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I'm getting faster cable modem internet next week, so I wanted to write down a few speed tests as of today so I can compare them after the upgrade. Right now I have 15/2 from TWC, the upgrade will put it to 50/5 which is as fast as they go.
There is a lot of talk about where the S&P is heading and I just got this news letter written by Ed Ponsi.
Thought I'd post it here..... Gotta love the second story....
Does the "Death Cross" spell doom for the stock market?
Technical analysts are all abuzz over the impending "Death Cross" on the S&P 500. No, this is not a reference to "Star Wars", nor is it the title of a new album by Black Sabbath. A Death Cross simply means that the 50 day moving average has crossed below the 200 day moving average, and is considered to be a very negative omen in the trading community. As you can see on the chart below, the 50-day moving average (green) has been creeping ever closer to the 200-day moving average (red). The two simple moving averages are separated by just 3 points on the hard right edge of the chart, making their crossing inevitable. In fact, by the time you read this, the moving averages may already have crossed.
It is the S&P 500, and not the Dow Jones Industrial Average, that represents "the market" to most U.S. professional traders. On the left side of the chart, we see the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day, the so-called "Golden Cross," and the impressive rally that ensued. But does the approaching Death Cross - along with the Head and Shoulder pattern that many insist is visible in the chart above - signal the beginning of a precarious drop for U.S. stocks, an event that could have a dramatic impact on the Forex market?
Not necessarily. Research from Canadian brokerage company Brockhouse and Cooper indicates that since 1970, the dreaded Death Cross leads to an average loss of just 0.4% in the first month following the crossover. The way the stock market has been trading lately - losing more than 1% of its value on numerous days in June - a loss of less than one-half of one percent over the course of month would be considered a welcome victory.
Wait, it gets better. On average, the S&P 500 gains 2.5% over the following three months, and climbs 4.8% over the next six months after the dreaded cross, since 1970 according to the Montreal-based brokerage.
Does this mean that we should buy instead of sell? Again, not necessarily, because to go long in the teeth of a vicious downtrend can lead to a horrible result - just ask anyone who bought into the stock market after the most recent Death Cross, which occurred in late December of 2007. The result for the S&P 500 was a loss of 11.72% during the first month, and a whopping 41.28% decline for the following year.
What I'm saying is this - don't expect the market to crash just because the financial press is in a tizzy over this indicator. It makes for interesting conversation, and helps to fill hours and hours of empty space (as required by broadcasters and journalists mired in a 24-hour news cycle), but that alone doesn't give it significance.
So if the Death Cross is not such a big deal after all, then why all the fuss? My guess is the ominous-sounding name has given this indicator more notoriety than it really deserves. This isn't the first time I've seen people get excited about an eerie sounding indicator that turned out to be less of a big deal than anticipated.
For example, have you ever heard of the "Hanging Man" candle formation? This alleged reversal candle is one of the most useless patterns I've ever encountered (in my humble opinion; your results may vary), and yet it seems to be a topic of fascination for some traders. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm guessing that indicators with dreadful names inspire a type of curious fascination among traders. Which is why I'm naming my new indicator the "Darth Piranha".
The Well Oiled Oil Trader
Perhaps you recall the curious case of oil trader Steven Perkins; last year, Mr. Perkins was blamed for single-handedly driving the price of crude higher by $1.65 in the middle of the night. Perkins claims to have been in an alcohol-induced blackout at the time and can't recall the unauthorized trades, which cost his employer $10 million to unwind. This past Tuesday in the U.K., the F.S.A. (Financial Services Authority) ruled that Mr. Perkins may not trade for five years and must pay a $107,000 fine.
The regulatory agency came down hard on Perkins not only because of the unauthorized trades, but also because he allegedly lied to cover up the snafu. But the FSA's jurisdiction does not include Switzerland, where Perkins has just landed a job as - you guessed it - a commodities trader. Perkins signed his contract in Geneva exactly one day after the FSA.'s ruling. No word yet on whether job offers have also been extended to Nick Leeson and Jerome Kervial.
All kidding aside, I'm guessing that Perkins' new employers feel that the guy is a good trader who made a mistake, and that's fine - nothing wrong with second chances. The moral to the story - friends don't let friends trade drunk!