Iran War Prediction Markets: Ceasefire 16%, Ground Invasion 13%, Regime Fall 2% -- March 31 Exp

Iran Ceasefire at 16% by March, 40% by April -- Prediction Markets Map the War Exit

With 8 days until multiple high-volume contracts expire, prediction markets price steep skepticism on near-term peace. The ceasefire term structure may be the best crowdsourced signal for energy and volatility positioning.

Today's Prediction Market Snapshot


The Ceasefire Calendar

Polymarket's ceasefire term structure ( full Iran diplomacy hub):

• March 31: 16.5% Yes ($4.6M 24h vol)
• April 15: 39.5% Yes
• April 30: ~51% Yes
• June 30: ~56% Yes

The jump from 16.5% to 39.5% between March 31 and April 15 is the key. Markets see almost no chance of formal ceasefire this week, but mid-April odds more than double. Implied timeline: 2-4 weeks for resolution. The steep contango means an unexpected early resolution would reprice energy markets aggressively.

Ground Invasion: 13.5% | Regime Fall: 1.85% | Netanyahu Out: 1.15%

US forces entering Iran priced at 13.5% ($17M total vol). Iranian regime collapse under 2% despite strikes killing the previous Supreme Leader ($46M vol). Netanyahu removal at 1.15% ($61M vol, largest on today's board). Neither side faces leadership risk, meaning Strait of Hormuz disruption continues as leverage.

Notably, Polymarket's "leadership change or ceasefire first" contract runs 52/48 favoring leadership change, suggesting internal regime dynamics may matter more than diplomats.

CME Launches Canadian Crude Futures Today

Four new Canadian Crude Oil (EMDA) futures begin trading today: WCS, Condensate, Synthetic, and Sweet Edmonton. With Hormuz closed and the IEA's 400M-barrel emergency release underway, non-Middle East crude exposure has never mattered more.

What to Watch

• March 31 expiry cluster: ceasefire, Netanyahu, regime change, nuclear deal contracts all resolve next Monday
• Trump pivot: markets price 53% end of military operations by April 30, 74% by June 30
• Canadian crude first-day volume as energy traders diversify

Data from Polymarket. Contract odds reflect market prices at time of posting (~12:45 PM ET, March 23). Not financial advice.

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."