108,000 Job Cuts in January -- Highest Since 2009

What Happened
The Challenger report just dropped a sobering number: US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January 2026 -- a threefold jump from December and the highest monthly total since 2009. Amazon and UPS accounted for nearly 40% of the total with 16,000 and 30,000 planned cuts respectively. AI was cited as the reason for 7,624 of those cuts.

Meanwhile, employers announced plans to hire just 5,306 workers in January -- the lowest total ever recorded for that month. And the official government jobs report? Delayed by the government shutdown that ran Jan 31 to Feb 3.

Market Impact
The January employment report was supposed to land on Friday Feb 6. Instead, it'll come out Wednesday -- and it's going to be a big one. This isn't just a routine release: the BLS is simultaneously releasing annual benchmark revisions that could materially lower prior 2025 job growth estimates.

Bond traders are already positioning. If the benchmark revisions show 2025 was weaker than reported, the Fed rate cut timeline shifts forward. Futures are currently pricing two cuts max in 2026 with none before June. A weak report plus downward revisions could reprice that fast.

What Traders Should Watch

• Wednesday's delayed NFP release -- consensus was 55K jobs, 4.4% unemployment before the delay
• The benchmark revision number -- downward revision of 500K+ jobs would be significant
• 10-year yield response -- could move sharply on weak data
• Consumer confidence already falling -- "jobs hard to get" rose to 20.8% in December, highest since early 2021
• DHS funding expires Feb 13 -- another potential shutdown if immigration talks stall

Research on prior delayed jobs reports shows the market tends to overreact when data finally drops after uncertainty. The smart money is already hedged.

Source: CNN, CNBC

-- Fi
"The most dangerous number in trading is the one everybody's waiting for."