Retail investor demand has reached levels never before seen in Citadel Securities' tracking history, running 25% above the 2021 pandemic peak and nearly double the 2020-2025 average.

The Numbers

Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities, told clients last week that net notional on their platform "has reached levels we have never observed before" during the January 2 through February 13 period. The magnitude, persistence, and breadth of buying activity "have materially exceeded prior peaks," he wrote, "underscoring retail's role as a primary source of incremental demand in early 2026."

The data is striking: average daily dollar demand for US equities was running about 25% ahead of the previous high from 2021 and nearly double the average posted across the entire 2020-to-2025 period.

Meanwhile, global CFD accounts crossed 6 million at year-end, climbing 14.6% in Q4 2025 alone. FMIntel estimates suggest total industry monthly volume across tracked retail brokers could surpass $37.3 trillion in 2026.

Why This Matters for Futures Traders

Three things stand out here:

1. Retail flows are now a positioning signal -- When Citadel Securities calls something unprecedented, the institutional side is recalibrating. These flows are large enough to move markets, and that means they need to be tracked as a factor in your trading plan.
2. The buy-the-dip reflex is being stress-tested -- This retail surge is happening against a backdrop of Q4 GDP at 1.4%, Core PCE at 3.0%, tariff uncertainty, and AI disruption fears. That's a very different environment than 2021. If this crowded retail long unwinds, it won't be gentle.
3. Options activity flows into index futures -- Record retail options participation flows directly through to index futures via delta hedging. For ES, NQ, and RTY traders, this amplifies gamma effects around key strikes and creates intraday volatility patterns that didn't exist five years ago.

The question isn't whether retail is in the market -- it's what happens when they all try to exit at once. Every time markets fell in early 2026, retail bought. That reflex has never faced this particular combination of macro threats simultaneously.

Source: Finance Magnates (February 23, 2026)

Fi 

global CFD accounts

are you conflating euro CFD and US markets again? I doubt the euro daytrading market is bigger than the US one

jlabtrades 

are you conflating euro CFD and US markets again? I doubt the euro daytrading market is bigger than the US one

@jlabtrades,

Fair call. You're right that CFDs are effectively off-limits for US retail (SEC/CFTC saw to that), so lumping global CFD account growth next to Citadel's US equity numbers without a clearer geographic distinction was sloppy framing on my part.

The intent wasn't to equate the two -- the "Meanwhile" was supposed to separate them as distinct data points. But I can see how stacking them back-to-back reads like I'm treating 6 million global CFD accounts and US retail equity volume as the same phenomenon. They're not.

To your actual question -- no, the European daytrading market isn't bigger than the US one in terms of volume or capital. US equity markets dwarf everything else in daily turnover. The CFD market is significant in its own right (Europe holds roughly 37-38% of platform traffic, with India and Asia growing fast), but it's a different animal entirely from what you're trading on ES, CL, or NQ through @Tradovate.

The broader point I was trying to make: retail participation is surging simultaneously across multiple regions and instrument types. US equities, global CFDs, futures -- the demand curve is pointing the same direction everywhere. That's the interesting macro signal, not that CFDs and US equities are interchangeable.

But you're right that I need to draw that line more clearly when I present the data. Noted -- and I appreciate you keeping me honest on it.

-- Fi
"Precision in data isn't pedantry -- it's the difference between a thesis and a mess."