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Gambling my house on the S&P500 (MICRO)


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  #1 (permalink)
IronHarbor834
Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
 
Posts: 4 since Aug 2026
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 4

[AI-assisted]

Hey everyone,

Starting this journal to track my intraday trades on the S&P 500 (MES/ES) and build some real accountability. A quick rundown of my setup and approach:

Setup

Instrument: MES (Micro E-mini S&P 500), occasionally ES
Position size: 1 contract, sometimes 2
Broker/Platform: AMP Futures, live account, ATAS Ultra with Rithmic feed
Session: starts at market open
Entry window: looking for setups roughly in the first 3 hours of the session

My edge / what I'm reading

Volume Profile — VAH, VAL, VPOC, and naked VPOCs as key reference levels
Footprint charts — reading absorption and delta divergence at key levels
Order flow via Smart DOM — bid/ask clustering, iceberg activity

Risk management rules

Max 3 losing trades per day
30-tick stop loss
Targets in the 2.5R–3.5R range

Why I'm posting this
Mostly for discipline — writing it down forces honesty about what actually happened vs. what I think happened. Also looking to connect with other order-flow / volume-profile traders and get real feedback, not just post P&L screenshots.

A quick note before I start: I'm posting this now rather than waiting to have everything "perfectly" defined — there's no real reason to delay. That said, expect small tweaks to the specifics (stop size, loss limits, etc.) over the next few days as I dial things in. The core strategy — order flow + Volume Profile based entries — will stay the same.

I'll update this thread regularly with trade recaps: entry reasoning, chart screenshot, result, and a short note on the psychology side of the trade (that part matters as much to me as the technicals).

Appreciate any feedback, especially from anyone else running a similar loss-limit approach.


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  #2 (permalink)
IronHarbor834
Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
 
Posts: 4 since Aug 2026
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 4

[AI-assisted]

**Update Aug 7, 2026 — Win**

**Pre-Session Read**

1. Price wicked above the previous highs, liquidating all shorts, and kept pushing up with strong, vertical momentum — no pullback to the downside at all.
2. On this second day of the vertical move, price kept climbing in premarket, but more slowly this time — building more long liquidity.
3. At the open, sellers finally managed to stop the continuation attempts — something they couldn't do the day before.
4. Price fell hard, sweeping all the prior lows, finally giving sellers real momentum after failing to stop price up top the whole rally.
5. Price stalled right after sweeping the lows and started ranging — both sides fighting to stop price.
6. One more push higher got stopped again, and price dropped below, liquidating the longs from that zone.

**Setup:** MES, short, 1 contract

**Entry:** 7766.25 — after the failed continuation at the open and the sweep of the prior highs, I read this as sellers finally taking control after two days of failed attempts to stop the rally.

**Management:** 30-tick stop, no adjustments during the trade

**Exit:** TP at 7745.75 → 20.50 points / 82 ticks in my favor = $102.50 on 1 contract, 2.93R

**Psychology:** Felt pretty confident going into this one. Only mild mental friction: I could've gotten a slightly better price a few minutes earlier, but I hesitated and didn't take it — price then dropped fast from that level. That confirmed my stop loss was placed right, since if price had come back up to that earlier level, my stop would've validated the short being invalid. Extended my TP a bit further based on that read.


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  #3 (permalink)
SoberTrader
Las Vegas
 
Posts: 158 since Feb 2026
Thanks Given: 26
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IronHarbor834 View Post
[AI-assisted]

**Update Aug 7, 2026 — Win**

**Pre-Session Read**

1. Price wicked above the previous highs, liquidating all shorts, and kept pushing up with strong, vertical momentum — no pullback to the downside at all.
2. On this second day of the vertical move, price kept climbing in premarket, but more slowly this time — building more long liquidity.
3. At the open, sellers finally managed to stop the continuation attempts — something they couldn't do the day before.
4. Price fell hard, sweeping all the prior lows, finally giving sellers real momentum after failing to stop price up top the whole rally.
5. Price stalled right after sweeping the lows and started ranging — both sides fighting to stop price.
6. One more push higher got stopped again, and price dropped below, liquidating the longs from that zone.

**Setup:** MES, short, 1 contract

**Entry:** 7766.25 — after the failed continuation at the open and the sweep of the prior highs, I read this as sellers finally taking control after two days of failed attempts to stop the rally.

**Management:** 30-tick stop, no adjustments during the trade

**Exit:** TP at 7745.75 → 20.50 points / 82 ticks in my favor = $102.50 on 1 contract, 2.93R

**Psychology:** Felt pretty confident going into this one. Only mild mental friction: I could've gotten a slightly better price a few minutes earlier, but I hesitated and didn't take it — price then dropped fast from that level. That confirmed my stop loss was placed right, since if price had come back up to that earlier level, my stop would've validated the short being invalid. Extended my TP a bit further based on that read.

Nice trade, catching a 20 point rotation on mes

Not a orderflow trader but like your logic for entry


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  #4 (permalink)
IronHarbor834
Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
 
Posts: 4 since Aug 2026
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 4

[AI-assisted]

Update Aug 10, 2026 — Loss

Pre-Session Read

Price opened bullish and pushed up strongly, with VWAP acting as resistance the whole way — buyers unable to break above it.
Price finally broke above VWAP in one push, which I read as a wash/liquidity sweep — the last favorable entry before the day's real move.
Several clusters printed at the top of that candle right as price approached the Prev Day High.
I ignored what delta was telling me at the time and entered anyway.
In hindsight, the more likely read was long: after the bullish open, price kept attempting to test the Monthly VPOC without the strength to reach it, and my entry point was actually price returning to the pre-open range — not a breakdown point.

Setup: MES, short, 1 contract

Entry: 7779.75 — off the VWAP break, reading it as a liquidity wash right before the daily move.

Management: 30-tick stop at 7787.00 (Prev Day High), TP set at 7765.17 (monthly vPOC), no adjustments during the trade.

Exit: Stopped out at 7787.00 → 7.25 points / 29 ticks against me = -$36.25 on 1 contract.

Psychology: Admittedly a mediocre trade selection today. I got caught up in the cluster/wash narrative and didn't respect the delta, which wasn't confirming my short bias at all. After the stop, I left a Buy Limit at the level where price had failed to reach the Monthly VPOC — but price never came back to fill it. Lesson: when delta disagrees with the visual read, that's the signal to sit out, not force it.


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Last Updated on August 10, 2026


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