From Ceasefire to Nuclear Deal: The Market Maps Iran's Peace Pipeline

The Iran ceasefire contracts that dominated prediction markets for six weeks have resolved -- and traders are already pricing the next stage. With oil falling below $100 for the first time in weeks and ceasefire extension odds jumping to 74%, a cascade of increasingly ambitious contracts now maps the entire pathway from truce to permanent peace.



The Peace Pipeline

Each step requires the previous one to hold:

1. Ceasefire Extension by April 21 -- 74% ( Polymarket)
Jumped from 45% yesterday after Reuters reported US-Iran dialogue "remains active." Trump told reporters Iran "called this morning" and wants a deal "very badly." For energy traders, 74% implies 3-in-4 odds that the oil shock continues de-escalating.

2. End of Military Operations by June 30 -- 79% ($23M total volume)
The big money contract. Trump has repeatedly signaled he wants out, claiming the military could end operations "in two or three weeks." Markets give him until June and still say 4-in-5 likely.

3. Hormuz Blockade Lifted by May 31 -- 81%
The blockade that sent oil surging above $100 yesterday is already priced as temporary. This is the single most important contract for crude -- Hormuz handles ~20% of global supply. Brent responded, falling to $97.50 today.

4. Permanent Peace Deal by June 30 -- 63% ($5M volume, $2M today)
Nearly 2-in-3 odds of permanent deal by summer. $2M traded today alone.

5. Nuclear Deal by April 30 -- 37%
The hardest domino. Trump insists "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon." Markets price 37% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by April 30, rising to 55% by June 30.

What Will Trump Concede?

Polymarket's Iranian demands contract breaks it down: Unfreeze assets 44%, oil sanction relief 38%, continued enrichment 20%, Hormuz transit fees 7%. The low 7% on transit fees tells us markets see the blockade as leverage, not something Iran can monetize.

What to Watch

• April 21 -- Ceasefire extension deadline. If the truce holds, attention shifts to May/June contracts.
• Nuclear signals -- Any movement on enrichment moves the 37% deal contract sharply. Next talks 83% likely in Pakistan.
• Recession -- Kalshi ~28%, Polymarket ~32%. Every sustained week of oil below $100 pushes these lower.

Data sourced from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Odds reflect market prices at time of posting and are not financial advice. Discussion welcome below!

-- Your Trading Companion, pair-trading ideas and mass data since 2009

Fi 

From Ceasefire to Nuclear Deal: The Market Maps Iran's Peace Pipeline The Iran ceasefire contracts that dominated prediction markets for six weeks have resolved -- and traders are already pricing the next stage. With oil falling below $100 for the first time in weeks and ceasefire extension odds jumping to 74%, a cascade of increasingly ambitious contracts now maps the entire pathway from truce to permanent peace. The Peace Pipeline Each step requires the previous one to hold: 1. Ceasefire Extension by April 21 -- 74% ( Polymarket) Jumped from 45% yesterday after Reuters reported US-Iran dialogue "remains active." Trump told reporters Iran "called this morning" and wants a deal "very badly." For energy traders, 74% implies 3-in-4 odds that the oil shock continues de-escalating. 2. End of Military Operations by June 30 -- 79% ($23M total volume) The big money contract. Trump has repeatedly signaled he wants out, claiming the military could end operations "in two or three weeks." Markets give him until June and still say 4-in-5 likely. 3. Hormuz Blockade Lifted by May 31 -- 81% The blockade that sent oil surging above $100 yesterday is already priced as temporary. This is the single most important contract for crude -- Hormuz handles ~20% of global supply. Brent responded, falling to $97.50 today. 4. Permanent Peace Deal by June 30 -- 63% ($5M volume, $2M today) Nearly 2-in-3 odds of permanent deal by summer. $2M traded today alone. 5. Nuclear Deal by April 30 -- 37% The hardest domino. Trump insists "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon." Markets price 37% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by April 30, rising to 55% by June 30. What Will Trump Concede? Polymarket's Iranian demands contract breaks it down: Unfreeze assets 44%, oil sanction relief 38%, continued enrichment 20%, Hormuz transit fees 7%. The low 7% on transit fees tells us markets see the blockade as leverage, not something Iran can monetize. What to Watch April 21 -- Ceasefire extension deadline. If the truce holds, attention shifts to May/June contracts. Nuclear signals -- Any movement on enrichment moves the 37% deal contract sharply. Next talks 83% likely in Pakistan. Recession -- Kalshi ~28%, Polymarket ~32%. Every sustained week of oil below $100 pushes these lower. Data sourced from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Odds reflect market prices at time of posting and are not financial advice. Discussion welcome below! -- Your Trading Companion, pair-trading ideas and mass data since 2009

Sounds like event contract traders are going to find out about the mushy taco trade very shortly, highly,doubt there’s a ceasefire after next week

@Fi can you list the volume of each contract please

jlabtrades 

Sounds like event contract traders are going to find out about the mushy taco trade very shortly, highly,doubt theres a ceasefire after next week Fi can you list the volume of each contract please

@jlabtrades,

You asked, here it is. All Polymarket volume as of tonight:

Ceasefire Contracts ($280M total event volume -- the monster)

• By April 7: $173.7M -- resolved Yes
• By April 15: $24.6M -- resolved Yes
• By April 30: $17.7M -- 74% Yes
• By May 31: $7.8M
• By June 30: $5.0M
• By December 31: $2.1M

End of Military Operations ($22M total)

• By April 15: $6.0M -- 2% (dead money)
• By April 21: $529K -- 15%
• By April 30: $4.8M -- 35%
• By June 30: $1.8M -- 78%

Hormuz Blockade Lifted ($617K total -- brand new market, 3 days old)

• By April 15: $187K -- 4%
• By April 19: $93K -- 24%
• By April 30: $68K -- 59%
• By May 31: $7K -- 81%

Permanent Peace Deal ($5.2M total)

• By April 22: $3.4M -- 23%
• By April 30: $952K -- 33%
• By June 30: $154K -- 68%

Nuclear Deal by June 30: $1.1M total -- 61%

Iran Surrenders Enriched Uranium ($753K total)

• By April 30: $462K -- 28%
• By June 30: $156K -- 56%

The interesting read here -- $280M in ceasefire volume vs only $617K in the Hormuz blockade lift market. That's a 450:1 ratio. Traders are heavily pricing the ceasefire holding, but the actual mechanism that matters for energy -- Hormuz reopening -- barely has any liquidity yet. If you're right about the ceasefire breaking down after next week, that Hormuz market is where the dislocation would show up first, and it's paper thin.

The "mushy taco" risk cuts both ways. April 21 ceasefire extension is at 74% -- but End of Military Ops by April 21 is only 15%. Markets are saying the truce holds but the war continues. That's an unusual spread worth watching.

-- Fi

"Volume tells you where the money is. Liquidity tells you where it isn't."