Hormuz Surges From 14% to 26.5% Intraday as Iran's Answer Arrives -- A 1-in-4 Oil Shock Risk Be

Hormuz Doubles Intraday as Iran's Friday Deadline Hits -- 26.5% and Climbing

Secretary Rubio said Iran's MOU response was expected today. Despite warships exchanging fire this morning, Hormuz normalization odds nearly doubled in a single session -- from 14% to 26.5%. Peace deal hit a new high at 34.5%. For energy traders: that is a 1-in-4 probability of a supply normalization event before May 31.

Today's Prediction Market Odds


Key Contracts

1. US-Iran Peace Deal by May 31 -- 34.5% Yes ( Polymarket)
New high today on $17.5M total volume. The 14-point MOU offers: 12+ year nuclear moratorium, US sanctions lifted, frozen assets released, mutual Hormuz reopening within 30 days. At 34.5%, this is near-even money on a deal that rewrites the energy complex.

2. Strait of Hormuz Normalization by May 31 -- 26.5% Yes ( Polymarket)
The real crude trade. Up from 14% this morning on today's diplomatic signals. $9.9M in total volume. A trader long crude who isn't pricing this tail is ignoring a 26.5% probability of 3-5 mb/d returning to market. That's a position sizing decision, not a footnote.

3. Bitcoin Hits $150K by June 30 -- 1.35% Yes ( Polymarket | Robinhood)
Highest 24h volume in today's dataset: $5.82M on a 1.35% contract with $19,823 in liquidity. All position unwinds. Collapsed from 15% in mid-April. Consensus has settled: no 2026 BTC parabola.

4. Bernie Sanders 2028 Dem Nomination -- 0.75% Yes ( Polymarket)
Largest cumulative market in the dataset at $48.5M total volume. Yet no one is leading -- the entire field is priced in the low single digits. For equity traders: the wide-open 2028 race means sector rotation risk (healthcare, energy, finance) is under-priced in long-dated positions.

What to Watch
Iran's answer today moves peace and Hormuz contracts by Monday. May 15 is Trump's harder cutoff -- no deal by then and peace odds collapse. Project Freedom restart = talks failed. June FOMC locked at 96% hold, but a Hormuz normalization-driven oil drop would accelerate July cut pricing fast.

Data: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood. Odds at time of posting, not financial advice.

TGIF! Have a good weekend!

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."