CME Lists U.S. Election Event Contracts as 2028 Democratic Race Hits $982 Million in Volume

CME Lists U.S. Election Event Contracts as the 2028 Democratic Race Hits $982 Million

While Iran dominates prediction markets headlines, the biggest structural story this week flew under the radar: CME Group listed U.S. election event contracts on March 30, alongside international soccer, pro baseball combos, and pro basketball combos. Futures traders can now trade political outcomes on the same exchange where they trade ES and crude.

Today's Prediction Market Odds


Top Contracts to Watch

1. 2028 Democratic Nomination -- $982M Volume, Newsom 24% ( Polymarket)

Nearly a billion dollars traded on who the Democrats will nominate. Newsom leads at 24%, Ossoff and AOC tied at 8%, and -- yes -- Stephen A. Smith sits at 2.5% with $15.7M in real volume, ahead of Whitmer, Michelle Obama, and Mark Cuban. The top four combine for under 47%. The field is wide open.

With CME now listing election event contracts ( SER-9709), futures traders can directly hedge political risk alongside existing positions. CME is also moving event contracts to 24/7 trading by May 29.

2. Fed April Meeting -- 98.4% No Change ( Polymarket)

Despite war, oil above $100, and wages at 5-year lows, the April FOMC is effectively settled: 98.4% hold, 0.4% emergency cut, 0.9% hike. $52.5M in volume says the Fed is frozen between conflicting mandates. CME FedWatch confirms identical pricing. Rates go nowhere until Iran resolves or the economy breaks decisively.

3. Iran Ceasefire Term Structure -- The Shape Tells the Story ( Polymarket)

The April 7 contract expires Monday at 1% -- effectively dead. The full $90.7M ceasefire curve:

• April 7: 1% | April 15: 5% | April 30: 18%
• May 31: 34% | June 30: 46% | December 31: 69%

The steepest jump is April 30 to June 30 (+28 points) -- traders see May-June as the real diplomatic window. Iran's former diplomat Kharazi called for a deal this week; the market shrugged. Crude oil futures map directly to this curve.

4. Regime Fall 3.75%, US Entry 99.75% ( Polymarket)

US forces entry is priced as certainty ($47.6M volume). Regime collapse? Just 3.75%. Markets expect military presence without regime change -- a prolonged engagement, not a decisive endgame.

What to Watch

• Monday: April 7 ceasefire resolves
• April 28-29: FOMC tests the 98% hold consensus
• April 30: Multiple Iran contracts expire simultaneously

Data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. CME filings: SER-9709. Not financial advice.

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."