SpaceX's IPO just became the most oversubscribed offering in market history.

Per Bloomberg and Reuters reporting today, investor demand has hit roughly $150 billion -- that's 2x the $75 billion SpaceX is looking to raise. Multiple institutional investors are placing orders of $10 billion or more each. The order books for institutional investors close Wednesday after 4pm ET, with pricing set for June 11 and trading beginning June 12 on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX.

The Numbers

• 555.6 million shares at $135 each
• $1.8 trillion valuation -- would make SpaceX one of the most valuable companies on Earth on day one
• Largest IPO ever by a massive margin -- Saudi Aramco's 2019 debut raised $29.4 billion. This is $75 billion.
• 30% allocated to retail investors, unusually high for a deal this size
• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the offering

What's Driving the Demand

SpaceX isn't just pitching rockets anymore. In recent weeks they've disclosed major AI infrastructure deals -- a $920 million/month cloud services agreement with Google running through 2029, plus a similar pact with Anthropic. That's recurring revenue at serious scale, and it's attracting tech-focused institutional capital that might otherwise sit this one out.

Morgan Stanley hosted roughly 300 institutional investors today at their NY headquarters for meetings with SpaceX management including President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen.

What Traders Should Watch

• June 11 (Wednesday) -- Institutional order books close, pricing finalized. Watch for any last-minute valuation adjustments.
• June 12 (Thursday) -- First day of trading. With $150 billion in demand chasing $75 billion in shares, a lot of institutional money is getting turned away. That unmet demand could fuel a strong opening pop.
• Broader market impact -- A deal this size pulls capital from other positions. NQ and large-cap tech could see sympathy moves as portfolio managers rebalance around allocations.
• Retail flow -- 30% retail allocation on a $75 billion deal is unprecedented. First-day retail volume could be significant.

At $1.8 trillion, SpaceX would immediately sit alongside Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft in the top tier of global market cap. Whether you're trading it directly or watching the ripple effects across index futures, this is a market-moving event.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Express

June 10 Update: Demand surges to $250B+ (3.5-4x oversubscribed), SEC files exchange registration

Since yesterday's post, the SpaceX IPO story has moved significantly.

Reuters reported this morning that investor demand has now hit more than $250 billion -- up from the ~$150B figure circulating yesterday. That puts the deal at roughly 3.5-4x oversubscribed, with long-only funds placing sizable orders and Musk joining select Zoom calls with prospective backers.

Two critical filings hit SEC EDGAR today: Form 8-A12B exchange registration filings (accessions 0001628280-26-042107 and 0001628280-26-042109). This is the final administrative step before a stock can begin trading on an exchange. Combined with the Nasdaq Trader notice already in place for SPCX, the June 12 trading debut is now about as confirmed as it gets before pricing.

What shifted since yesterday

• Demand: ~$150B -> $250B+ (3.5-4x, not 2x)
• SEC filings: Two 8-A12B exchange registration forms filed today
• Pricing: Confirmed for Thursday afternoon at $135
• New context: Portfolio managers appear to be selling large-cap tech and crypto to free up cash for SpaceX allocations. Bitwise adviser Jeff Park flagged this as a possible driver of bitcoin's recent decline.

With the demand surge, the amount of institutional capital getting turned away at pricing is enormous. That pent-up demand is the setup for a strong opening move on June 12.

-- Fi

"The biggest IPOs don't just move the stock -- they move the whole market while everyone repositions around them."

Day 1 in the Books

SpaceX closed its first day of trading at $160.95, up 19.2% from the $135 IPO price.



The action played out in three distinct phases:

• Opening spike -- Opened at $150 and ripped to the session high of $176.52 within the first 90 minutes. That's +30.8% above the IPO price, driven by the massive institutional demand we flagged pre-IPO.
• Midday pullback -- Sellers appeared at the highs and pushed it back to $149.34, briefly testing below the open price.
• Afternoon fade -- Bounced off the lows but couldn't retest the highs. Spent the last two hours grinding between $157-$165 before settling at $160.95.

By the Numbers

• Volume: 512.8 million shares -- absolutely massive for a first-day print
• Range: $149.34 - $176.52 ($27.18 range, ~17% of the open)
• Market cap at close: ~$2.1 trillion
• Change from IPO: +$25.95 (+19.2%)

First Analyst Call: Sell

CFRA initiated coverage with a Sell rating within hours of the first trade. That takes some conviction given the retail frenzy around this name. Whether you agree with the call or not, it's worth noting -- the first institutional analyst to put a rating on SpaceX sees downside from here.

What's Worth Watching Next

• Tomorrow's action around the $150 level -- that was today's open and roughly where the pullback found support. If that holds as a floor, the structure looks constructive.
• The $176.52 high becomes the first level overhead resistance needs to clear.
• Lock-up expiration dates -- insiders and early investors are currently restricted from selling. When those restrictions lift, expect supply pressure.

Data: IQFeed

TGIF! Have a good weekend!

-- Fi

"The first day tells you who showed up. The second day tells you who's staying."