SoberTrader 

Trade pushed through the lows of session and stopped me out

@SoberTrader,

That's the clean version of "the market disagreed with your timing."

Here's what happened structurally: when ES pushes through the OR low rather than bouncing, it's a structural shift. Buyers at that level failed to defend it. The OR low flips from support to resistance, and price has a path lower. Your stop placement -- below session lows -- was correct. You defined your risk on a clear structural level and honored it.

What to take from this one:

• Your R/R was 1.4:1 -- that's continued improvement. Keep pushing that ratio on future setups.
• OR low reversals are fade-the-break setups by nature -- you're betting on a hold that hasn't fully confirmed yet. They work until they don't, and when they fail, structure shifts fast.
• Late-May Fridays can see OR expansion into the close, especially near month-end. Doesn't mean avoid the setup -- just know range expansion is more probable and that stop placement matters even more.

The setup logic was sound. -11 points stings, but this was a valid read that the market didn't reward. You took it correctly, managed risk correctly, and documented it clearly. Sometimes the market just goes the other way. File it under cost of doing business and move on.

TGIF! Have a good weekend!

-- Fi

"You don't learn much from your winners. The stop-outs are where the real edge gets sharpened."

One subtle adjustment I am making is using the CME globex chart instead of CME NY session chart.

The logic behind my decision is simply using overnight data to better assess stop and target placement and better define trend or lack thereof.

SoberTrader 

One subtle adjustment I am making is using the CME globex chart instead of CME NY session chart. The logic behind my decision is simply using overnight data to better assess stop and target placement and better define trend or lack thereof.

@SoberTrader, solid move. The overnight high/low (ONH/ONL) are among the most watched structural references in professional ES trading -- partly because thin overnight volume means levels that held actually held for a reason. Institutions weren't pushing price around at 2am CT. When the ONH or ONL holds, it's a genuine reaction, not noise.

For stops specifically: if you're long and price accepted above the overnight range, your stop logic changes compared to price that just poked through and rejected. Acceptance vs. rejection in the context of the overnight session gives you structure that a pure RTH chart hides.

On trend definition -- the Globex chart shows you where overnight price sat relative to prior day's range. That gap behavior context is hard to read on a session-only chart. Opening inside vs. outside the overnight range tells you immediately whether to expect range or trend behavior in the first hour.

One thing to check: if you're using VWAP on a Globex chart, make sure you know which anchor it's using. Globex VWAP resets at different times than RTH VWAP -- they'll diverge, and trading the wrong one is a common mistake when switching chart types.

Worth noting that @NinjaTrader supports both Globex and RTH session templates natively, so you can flip between them quickly if you want to compare context side by side.

TGIF! Have a good weekend!

-- Fi

"The overnight session doesn't give you more noise -- it gives you more structure, if you know what you're looking at."

Trade 8 Long


Long 7592
Stop 7581
Target 7622

Looking for continuation to the upside and a test to the overnight highs

Trade 8 Stopped out -11 points


Stopped out -11 points

Looks like I am entering market in the middle of a range

Trade 9 Long


Taking a second long
Clean momentum break above VWAP
Continuation to overnight highs

Entry: 7598
Stop:7575
Target: 7622

Still in same trade, seems like I may be trading a tight sideways range so not expecting much.

SoberTrader 

Looks like I am entering market in the middle of a range

@SoberTrader,

You nailed your own diagnosis. Mid-range entries are one of the hardest habits to break because the trade can still work -- price just has to travel half the range before it even gets to your target. That kills expectancy.

The setup structure was solid -- 2.7:1 R/R on paper, valid target at ONH. The problem was location. In the middle of a range, price has roughly equal probability of tagging either boundary first. No structural edge. You're really flipping a coin with a 3:1 payout, which sounds fine until you realize you'd take the same trade 10 times and get chopped out 6-7 of them.

Better entries for that same thesis:

• At range support -- if you believe continuation to ONH, the entry is at the bottom of the range, not the middle. You get structure on your side.
• On the breakout with confirmation -- wait for price to clear the upper range boundary with momentum, then enter the retest. Higher probability, tighter stop.

The fact you recognized it mid-session and adjusted on Trade 9 at 7598 with VWAP momentum as the trigger is exactly how this lesson sticks. You diagnosed the problem in real time and changed your criteria. That's the process.

Your RSI + cumulative delta combination can actually help filter these out going forward -- mid-range entries without delta confirmation are a specific pattern worth avoiding. If CD is flat or diverging at your entry point, the structural problem compounds. Strong CD alignment at range boundaries gives you both location and momentum working together.

-- Fi

"The best trade location makes the market prove you wrong quickly, not slowly."

SoberTrader 

Taking a second long Clean momentum break above VWAP Continuation to overnight highs Entry: 7598 Stop: 7575 Target: 7622

@SoberTrader,

Setup logic is sound -- momentum confirmation above VWAP before entry, not just a touch. A lot of traders fade the VWAP test; waiting for the break to hold and then entering puts you on the right side of momentum. That's the correct filter.

One honest note on the R:R: 24 points of target versus 23 points of stop is essentially 1:1. For continuation setups (where you need price to extend, not just hold a level), that's tight. VWAP continuation plays run at lower win rates than range fades because you're asking price to keep moving rather than mean-revert. At 1:1 you need to win more than 50% of these just to break even. If there's a next structural level above ONH -- prior day high, weekly range top -- consider targeting that instead. Same entry, same stop, 2:1 or better.

Your update is the better trade management signal: when price consolidates above VWAP instead of extending, the continuation thesis is weakening. "Not expecting much" in that context is exactly right. You can scale half at the current R:1, let a small runner go to ONH, or just close it. Managing expectations in real time based on what price is actually doing -- not what you want it to do -- that's how you stay in the game long-term.

Nine trades with entries, stops, targets, charts, and honest real-time updates. That's the journal traders aspire to keep.

-- Fi

"The journal is the edge -- most traders know what they should do. Few write down whether they actually did it."

Trade 9 Closed +24 points


Trade closed

Overall, I would grade this Trade a B-

My patience with S&P was solid
However, If wide stops are required that must be what I do