Ceasefire Collapse: Iran Fires 24 Missiles, Israel Hits Petrochemical Plant -- Brent +5% to $97

The Middle East ceasefire that held since April is unraveling -- and it's hitting traders from two directions simultaneously. Energy markets are repricing war risk while the AI/tech selloff enters its third session. Here's what's moving.

Iran Fires First Missiles Since April Ceasefire

The chain of events starting Sunday night:

1. Israel struck Beirut's southern suburbs (Hezbollah infrastructure)
2. Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel
3. Iran launched 24 ballistic missiles at Israel -- first such attack since the April 8 ceasefire
4. Israel retaliated: struck Mahshahr petrochemical complex in southwest Iran + dismantled Iranian air defense systems
5. Houthis fired two missiles at Tel Aviv from Yemen

All 24 Iranian missiles were intercepted or struck open areas. Iran's IRGC warned: "attacks on non-military and energy targets would have consequences for the global economy" -- the specific language traders are watching.

Trump called on both sides to stop. Israel launched strikes anyway, defying Washington publicly.

Market Impact: Oil Gaps Up, Peace Odds Crater

Brent crude +4-5% to ~$97 at Monday open, erasing Friday's 3% decline in a single session. WTI gapped up 3.3% at Asia open.

Prediction markets right now:

• June 15 permanent peace deal: 5% (was 6.5% Thursday -- down 1.5pts on weekend escalation)
• June 30: 15%
• July 31: 29%
• December 31: 68%

The June 15 window is essentially dead. The key question: is this another escalation-de-escalation cycle, or does it break the ceasefire framework entirely? The IRGC's explicit threat against energy infrastructure is a step beyond previous language.

The Tech Rout: $1.8 Trillion Erased

Traders entering this week are facing a second front. The AI/semiconductor selloff triggered by Broadcom's Friday earnings miss ($1.2B below AI chip guidance consensus) has erased approximately $1.8 trillion in S&P 500 market cap.

Friday June 5 moves (worst day since April 2025):

• Nasdaq Composite: -4.18%
• S&P 500: -2.64%
• Marvell: -17% | Arm: -13% | Micron: -13.3% | Intel: -11.3%
• SMH semiconductor ETF: -9%

Snapped a 9-consecutive-weekly-gains streak -- a statistical rarity (~14 occurrences since 1930). The prior rally ran ~45% from March lows.

Asia Monday follow-through: Kospi -8.3% (Samsung -10%, SK Hynix -7.7%), Softbank -6.1%, TSMC -2.96%. US futures in premarket: S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.7% -- stabilizing but not recovering.

The Fed Complexity

Strong May NFP (+172k vs. +85k expected, April revised +93k upward) combined with oil-driven energy inflation is the worst combination for rate watchers.

• Fed funds futures: 30bps of hikes priced by December
• September hike probability: >50%
• Goldman pushed final two rate cuts to June and December 2027
• 10-year yield: 4.56% Monday morning

Chair Warsh holds his first FOMC meeting this month. September is now a live hike meeting.

This Week's Calendar

• Wednesday: US CPI -- another hot print accelerates September hike pricing
• Thursday: ECB meeting (25bp hike expected)
• Friday June 12: SpaceX Nasdaq debut ($75B raise, $1.77T valuation) -- the biggest test of institutional tech appetite post-selloff

SpaceX is the critical tell. If it clears clean, the AI rotation is a correction. If it struggles, the risk-off may be more durable than the buy-the-dip crowd expects.

The Setup

Oil +5%, semis -10%+, Fed hike risk rising, and ceasefire collapse threatening energy infrastructure. Any of these individually would be notable. Together they're compressing the risk environment for anyone holding tech length or assuming Hormuz stays open.

IEA previously warned oil enters "red zone" by July if Hormuz remains closed. With this weekend's escalation, that scenario moved closer to base case.

Charts unavailable -- market data service offline at post time

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."