Expiration Day: Wall Street Rallies on Peace Hopes While Prediction Markets Price 59pct Chance

Expiration Day: March Contracts Settle as Equities and Prediction Markets Tell Opposite Stories

Today is the biggest settlement day in the history of Iran-related prediction markets. Over $200 million in Polymarket volume across Iranian regime change, US ground invasion, ceasefire, and Netanyahu exit contracts are resolving -- virtually all settling NO. Meanwhile, Wall Street staged a relief rally (Dow +400, Nasdaq +2.1%) on Trump's comments that the "hard part" is done.

The problem? Prediction markets disagree.



1. US Ground Troops in Iran by April 30 -- 59.5% Yes ( Polymarket)

The crowd says it's more likely than not that US ground forces enter Iran within 30 days. Trump told the Financial Times he's weighing seizing Kharg Island -- Iran's main oil export terminal. Iran vowed to set US troops "on fire." The March 31 ground invasion contract (1.45%) settles NO today, but April tells a different story. By December 31, odds reach 70.5%.

2. Crude Oil $105 by March 31 -- 36% Yes ( Polymarket)

WTI touched $106.86 intraday today, which would satisfy this contract's resolution criteria. The 36% price likely reflects stale data -- if the intraday high confirms above $105, this resolves YES, and sellers at 36 cents face a 64-cent loss per contract. Crude's 30-day range: $52.46 to $113.41. The war premium is enormous.

3. Ceasefire Term Structure ( Polymarket)

The ceasefire contract's multi-date structure creates an implied probability curve: April 7: 9% | April 15: 20% | April 30: 36% | May 31: 52% (implied median) | June 30: 65%. Today China and Pakistan proposed a five-point peace plan. Iran called the US plan "excessive and irrational." The 9% odds for ceasefire within one week directly contradict Wall Street's optimism.

The Divergence

Equities: rallying on de-escalation hopes. Prediction markets: 59.5% ground invasion within 30 days, ceasefire this week at 9%. One is wrong. Historically, prediction markets outperform pundit consensus on binary outcomes.

What to Watch: April 7 ceasefire expiry (9%), Kharg Island rhetoric, crude oil close confirmation above $105, and volume migration from expiring March contracts into April.

Data: Polymarket, Kalshi. Context: Al Jazeera, CFR, CNBC. Not financial advice.

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."