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What an interesting day on CL for IB traders. For the sake of brevity, I will comment only on IBs.
1st IB: after bouncing off 38% fib, playing for a re-test of the high... which did not happen. -30
2nd IB: the market already showed lot of hesitation. We're chopping. We are high, but don't want to go higher. Very poor contextual entry on my part. -30
3rd IB: bearish bias now as the market pulls back to R2 and flirts with it. The entry is the third test of R2... and as the market is not willing to go up, it makes a downward excursion and bounces off 61% fib. +20
4th/5th IB: no lunch trading.
Notes:
- Both losers were entries beyond R2 in direction of R3. Not sure what the stats are, but I am pretty sure that the market has a definite reverting tendency when moving away from R2 to R3 (or S2 to S3) more often than not. In order to handicap better, it is important to factor in not just where the pivots are, but what they are.
- Yes, -30 is perhaps a bit too much of a stop considering my profit taking level of 20. Maybe the other end of IB or 25 ticks, whichever is smaller.
The only IB this AM did not reach the profit target and reversed. Grabbed 30 ticks on the reversal.
IB trades this week: +20, +20, +20, -30, -30, +20, -18, +30 = +32 ticks for the week
I don't feel this is the best way to trade CL for me. It misses out on far too many great opportunities. This is not to say that Jeff's setup is lame (it isn't, and thank you Jeff for starting the thread), but merely that my personal preference does not lie in this direction. I do better with my other setups traded on shorter timeframes.
I just wanted to say a quick thank you for reporting your "experiment" with 15 minute inside bars on CL. I am very happy that it was a profitable experiment.
Hey Jeff I use similar setups with the inside bar and engulfment type patterns along with hammers and shooting stars I was using mine off a 5 minute chart. I am also a member of two trading rooms which are both phenominal, but I do not want to say what those are because I do not think that would be fair to big mikes website. If he says that its ok I will post them. Have you thought of having code written for your strategies. Thanks, Bob.
Personally I think taking an IB like this given the context would not be a good move.
1) It's oil, nuff said
2) We just rejected the high which was last made in 2008 I think, and came down 150 ticks
3) Libya, nuff said
4) It's Friday, 30 mins after the open
It's just the context that makes this particular type of trade dangerous IMO.
Is anybody still trading this? I just recently started reading it, but haven't made it through all the posts yet to see the complete evolution or whether the system finally broke down.
If you are still trading it, would you mind posting some results or statistics updates?
I have just been working my way through this thread and find IB's very interesting, but certainly not an unqualified success, but there are good trades. I had a question about whether anyone in this thread or IB trading group had ever tried a Reversing Stop at the back end of the IB. Here is one from today to show you what I mean. Would have worked out nicely to at least recover the loss from the trade, plus a scalp. Let me know if you all have tried it or back tested it.
I am still using Jeff's excellent Reversals V6_3 indicator attached & I have a coding request for which I am happy to pay : I also attach a Market Analyzer window into which I have inserted the indicator in 3 timeframes.
I would like the MA cells to color & alert as per the indicator when the relevant setup plots. I have no idea how to configure the MA Alert & Cell Conditions.