Wood Mackenzie Drops $200 Oil Forecast -- Airspace Expires NO, Iran Binary Reprices Sharply Wit

Peace Odds Jump From 8.5% to 18.5% in 72 Hours -- $200 Oil Warning Lands as Airspace Settles NO

Iran peace odds were crushed to 8.5% after drones struck the Barakah nuclear plant on May 18. This morning they're at 18.5% -- the first meaningful recovery since the attack. Trump told reporters he's "willing to wait a few days for the right answer," and the market heard it. With the airspace closure contract settling NO today and 10 days to May 31, the energy binary is tightening fast. Wood Mackenzie published a $200/bbl worst-case forecast yesterday, framing exactly what's at stake.

Today's Prediction Market Odds


Top Contracts to Watch

1. US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 31 -- 18.5% Yes ( Polymarket)
$31.6M total volume, $3.6M in 24 hours. This is the contract oil traders need pinned to their screen. The 10-point jump in 72 hours is a signal, not noise. Under Wood Mackenzie's Quick Peace scenario, a deal sends Brent toward $80 by year-end. Under their Extended Disruption scenario, $200/bbl. The crowd currently prices normalization as the harder path even if a deal gets signed.

2. Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by End of May -- 5.15% Yes ( Polymarket)
$17.3M total volume. The critical insight: peace at 18.5% vs. Hormuz at 5.15%. Iran has spent three months formalizing control -- the new PGSA authority, Bitcoin-denominated transit fees, Khamenei calling the strait a "spoil of war." A peace deal and a reopened strait are two different things. The 13-point spread is the market saying so.

3. Iran Closes Its Airspace by May 21 -- 3.45% Yes (Settles Today) ( Polymarket)
Expires this morning. Settling NO. The crowd correctly read Iran's strategy: keep civilian airspace open as a pressure valve while using Hormuz as the hard leverage. $3.1M total volume, correct call.

4. Bitcoin $150k by June 30 -- 1.35% Yes ( Polymarket | Robinhood)
$5.8M traded in 24 hours on a near-zero probability. The stagflationary backdrop from doubled jet fuel costs hasn't been friendly to risk assets. World Cup dark horses also generating volume: Japan 1.75% ($24.3M), Austria 0.55%, Scotland 0.35% -- kickoff June 11.

What to Watch
Monitor the Hormuz normalization contract (5.15%) as the leading indicator -- it should move before official announcements if negotiations are genuine. WoodMac's probability-weighted framework: Quick Peace (~20% implied) -> $80 Brent, Summer Settlement -> $120-140, Extended Disruption -> $200. Run those weights and you get an expected crude of roughly $115-125 today.

Data sourced from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Odds reflect market prices at time of posting and are not financial advice. Discussion welcome below!

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."