so the good sign is that forward looking support is activated

seasonality and likely the case for crude as well

bonds are also slightly supported only a bit

//

eye on crypto and smaller caps for this

mag7 is pushing via mgk less so vgk

carries responding aud over eur jpy

so the overshoot will play well with expiry

crude is helping indexes like dia slightly

and then resolution into quarter end

//

euro region is lagging with non mag7

while mag7 tech needs to break out

spy is decent mix but overshot

//

is anything strangely crypto is better behaved

carries also overshot with eur/jpy lagging

dollar attempts at breakout though ranged

different topic, but in the case schiller indexes

range bound pricing, some due to lack of supply, incentives to buy

the technical aspect is that there is convergence / flattening toward FY2025

//

the new builds and supply has already declined post covid though only a minor slice of inventory

and we saw that home building activity has also slowed which would further decrease supply

the boom bust is more evident in places like vegas where they extend and contract quickly

//

the hard cap from yields is also there along with some negative economic pressure

so the backdrop of a heavy asset class and gov debt are providing tough tailwinds

inflation can prop pricing but forced selling could finally trigger supply release

still some high gamma, some say that dark pools react inversely w/ gamma

regardless, hopefully unregardedly, we go into end of the quarter flows

also in crypto ether with some strength and the coin still dipping

//

then next month another nfp but separated by the 4th

eur region still lagging, nkd consolidating, china trying

hoping energy stays tame and ranged, w/ crude push

crypto dunk is contained, looking at nvda, mstr and main coins

satellite semis like tsm and asml also affected

financial sector via xlf looks okay esp. v

//

ibb biotech seems ok w/ alny and vrtx

with energy rising, looking good for dia

costs to support crypto may be a factor

negative data but technically we are pushing at higher levels

the exception is bonds, which are seeking guidance

so, saturation except the alternative in yields

//

some other factors pointing to dollar at high range

the yen is at a very low area trying to hold support

metals crypto pushed leaving energy commodities

//

gamma still high so just holding on really

another worrisome possibility is energy rising

energy hungry crypto / AI are vulnerable, inflation, etc.

energy still holding and bonds as well

interesting about tsla vs other competitors

also interesting about some components of ibb

//

new homes via tol, kbh proxies are reacting faster

seeing a range of [30-60] so in effect on avg 45 ish

the vegas boom bust would be helpful but no data on that

the indexes are moving toward the resistance band

vxx also moves toward the support band

primed for areas of reaction into powell

that klarman margin of safety is thinning out

xom is in a good spot and lng w/ extra divy

bond (pimco) as well and almost w/ schd

//

in mag7 tsla seems the least ridiculous

fold magnitude usage of ai vs normal search

may be a bottleneck, unless parsimony is included

the dow is at the fringe, but with space

arm or a(risc)m a low powered chip

where ai is power hungry

//

energy and commodities unfort are rising

according to cpi there is some room

vol is still a sleeping beast