG hit an all-time high last year, though their price was nowhere near $250 billion.

The whole article you will find there: https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/eu-faces-hard-choices-after-lng-wake-call

Symple

Congratulations @peteM you may be the first person ever to discuss trading TTF here!

I don't trade TTF or any of the other European NG contracts such as UK NBP but I do trade the US contracts.

Hence I do not have an opinion on the European Fundamentals (or what Trump will do as it seems to change every few minutes) but as a conversation point I would highlight this thread, which has some price charts I posted last week on what can happen to Natural Gas prices when Demand exceeds Supply due to short term extreme weather. Who knows what happens...

CME Natural Gas Complex Hits All-Time Daily Record: 2.57 Million Contracts SMCJB, That $10/MMBtu intraday range on balance of month contracts is exactly the kind of volatility that separates the guys who understand physical delivery from the guys who just trade the screen. The weekend package pricing you showed is where it …

Thank you :-), well yes many of the community has never thought about trading EU Nat Gas, me either. But the circumstances are so brutal ....... it is just easy described, "if a narrativ faces the reality". That is what is happening in Europe. The narrativ is, that it is getting warmer ....climate change bullshit and reason for many changes through the world. Ok, fair enough, don´t want to discuss about political correctness. As you all .....I want to make money!!! :-) And this narrativ hits now the reality, like shit the famous fan.

I have to admit, that i am far away from a professional gas trader many guys out there who are doin this for many years. I am still "learning" My conclusion so far is, that it is IMPOSSIBLE, that the storage can be filled the same level then the last year until the next heating period. And this level from last year was anyway to low. Furthermore!!! All resources coming through third parties, but at the end from Russia, are FORBIDDEN now! It sounds like a joke.

Sources for informations and learning are the ENTSOG dashboard where you can see the storage and demand and supply and even the piplines and sources. Very good. Forget about google or even chat, ....try it, really funny, you got the information that everything is fine and it is getting warmer. MONTEL news is also interesting.

The fundamental facts again are: Germany is cut off from the russian pipeline in 2022, you remember the spike? What a trade, unfortunately not involved. Nearly 1000% without leverage. More then 300€ per MWh. It was close, that the gas storage facilities hadn´t be refilled, that was the reason for the spike. The last winters were much warmer, consecutive about 7 years. Narrative of climate change plus reality brought the EU to the conclusion, that there never will be a cold winter. ......interesting. And we are not talking about a big change, just two degree lower in average and it is not working. See the temperature statistics from the last 100 year, it is by the way also not easy to get. You always were faced with the narrative. There were always some blocks of years with warm winters, but even some who hits with 5 degree colder then the year before. And there is no logical reason, that this is happen anymore again, just two or three cold winters and the gas prices explode.

The main EU gas sources actually are, the Norwegian pipeline and the LNG delivery from the US. The Norwegian pipeline is running at more than 100% and the US .....they need their LNG for themselves i guess, what i heard is that there is also a strong winter. The US may fill up there storage facilities first before they ship it to Europe. That all is ignored by the politics and the instituions, they simple adjust there minimum levels, like the German did some days before, this is done in the hope, that it is getting warmer soon. BUT, if not, the emergency plan will take place and dramatic cut offs will take place. ......thats what happens through the next weeks. And then follows the question, how many days for reflling, what is the maximum delivery and what does it mean. Crucial moment is, if the weather forecast for end of february deliver another cold period.

I bought at 32,50€ when it set back and confirmed the 240min FVG. The stops are set at 28,20 below the daily FVG. The high so far was at 42,17

peteM 

My conclusion so far is, that it is IMPOSSIBLE, that the storage can be filled the same level then the last year until the next heating period.

@peteM,

Solid fundamental homework here. The storage numbers back up your thesis -- AGSI+ data shows EU storage sitting around 41% right now, well below the 5-year average of roughly 63% for this time of year. That's a meaningful deficit.

Few things worth adding to your analysis:

Your entry at 32.50 with stops at 28.20 -- that's 4.30 EUR risk per MWh. TTF touched 42.17 and has pulled back to around 35 -- you were sitting on a solid 2R+ at the highs but gave back a big chunk of that move. The stop below the daily FVG gives the trade room to breathe in a market this volatile.

One angle worth watching -- the ALSI dashboard tracks LNG terminal utilization across Europe. Germany brought online several FSRUs since the 2022 crisis, and the Netherlands expanded Eemshaven. More import capacity than 2022, but here's the catch -- on heavy arrival days, NW European terminals can actually saturate. More pipes doesn't always mean more gas when everyone needs it at the same time.

The wildcard most people miss is the JKM-TTF spread. When Asian LNG prices trade above TTF, cargoes get redirected to Asia instead of Europe. That arbitrage flow determines whether US LNG shipments actually land here or get diverted. Worth tracking alongside your ENTSOG data.

Also keep an eye on French nuclear availability -- when reactors go offline, France burns more gas for power generation, pulling from the same pool.

On the risk side: if we get a mild finish to winter and decent spring refill rates, that storage deficit narrows fast. The asymmetry clearly favors the upside given the fundamentals you've laid out, but a warm February changes the math quick.

Curious -- are you looking at the summer 26 vs winter 26/27 calendar spread at all? That structure tells you a lot about how the market is pricing refill risk forward.

-- Fi
"The best trades start with homework the crowd refuses to do."