$12M Ceasefire Contract Goes 'Disputed' as Bandar Abbas Strikes Hit Iranian Ground -- May 28 Se

:dart: The Resolution Battle: $12M in Ceasefire Bets Land in Dispute Territory

While this morning's post covered the May 26 peace deadline collapsing to 2.85%, there's a story underneath the headlines that matters more for anyone who trades prediction markets: $12 million in ceasefire bets are currently sitting in "In Review / Disputed" status on Polymarket. Today's US strikes on Iranian missile launch sites near Bandar Abbas have triggered an active resolution battle -- and which way the arbiter rules will tell you a lot about how these contracts will price in future Iran escalations.

:bar_chart: Today's Prediction Market Odds


:fire: Top Contracts to Watch

1. Iran Ceasefire Continues Through May 24 -- 98.45% Yes ("In Review / Disputed") ( Polymarket)

This is the key market mechanics story of the day. The contract has $12M total volume and $6.1M in 24-hour trading alone -- most of which is resolution positioning. Polymarket proposed an outcome of No, but someone disputed it, placing the contract in "Final Review."

Here's why it's complicated: the contract definition requires US forces to have conducted "kinetic military action" using aerial bombs, drones, or missiles "that impact Iranian ground territory" before May 24 11:59 PM ET (with a one-day confirmation window). Today's Bandar Abbas strikes hit missile launch sites on land and mine-laying vessels at sea. The ground strikes appear to qualify -- Bandar Abbas is on the Iranian mainland. The maritime component doesn't. The dispute likely hinges on whether there's "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting" confirming ground impacts specifically.

For context: the ceasefire-through-May-28 contract already settled 100% No on independent tracking sites, meaning the ceasefire was definitively broken by May 28 under the same definition. The May 24 dispute is about whether earlier qualifying actions occurred before that specific deadline.

2. US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 26 -- 2.85% Yes ( Polymarket)

$5.57M in 24-hour volume on a contract expiring today at ~2.85%. The morning post noted this at 7.5%; it's now at 2.85%, reflecting the Bandar Abbas strikes closing out whatever hope remained. This one resolves No essentially the moment the last credible reporting window closes. The trading angle: sellers of Yes here captured a 430-point swing in less than 12 hours -- that's the kind of event-driven opportunity prediction markets exist for.

3. Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by End of May -- 2% Yes ( Polymarket)

Here's the nuance that makes 2% interesting rather than obvious: ships ARE moving through Hormuz right now. In the week ended May 24, three VLCCs carried 6 million barrels of crude to China and South Korea. Two LNG tankers crossed Monday. But Iran has built a checkpoint and permit system -- vessels need diplomatic arrangements, government-to-government deals, and in some cases fees. Average daily transits before the war: 125-140. Average daily transits now: a handful. The market says 2% for "normal" by May 31 because Iran's checkpoint system IS the new normal -- they're not going to dismantle it in the next 5 days. Trickle reopening does not equal contract resolution.

4. Iranian Regime Falls by May 31 -- 0.25% Yes ( Polymarket)

$2M in 24h volume on a 0.25% contract is notable. With $1.92M in liquidity and only 5 days to expiry, this is almost certainly arbitrage and hedging on other Iran contracts. The message: even US strikes on Iranian missile sites near Bandar Abbas don't move the regime-collapse needle. The market has been pricing regime stability consistently throughout this conflict -- Khamenei's position has not been threatened by the military campaign in any way the crowd finds credible.

5. Bitcoin Hits $150k by June 30 -- 1.35% Yes ( Polymarket | Robinhood)

$5.82M in 24-hour volume at 1.35% tells you two things. First, Bitcoin is currently around $76-77k (Polymarket same-day price markets show $76k resolved Yes, $78k resolved No). Second, someone is actively betting against the $150k thesis -- you don't get $5.82M in volume on a 35-day expiry at 1.35% without large short positions. Bitcoin would need to roughly double from today's price in 35 days for this to resolve Yes. By December 31, the crowd gives it 10% on both Polymarket and Kalshi. The June 30 contract is where people come to sell the hype.

6. Fed Hikes 50+ bps at June Meeting -- 0.25% Yes ( Polymarket)

$1.14M in 24h volume on a 0.25% Yes. CPI printed +3.8% in April -- hottest in 3 years -- and Warsh is now Fed Chair. The market still prices out a 50bps hike with 99.75% confidence. The Iran war and energy inflation haven't shifted the Fed calculus: Warsh's signals have been consistently "hold" despite the hawkish board. The Iran premium in oil prices appears to already be priced in without forcing the Fed's hand.

CME Note: Event Contracts Go 24/7 This Thursday

Starting at 4:00 PM CT on Friday, May 29 (effectively this Thursday evening), CME expands event contracts -- including Bitcoin event contracts -- to 24/7 trading. Three days away. If you're actively trading Bitcoin event contracts on CME Globex, systems certification and 24/7 Convenience Gateway migration should already be in progress. Weekend trades after Friday 4 PM CT will carry Monday's trade date.

:chart_with_upwards_trend: What to Watch

The dispute resolution on the ceasefire-through-May-24 contract is the immediate call. If Polymarket's arbiter confirms the US strikes hit Iranian ground territory -- which the Bandar Abbas reporting strongly suggests for the missile sites -- the contract resolves No despite 98.45% consensus pricing. That's a 97-cent move against the crowd. Watch volume on that contract; unusual trading near resolution typically signals information flow.

The May 31 cluster -- regime fall (0.25%), Hormuz normalization (2%), and any pending ceasefire extension contracts -- all expire within 5 days. With today's Bandar Abbas strikes, the ceasefire narrative is shifting from "will it hold" to "what exactly broke it and when." That framing matters for how June contracts will be structured and priced.

Data sourced from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Odds reflect market prices at time of posting and are not financial advice. Discussion welcome below!

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."