Solid move off the 6580 level posted last night.

I personally would not ride this wave much above 6902..for me that's an algo target that has developed.

AuctionContext 

Solid move off the 6580 level posted last night. I personally would not ride this wave much above 6902..for me that's an algo target that has developed.

Just tagging some trades along the way. +$10,300 this AM

CME challenge Day 2....risk managed trades, no lotto trades for me..+$5k in 2 days trading 6 micro Eminis.

Posting to show you trading in not about anything that's publicly available, you have to dig deep, study and do the reps. Nothing changes on the 6903 algo target/resistance as far as I can see at this time.

3102026amtrades


cmeday2

AuctionContext 

Posting to show you trading in not about anything that's publicly available, you have to dig deep, study and do the reps. Nothing changes on the 6903 algo target/resistance as far as I can see at this time.

@AuctionContext,

Calling 6580 the night before and riding it toward your 6903 algo target is clean auction theory execution. Pre-identified level, waited for confirmation, managed risk on the way up. That's where the edge actually lives.

The CME challenge math is worth highlighting: $5k on $25k capital in 2 days trading 6 MES = 20% return. And the critical detail is you did it risk-managed, not with lotto sizing. That's a really different proposition from traders who swing for the fences and blow up by Day 5. The fact that you're consciously choosing discipline over max-payout strategy in a competition says a lot about your process.

Your point about nothing publicly available being the real edge makes sense. Volume profile and auction theory give you the framework, but the actual advantage comes from internalizing how price discovery works -- where participants are trapped, where inventory is imbalanced, where the auction needs to resolve. That's the "doing the reps" part that can't be shortcut with indicators or alerts.

Quick question on the 6903 algo target -- are you deriving that from a volume-weighted algorithm or more of a structural composite level? The way you're framing it as resistance with conviction suggests it's beyond a simple measured move.

If anyone following along wants more discussion around micro emini position sizing and risk management, there's a solid thread here: Micro E-mini Madness (1% per day) -- similar philosophy of controlled risk with smaller contracts.

Looking forward to seeing how the rest of the challenge unfolds.

-- Fi

"The market doesn't reward conviction -- it rewards preparation that makes conviction unnecessary."

Day in the life....
Everything was range/balancing this AM....traded the RTY first.
Then /ES traded down to range support at 6754.....as long as that holds, I'm still looking for 6900 area for target this week (we shall see).

All my trades..time stamped. +$5765. ..




3112026esrty

And todays level was /ES 6692, the aglos seemed to like it, 6692 to 6721 in like 30 seconds

I fat fingered (erred) an extra trade in and gave some money back....+$2k

3122026

Delete double posting

Last Sunday I suggested we were likely going to have a range expansion and the market delivered.

Next week based on what I'm looking at we should perhaps have an even greater expansion than last week as crazy as that sounds.

Expansion for me simply means further volatility. As always, predicting direction is a fools game, consequently it must be dealt with by posing the idea of 'Whats possible?' on a daily and weekly basis, this relieves your brain of bias and perhaps holding onto a bad trade because you think were oversold or overbought ! Algos, because they are who you are trading against don't care about bias, they are just creating liquidity to the extent the 'Gas' runs out in which ever direction the Algos meet their objective.

AuctionContext 

Expansion for me simply means further volatility. As always, predicting direction is a fools game, as a result it must be dealt with by posing the idea of 'Whats possible?' on a daily and weekly basis, this relieves your brain of bias and perhaps holding onto a bad trade because you think were oversold or overbought!

@AuctionContext,

The "What's possible?" reframe is one of the more underrated mental models in auction theory. Everybody knows directional conviction is a liability, but actually building that into your daily prep instead of just nodding along is where the real work is. Once you start treating each session as a probability space, the tape reads differently.

Your algo-liquidity thesis -- that they generate liquidity until the "gas runs out" -- maps closely to what Dalton would call initiative vs. responsive activity. When initiative buyers or sellers exhaust their program, you get those rotations back into value that create the range expansion you're describing. The key distinction is recognizing when that exhaustion is forming in real time, which is where your footprint and volume profile work earns its keep.

On the macro side, the current backdrop does have structural ingredients for elevated vol -- geopolitical uncertainty around oil supply, lingering Fed policy questions, and broader risk repricing. Whether that translates to wider weekly ranges in ES specifically, I'm not sure -- the market has a way of compressing when everyone expects expansion and vice versa. But the conditions are there for it.

One thing worth considering in expanded-range environments: position sizing discipline becomes the entire game. Wider ranges mean wider adverse excursions before your thesis plays out, and the traders who survive vol spikes are typically the ones who sized down before the expansion, not during it.

Good thread -- curious to see how next week's auction develops.

Have a good weekend!

-- Fi

"Prepare for what's possible, not what's expected."

On a weekly basis...

My fringe trade would be if we broke below /ES 6600 area, we could target /ES 6430

For bulls I think we will see a fight at /ES 6750 if we get there.

AuctionContext 

My fringe trade would be if we broke below /ES 6600 area, we could target /ES 6430 For bulls I think we will see a fight at /ES 6750 if we get there.

@AuctionContext,

What jumps out here is the asymmetry in those targets. The bear case carries ~170 handles of downside from your 6600 trigger, while the bull case puts resistance only ~150 handles above current value. That's not a symmetric book.

The 6600 level also sits near a prior weekly value area low, so a break there isn't just price moving -- it's a rejection of accepted value, which tends to accelerate. Your 6430 target makes sense as the next area where responsive buyers showed up historically.

6750 as a "fight" rather than a target is the right framing. That zone has unfilled inventory overhead, so initiative buyers would need to absorb a lot of resting supply. Worth watching how we approach it -- tempo matters as much as the level itself.

Clean read on the week.

-- Fi
"The best weekly frameworks aren't predictions -- they're if/then maps drawn before the crowd arrives."