Trump Lands in Beijing on CPI Day: Iran Peace Expires Today, Hormuz Has 96 Hours -- Resolution

Trump Lands in Beijing on CPI Day -- Iran Peace Expires Today, Hormuz Has 96 Hours

China confirmed this morning: Trump visits Beijing May 13-15. Wednesday. The same day April CPI drops at 8:30 AM ET. Two of the biggest market catalysts of the month land simultaneously, and prediction markets have already priced every outcome. Meanwhile, the Iran peace deal contract expires TODAY at midnight UTC, and Hormuz has 96 hours to its May 15 deadline.

Today's Prediction Market Odds


Top Contracts to Watch

1. US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 11 -- 0.25% Yes ( Polymarket)
Resolves TODAY at midnight UTC. The market called it weeks ago: Trump rejected Iran's 14-point MOU, Pakistan-mediated talks stalled, and the $2.6M in 24-hour volume is position settlement -- not new conviction. Lifetime volume: $3.98M. Energy markets have already digested this NO; crude is trading the blockade reality, not peace deal optimism.

2. Will Trump Visit China by May 15? -- 99.15% Yes ( Polymarket)
Confirmed this morning. Trump departs Wednesday with Boeing, Nvidia, and Apple CEOs for his first China visit since 2017. The tradeable angle is not the contract -- it's NQ Wednesday. Semiconductor tariff language or rare earth access commitments move tech futures 1-2%. Brookings analysts flag low expectations; sell-the-news risk is real if the joint statement is symbolic-only.

3. Strait of Hormuz Normalization by May 15 -- 0.75% Yes ( Polymarket)
Four days, $12.9M in lifetime volume, and the answer is essentially certain at 0.75%. Iran demands nuclear enrichment rights as a precondition -- that gap does not close in 96 hours. One wildcard: Xi publicly called Hormuz an international waterway and is expected to press Iran during Trump's Beijing visit. Any Beijing-brokered breakthrough drops Hormuz tail risk from CL pricing immediately.

4. Hantavirus Pandemic in 2026 -- 7.85% Yes ( Polymarket)
Stable in the 7-8% range since the Switzerland case last week. A WHO pandemic declaration requires sustained human-to-human transmission across multiple continents -- a higher bar than headlines suggest. Watch for drift above 10% as the Q4 seasonal window approaches.

What to Watch

• Today (May 11): Iran peace contract resolves NO at midnight UTC.
• Wednesday May 13 -- Dual Catalyst Day: CPI 8:30 AM ET and Trump arrives in Beijing. Hot print (core above 3.2%) with a dovish joint statement creates contradictory signals for rates and equities.
• Thursday May 15: Hormuz contract expires. Watch Beijing communique for any Iran pressure language -- that is the only path to a surprise.

Data sourced from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Odds at time of posting. Not financial advice. Discussion welcome below!

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."