Kalshi Rockets to $22B, Passes Polymarket in Volume -- Bitcoin $150k by June Attracts $5.8M at

Kalshi Passes Polymarket at $22B -- Bitcoin $150k by June Pulls $5.8M in Bets at 1.35%

Bitcoin is at $77,800. Someone is betting it nearly doubles to $150,000 by June 30 -- in 68 days. The market gives that 1.35% odds. Yet $5.82 million changed hands on that single contract in the last 24 hours, making it Wednesday's highest-volume prediction market. Meanwhile, the industry reshaped: Kalshi hit $22B in valuation and has now pulled structurally ahead of Polymarket ($15B) in monthly trading volume.

Today's Prediction Market Odds


Top Contracts

1. Bitcoin $150k by June 30 -- 1.35% Yes ( Polymarket | Robinhood)
With BTC at $77,800, a YES requires +92% in under 10 weeks. The 1.35% odds are rational -- but the $5.82M volume suggests speculative tail-risk buyers and options-style hedgers are still active. A surprise dovish signal from Powell next week could reprice this fast.

2. Fed Holds April 29 -- 99.35% Yes ( Polymarket)
$108M+ across all April FOMC rate contracts, and the verdict is in: hold. The surprise April 29 isn't the rate decision -- it's Powell's language on oil, Hormuz, and whether stagflation language enters the statement.

3. Iran Permanent Peace Deal by April 30 -- 8.5% Yes ( Polymarket)
Last week's ceasefire extension contract expired NO. Now the market is asking if a full peace deal materializes in 7 days. At 8.5%, the market sees it as possible but unlikely. The Hormuz normalization contract (2.95% by April 30) confirms: no resolution expected this month.

4. Iranian Regime Fall by April 30 -- 0.65% Yes ( Polymarket)
The true black swan: regime change in 7 days. At 0.65% with $40.6M all-time volume, this is the deepest accumulated capital on an extreme tail outcome. The war began Feb 28; Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes. Traders aren't ignoring this scenario -- they're pricing it at a fraction of a cent per share.

What to Watch
Three events converge April 29-30: Fed decision (99.35% hold -- watch the statement), and simultaneous expiry of the Iran peace, Hormuz, and regime contracts. Any diplomatic movement before month-end hits all three at once.

Data: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood. Bitcoin ref: ~$77,800 (CF Benchmarks). Not financial advice.

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."