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As I've read your thread it has been hard at times to understand the justification for some of your trades.....especially in light of the fact that you have entitled the thread "price action."
Take today for instance..........all the countertrend when the price action clearly showed we were going up the first hour and a half of trading.
I saw three longs as demonstrated by the attached chart.........nice work on the reversal!
Yeah, Jeff, when I did my post game analysis I was a little miffed at myself for once again not seeing the forest for the trees. This was clearly an up trending market, yet my first few trades were primarily counter trend. The main reason was I didn't see a way in to the trend, and was taking the signals as they came.
I think I let the recent price action color my thinking on the first trade. For example, I had a sell stop order sitting under the doji that closed on the EMA at 05:15 and kept it there until price pushed above the EMA. I think that was a good setup that just didn't get executed, but here's where my thought process broke down: there was an area of resistance at the 87.48 level that I was watching and was expecting price to bounce off of. Probably because I was still thinking 'short' after not getting filled on the short trade.
On my second trade I tried to get long, but was taken out by the pull back.
My third trade wasn't really bad even though it was counter trend. What I neglected to do was calculate a target of 15 ticks on the trade, which I would have gotten. Price was too close to the EMA to expect more than that.
The 4th trade was premature. Price hit that big resistance area and I jumped the gun. The shooting star was a nice confirmation of that resistance level, and I got short on that.
Your chart looks interesting. Would you please explain it to me? I see the longs, I just don't understand the entry points.
Oh, and I named the journal 'Price Action' because I'm not using any indicators (well, volume and a 20 EMA if you want to get technical). I really am trying to look at what price is doing and has done and basing my trades on that. As you've noticed, it's still very much a work in progress.
On your first trade..........it was a little close the the open for me........it has been my experience that the open of any market is a bit jerky........personally....I try to give it a few minutes to settle down......I call it "doing the second thing" or an opening range play.....if you have one.
As far as the chart that I posted is concerned.......I am not advocating any particuliar indicators........even though I use the CCI.......my eyes are focused on the price, support and resistance, globex high/low, previous days close/high/low.
I have tremendous respect for traders that do NOT get caught in the indicator TRAP......and you are among them. Keep up the good work.
Here is a marked up chart.........I've drawn entry levels and intial stops on the chart......for money management I prefer the scale out mentality....first scale at +8 and move the stop up.........
Even though I use the CCI.......it is NOT necessary.
Decided to call it an early day today and go out and enjoy the rain. Volume on CL has been really light.
Happy with the way the day turned out. Up 11 ticks overall, but the important thing is the data I collected. There were 7 trades I passed on, and all 7 would have been either BE or winners. That log is the best idea - thanks again Mike.
Trade #1
After a big rise and pullback, CL made a double top. Went short after the 06:05 bar and entered on a limit order. Since the trend was up, I considered this a counter-trend trade and put in a fixed target of 15 ticks which I easily got on that 70 tick drop. +15
CL oscillated for awhile, forming an ascending channel. One day I'll be able to trade a channel.
Trade #2
I was waiting for a test of the 06:55 pivot high and tried to get in early. When the 07:20 bar closed above the EMA, placed a buy limit at 89.53 and was filled on the next bar. I liked the way the 15 min chart was forming a right triangle and was expecting a breakout to the upside. However, after sitting in the trade a few minutes, I didn't like the decreasing volume and the double top my entry bar formed, so I tightened up the stop and was taken out. My initial stop was below the 07:20 bar. The next lesson for me is to let the trade play out. -7 ticks.
Trade #3
After failing to make a HH on the 07:50 bar, I went short after the close below the EMA on a limit order. I had a tight stop, but was taken out. -4 ticks.
Trade #4
The market blasted through the resistance area around 89.80 and started a pullback. I bought the pullback at 89.76 on the 09:05 bar with a tight stop, still respecting that area of resistance. When price hit the high of my entry bar and started to move back, I moved my stop up tight and was taken out. -1 Tick.
Uhm, so why trade if volume is light? I don't mean to state the obvious, but I do mean for you to take into account your actions so you can not repeat the bad ones