$134M Ground Entry Contract in Disputed Final Review After Rescue Mission -- April 7 Ceasefire

$134M Ground Entry Contract Enters Disputed Resolution After Friday's F-15 Rescue

The largest prediction market contract of the Iran conflict -- $134.7 million in total volume -- is now in disputed final review on Polymarket. After US special forces entered Iran Friday night to rescue a downed F-15 crew member, the "US forces enter Iran" contract proposed a Yes resolution. It was immediately challenged.

Today's Odds


Top Contracts

1. US Forces Enter Iran -- 99.9% Yes, DISPUTED ( Polymarket)
The contract rules state special operations forces qualify, and personnel must "deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian)." Shot-down pilots explicitly do not count -- but the rescue team that flew in to extract them does. The dispute likely centers on whether a rescue extraction meets the spirit of a contract most traders associated with a full ground invasion. At 99.9 cents, the market has overwhelmingly priced in Yes.

2. Ceasefire Ladder -- 1% to 69% ( $90.7M total volume)
Six contracts tell the whole story. April 7 (Monday): 1% -- $10.3M resolving to No in 48 hours. April 15: 5%. April 30: 18% -- first meaningful probability. May 31: 34%. June 30: 46%. December 31: 69%. For energy traders, this curve says oil stays elevated through Q2 with gradually increasing peace probability in H2.

3. Iranian Regime Fall by April 30 -- 3.75% ( $20.7M volume)
Six weeks of sustained airstrikes, thousands of targets destroyed, and the market still gives the regime a 96% survival rate this month.

4. Fed 50+ bps Cut at April FOMC -- 0.35% ( $18.9M volume)
Despite oil above $100, disrupted global shipping, and wages at a 5-year low, essentially zero probability of an emergency cut. Stagflation confirmed.

What to Watch

• Monday: April 7 ceasefire resolves. $10.3M settling to No unless dramatic weekend announcement.
• Ground entry "Final Review" concludes within 48-72 hours -- sets precedent for rescue-type events.
• Second airman still missing. Iranian media offering $60K bounty. Capture would be a major escalation catalyst.

Data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Not financial advice.

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."