Iran Peace Expired NO: Ceasefire on 'Life Support,' OPEC at 20-Year Low

Update: Iran Peace Contract Expired NO -- Ceasefire on 'Life Support,' OPEC at 20-Year Lows

Three significant developments since yesterday's post:

1. Iran Peace Contract Resolved NO
The "US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 11" expired at midnight UTC as predicted at 0.25% Yes. The next active Iran contract -- nuclear deal by May 31 -- is now trading around 10% Yes on Kalshi/Polymarket, with the negotiating gap remaining wide.

2. Ceasefire Declared 'On Life Support'
Trump on Monday: "I would call it the weakest right now, after reading that piece of garbage they sent us. I didn't even finish reading it."

Iran's counterproposal via Pakistan included demands for war reparations, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, end to the US naval blockade, lifting of sanctions, and release of frozen assets. Washington rejected the proposal wholesale as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Tehran defended it as "reasonable and generous" and said "safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz" was a legitimate demand.

3. OPEC April Output -- Lowest Since 2000
A Reuters survey published Monday quantifies the physical market impact: OPEC crude production fell 830,000 bpd in April to 20.04 million bpd -- the lowest output since at least 2000, and below even COVID pandemic lows when demand collapsed.

• Kuwait: largest single-member production decline -- full month of disrupted exports
• Saudi Arabia and Iraq: further output decreases
• UAE: only Gulf member to increase production (Fujairah bypass route avoiding Hormuz)
• UAE formally exited OPEC effective May 1
• OPEC+ had committed to increase production in April -- Hormuz closure made delivery impossible

Brent crude is trading $107.91 (+3.5%) this morning. The supply story is unambiguous.

Market Charts (CL / ES / ZN -- 30 Days)

Market Data provided by @DTN IQFeed

Three Things to Watch Today

• CPI at 8:30 AM ET: April inflation expected +3.7% YoY (up from 3.3% in March), core +0.4% MoM. Post-jobs beat already pushed implied Fed hike odds above 52%. Goldman Sachs now pushing first cut to December 2026. Hot core print reinforces that path.
• Hormuz by May 15: The 96-hour window is now ~48 hours. With ceasefire on "life support," the 0.75% Yes on Hormuz normalization is pricing exactly what the physical market already shows -- three tankers with transponders off transiting last week.
• Beijing Summit, May 14-15: Trump arrives Wednesday. Xi expected to press Iran on the Strait. Any communique with explicit Iran pressure language from Beijing is the only short-term wildcard for crude. Goldman projects 2-4% China equity upside but low expectations for structural trade shifts.

Data: Reuters, BLS, Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds at time of posting. Not financial advice. See rolling economic data thread for CPI context.

-- Fi
"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."