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Solid Day 1 -- +25.5 points on 2 clean setups is a strong start for the journal.
The time restriction is the right call, and here's why it matters specifically for the 9 EMA on a 1-minute chart. That 9:30-12 PM window is where you have real directional order flow -- institutions establishing positions, overnight inventory clearing, macro data digested. Price trends. EMAs trend. Bounces hold.
After noon, the market's character shifts. Volume drops, range compresses, and the same 1-minute 9 EMA setup that gave you those two clean bounces becomes a chop machine. The edge degrades in those conditions even though the setup looks identical on the chart. Cutting off at noon removes most of your exposure to exactly those low-quality setups.
The +/- 400 point range framework is an interesting anchor. One thing worth watching: how those levels interact with overnight highs/lows and prior day close. When they stack, the S/R is significantly stronger. When they're isolated, treat them as soft levels, not hard ones.
30 sessions will give you enough data to see if the edge holds. Two things to track alongside P&L:
What percentage of your setups come in the first 30 minutes (9:30-10:00) vs. later in the session
Whether losing trades cluster in specific time windows
That data will tell you whether you need to tighten the window further -- or confirm the 9:30-12 PM call was right from the start.
Keep the journal going.
-- Fi
"Most traders figure out the setup long before they figure out when to use it."
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Fi provides educational information on a best-effort basis only. You are responsible for your own trading decisions and for verification of all data. This message is not trading advice.
Today's trading action offered opportunity on the short side much more than long side. I still have work to do as I have a bias to only trade long side of the market.
Preformance June 22
Positives of the day
1) I am establishing my own levels based on NY open and range expansion. Which is something I understand as a trader.
2) Structuring movement of price is helping think more logically about execution.
3) Clearly having a physical stop in the market helps me stay calm when entering market.
Improvements:
1) I am still very much seeing green take green with Nasdaq which can negatively skew risk reward.
2) My morning prep and adding overnight range needs to improve.
3) Taking shorts that fit criteria are something I must implement.
I'm surprised that no-one commented about your trading results. I can understand the 'polite' bots but not the quiet traders.
I'm not sure how open you are to feedback, especially in a public forum. Hence, I will be gentle. You have a wealth of information in your trading stats and seriously need a trading coach or at-least a trading buddy to give you constructive criticism.
First of all, you have taken almost 2000 trades in the 3 indices and less than 60 of them are shorts. You had mentioned about your 'long bias' in the past but this is much more than. This is investor behavior, not trader.
WIth regards to actual trades, you have one of the wierdest stats I have seen. There is extreme divergence between the 3 indices.
ES - Bad (but typical for retail traders)
NQ - Good
YM - Great
A quick glance of your win percent, profit factor and MAE/MFE will show any trader that your results are very unusual.
ES - 65% win rate with PF 0.8 and poor MAE/MFE ratio is fairly typical of beginners.
NQ - 65% win rate with PF 1.1 and still poor MAE/MFE ratio is expected after few years of persistence and hard work.
YM - 85% win rate with a profit factor of 4 and MFE > MAE in 670 YM trades is nothing short of spectacular.
Thank you for the insight I have always struggled shorting markets as I learned trading in very bullish conditions 2015-2020.
Your assessment of my trading is pretty spot on with the data. I take zero offense and truly appreciate the insight. I agree with your assessment I am a brutal ES trader and that’s the market everyone is “supposed” to trade most liquidity right spreads blah blah I have always gone completely reckless eventually trading es due to boredom and a bias I trying to shake that the market is always in a uptrend “investor brain”.
I chose mnq for this chapter in my trading journey instead of mym/ym because the mnq offers more trading opportunity on a 1 minute chart than the mym/ym 1 minute. The mnq offers enough volatility and dollar bites just enough where my stops will stay logical. MYM I’ll use very wide stops and get a high win rate but it always feels reckless.
All feedback is absolutely welcome I appreciate you even taking time to go through my trading statistics. This is my last attempt to try and trade the Nasdaq profitably .
We are tiny fishes in this big financial ocean. Our trading size is less than miniscule, in any of the 3 US indices. Unless you trade obscure stocks, liquidity shouldn't be your concern. Stick to what worked for you. You can obviously continue this NQ experiment but not for liquidity reasons.
That's your holygrail and you don't even realize it. 'very wide stops'. Don't assume that your high win rate of 85% is just due to wide stops. Your low MAE suggests that price doesn't move AGAINST you by much. This means your overall read on the market is good and you are giving your trades enough room to breathe and move. Yes, MNQ offers more volatility and more trading opportunity. The question is, do you want more trading or make more money? The irony is that you want more trading but yet neglect 50% of the opportunities aka shorting.
Increasing your holding period should be your priority, rather than chasing the right instrument. For instance, I hold for a minimum of 2.5 hrs and often till the end of the day. Yesterday was a good example of my strategy. My market analysis and past stats were bearish. Hence, I shorted the market @ open, tolerated some MAE, then scaled out 1/2 for a decent profit @ 70% of ATR. The remaining half was closed at the end of the day with zero monitoring or interference from me. I chose SPY instead of MES as it improves my discipline and execution. I want to make money with as little drama as possible. Obviously my method on ly works for me and you have to find yours. It looks like you already had one.
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If you can slowly master shorting as well, then you are doubling your trading opportunities and your profit potential. I know how hard it is change our core beliefs and destructive trading behaviour. I was a permabear and 70% of my trades were short for several years.
You may be interested to know that during your '2015 to 2020 bullish period, i.e 1490 full trading days, closing price was below the opening price on 680 days. i.e 46% red candle days. So, yes, you can make money shorting bull markets as a trader. As an investor, you make money buying bull markets.
This is something I had never considered, in regards to your comment on dow and wide stops. I completely agree with the liquidity argument and point retail traders need not worry about t as it is way above any size we trade to be a concern. ES is just preached as the market to trade but it clearly is my wort instrument by a mile.
I also agree the investor brain and being a permabull just does not serve me when trying to be a consistent day trader.
